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In May 2022, Lockheed and Northrop figures told defence committee that UK MoD had no yet firmed up plans for F-35s beyond the 48 in Tranche 1 (over 30 of which are in use, with deliveries ending in 2025; production lot 17). That was not unexpected, though, it was still early days 
A Written Answer the month before (25 april 2022) had revealed that funding had been delegated to Air Command for a second tranche of F-35s. This means money is formally "handed over" from Central MOD to the relevant Command to begin the procurement effort.
In December 2022, the US DoD committed a first billion+ USD in Long Lead Items for F-35 production lot 18, at the time comprising 118 jets, with more to be added along the way as multiple customers completed their own planning and appropriation processes.
In January 2023, Alex Chalk MP updated the committee via letter saying Tranche 2 "of 26 jets" would uplift the fleet to 74 F-35Bs and add a third frontline squadron by 2033. Note that 48+26 indeed add up to 74, but if you subtract the lost ZM152 (BK-18) the fleet would be 73.
In July 2023, the US DoD awarded a contract modification to Lot 18 Long Lead orders which, while of modest amount (99 million USD), specified that Lot 18 was now 147 aircraft (up from 118 in the first award in December 2022).
Also last month, 10 July 2023, James Cartlidge MP further updated Committee. Tranche 2 is 27 aircraft (so replacing lost ZM152/BK-18 and giving an effective fleet of 74). 809 NAS stand up in December, Prince of Wales Shipborne Rolling Vertical Landing trials in September.
Finally, 22 august 2023, DoD placed a 606 million contract for Long Lead items for Production Lot 19 as well, which will be 173 jets.
The DoD announcements does not provide us the split by customers, but Lot 18 and 19 are the first lots in which UK's Tranche 2 could start.
The DoD announcements does not provide us the split by customers, but Lot 18 and 19 are the first lots in which UK's Tranche 2 could start.
With deliveries expected to wrap up by 2033 and with the indicative 2-year interval between order year and delivery, the production lots of UK interest are, in theory, those from Lot 18 to Lot 25 included, so in practice a rate in the region of 3-4 jets per year.
If you are an MP with an interest in defence and you are following me, the right question to file to Ministers is "how many UK F-35s are included in production lots 18, 19 and 20" which are the next trio that will eventually go under contract. You are welcome. 😆
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