Thread by @michaeldweiss

New "Karl" observations on the state of the counteroffensive, Western agita, and the death of Prigozhin, as told to @holger_r and myself: 🧵

"Most stretches on the frontlines have remained quite stable. The only one with very high activity is the southern front where Ukraine is pushing strongly in at least two directions: most fiercely in Robotyne but actively also in the direction of Staromlynivka to the east."

"The pace of advancing in the Robotyne direction has clearly improved. It is not hyper fast but also not anymore only 1-2 kms per week. It’s faster. Ukraine’s “tooth” has already reached quite far from Robotyne. It is 15 kms ahead of the rest of the frontline in that direction."

"Now they need to start advancing the flanks as well, otherwise it will become too risky for them. The width of the 'tooth' needs to be 20+ kms, otherwise Russian artillery will be able to hit them from every side."

"And Ukraine is working on the flanks. Over the last few days they have tried to pass Robotyne both from east and west directions. On the eastern side they even passed towards the village of Ocheretuvate between Robotyne and Verbove..."

"On the Western side they are moving towards Kopani and are as well trying to widen their territory."

"Most likely they have passed through the first line of defense. Now the question is how large and strong is the second line. There are differing opinions, some say it is even stronger but others say the exact opposite."

"For sure the areas between the first and second line are not so heavily mined as it was in front of the first line. If there were only lone paths between the 1st and 2nd line, Ukraine would have spotted them and would know to use them."

"Russia has tried to advance on other parts of the frontline. 1.5 months ago they even had some degree of success on the border areas of the Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts but Ukraine took most of the gained areas quickly back in counterattacks."

"Allegedly Russia has more than 100,000 men in that direction but their activity doesn’t correspond to such a high number in any way."

"Their attempts to attack are quite local. Under Bakhmut the frontline has practically stalled and it’s the same under Mariinka and Avdiivka."

"Active fighting is also going on on the banks of the Dnipro river where Russia is worried about Ukraine gathering additional forces and starting a larger offensive. I don’t think this is likely to happen. But Ukraine has managed to hold on the bridgeheads."

"The fighting is very active in the delta of the Dnipro river. Russian war correspondents say the situation there is difficult. They are blaming their leadership for not providing enough artillery and aviation support."

"Ukraine’s perspective now is to get back the first larger town on the Western front, Tokmak. They are roughly 15kms away from it. Larger goals remain the same: to reach Melitopol and the Azov Sea and to cut Russia’s land connection to Crimea and the Eastern bank of Dnipro."

"The remaining window is 2 months. The time remaining to achieve this success is getting shorter. Inevitably this gives you a feeling that Ukraine might need to finalize these goals next spring or summer."

"The deciding factor is how much reserves each side has. Russia has already brought the remains of Pskov 76th VDV Division from the north. It is not the same men who started the war from the 76th division."

"Many of them were killed and wounded. But Russia has been fixing the unit with mobilized former military personnel and the 76th is now still stronger than an average Russian unit."

"The fact that they brought the 76th away from the north shows that Russia doesn’t have many reserves and their situation is critical. At the same time we don’t know much of Ukraine’s reserves."

"The next 2-3 weeks will decide how far Ukraine will be able to advance. They will need to widen their advance significantly in order to gain large territorial wins."

"If winter puts a break on the offensive, it will be much more difficult for Russia to build new defensive lines. Ukraine will not be able to hit every corner where Russia would start digging with HIMARS or Storm Shadows, but it will still be much more complicated to dig in."

"I don’t see Russia having a larger offensive capacity this winter. The covert mobilization continues all the time in Russia but they can’t fill the target of 400,000 recruits by end of year. It will be 250,000, max. It will not be enough to mount a larger attack."

"Ukraine will also need to create their reserves and hope that their air force will be significantly stronger by spring."

"The F-16s will change the balance in air. Ukraine started the war with around 70 jets. Maybe a few were downed but most of them are plainly outdated. Their flight hours have hopelessly passed."

"They have received some Soviet-era fighter jets as aid but I don’t think that the overall number would still be more than 70."

"Russia has 5-6 times more power in the air. Additionally Russia’s fighter jets are more modern. F-16s will balance out the modernity issue. If they receive 70-80 F-16s, it will significantly change the balance. Maybe not tilt it towards Kyiv but at least equal the field."

"Ukraine’s drone attack capabilities have been growing continuously. There were at least 2 remarkable attacks in the last month. First the hit on Soltsy air base far from Ukraine’s territory. Ukraine is saying that the attack was carried out from Russian soil."

"The goal is to grow the tensions between the Russian army and the FSB because if it was carried out from Russian territory, it means the FSB missed it."

"The second remarkable drone attack was destroying the S-400 missile-system complex in Crimea."

"These were extraordinary events."

"We must note that also Russia’s capability to use Shahed drones may increase. If they start assembling the Shaheds on their territory, they will have a larger number of drones to use. Ukraine air defense can take most of them down, but it still wears them out."

"On a political level there are no issues with Western support for Ukraine right now. All the doubts in Western media are coming from either anonymous sources or exes (ex-military, ex-politicians, ex-officials)."

"Western governments seem to commonly agree that Ukraine’s support needs to continue and be increased."

"It seems to me that even if Ukraine doesn’t reach the Azov by winter, there will not be strong pressure for agreements with Russia. Everyone understands that you can’t make a deal with Putin."

"The deal lasts exactly as long as it is useful to Putin. As we saw, the deal with Prigozhin lasted 2 months."

"By eliminating Prigozhin Putin showed Russian society how he deals with people he sees as traitors. So that no one would forget about it. But it doesn’t solve Russia’s problems with criticism of their army’s weakness to achieve success. It won’t reduce the criticism."

"Prigozhin was the most vocal of them and was killed. Girikin is in prison. So maybe other critics are more cautious but the blogosphere still has the same tonality."

/END