Thread by @AlexsandrKislov

1) A thread on Trump and the fragility of the regime.

This is the most iconic image of 21st century America since the photos of the planes hitting the Twin Towers.

It may prove to be even more historically significant.

This is how Trump returned to Twitter after 31 months.

2) The malevolent idiots in the regime gave Trump the PR opportunity of a lifetime with that photo.

They managed to make this 77 year-old man a martyr while also making him look like a badass straight out of a Hollywood revenge fantasy.

3) They also fully radicalized the man who controls the most important communications platform in the world against them, the same day that their number one enemy began using that platform again.

https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1694761446452908208?s=20

4) Unless Trump dies, or unless they actually succeed at putting him in prison and getting him off of the ballot, they just guaranteed that he will be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024.

5) All of the legal arcana related to the case and eventual courtroom proceedings are completely irrelevant.

No normal person will take the time to examine or understand the facts of the case.

How one already feels about Trump will be the only measure by which he is judged.

6) If they're really stupid, they'll put television cameras in that courtroom.

And they will, because they won't be able to help themselves.

It's going to like throwing Brer Rabbit into the briar patch.

Televising that trial will only help Trump and make the regime look weak.

7) If anyone was still under the delusion that there might be a path back to the functioning of the system as we once knew it, they will be disabused of that notion.

Things will only accelerate from here.

The regime can't stop. It won't stop.

It's pedal to the metal now.

8) There are only five possible outcomes for Trump in 2024 now:

a) He will be acquitted, but give up and leave public life
b) He will go to prison
c) He will die
d He will lose reelection (by means fair or foul)
e) He will win reelection

9) Any of these outcomes will greatly increase the instability of the system.

Any of them will cause tens of millions of people to lose faith in the system.

Any of them are bad news for the regime and will make it even more fragile.

Let's examine them one by one.

10) Trump being acquitted, but giving up and leaving public life is the least likely outcome of all.

It won't happen. It's not in his nature.

But if it did, his supporters would be stuck with the Republican primary circle jerk. They would revolt. It would destroy the GOP.

11) I also think it is unlikely they will succeed at putting Trump in prison.

But if they did, ther is no walking that back. The resulting anger and unrest would make January 6 look like a few picketers.

I think there would be widespread violence. The mask would be fully off.

12) It's possible that Trump could die.

At the point we're at, it's possible that they might just kill him. But even if they didn't, millions of people would believe that they did.

Again, I think there would be widespread violence, further accelerating events.

13) It's quite possible that he could lose reelection. It's even possible that he could lose without them cheating.

But they will cheat, whether they need to or not. It's in their nature, and they can't help themselves.

But either way, his supporters will believe they cheated.

14) But the worst possible outcome of all for the regime (and the reason that they will use any means necessary to ensure that it doesn't) would be for Trump to win.

This, more than any other outcome, will fatally weaken the system, and expose the fragility of the regime.

15) There is no escape from the path that we're on. Any possible outcome puts us on a downward spiral of distrust, anger, disillusionment, systems failure, and, eventually, violence.

16) The regime has put itself in a position where neither side can back down. It has already crossed the point of no return.

Where we're headed is inevitable now. It's just a matter of whether it happens quickly or slowly.

17) The regime has to destroy Trump, and he has to destroy it.

The only exit ramp now would be the regime winning, and somehow moderating and co-opting or containing the opposition, but I don't think they're capable of doing it.

The storm is coming. Prepare accordingly.

18) And as a companion piece to this thread on Trump and regime fragility, I highly recommend this excellent article by @TheWorthyHouse

theworthyhouse.com/2022/10/31/on-…

19) Additional required reading on this topic by Michael Anton, even more relevant than when he wrote it 13 months ago.

"I don’t know which possibility is scarier: that they haven’t thought any of this through, or that they have."

compactmag.com/article/they-c…

20) There may eventually be a "national divorce", but it will never happen peacefully.

It won't happen peacefully for the same reason a wife in an abusive marriage can't get a divorce. Her husband would rather kill her than grant her a divorce. If he can't have her, no one can.

21) The idea that there could be a peaceful national divorce is the bargaining phase that comes after denial and anger.

It's something that people say when they realize what time it is, but are not yet able or willing to think our situation through to its logical conclusion.