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Real-time data update: we've got our first BA.2.86 (see red arrow) neutralization results. Short 🧵with much credit to @DannySheward and the rest of the team. 
Our initial data takes two cohorts of blood donors from Stockholm: one from before XBB arrived in late 2022, and one from last week. Exposure histories (ie. vaccination and infection) are exceptionally diverse at this point, so we prefer a random slice with well-defined timing.
The variants we compare are BA.2, the recently-dominant XBB.1.5, and BA.2.86, which emerges from BA.2 with a long branch, with over 30 spike mutations of unobserved evolution. An uncomfortably familiar situation. (figure hat tip @PeacockFlu)
The pre-XBB samples were poor at neutralizing BA.2.86 (and not much better against XBB.1.5). But, somewhat encouragingly, last week's samples were substantially better, with 8 out of 12 neutralizing BA.2.86 at titers over 100.
We also screened a few monoclonal antibodies. BA.2.86 was resistant against all of these, including sotrovimab (which was previously quite robust, if not very potent).
These blood donor and monoclonal antibody results are largely concordant with those that @yunlong_cao posted yesterday.
Overall, it doesn't appear to be nearly as extreme a situation as the original emergence of Omicron. It isn't yet clear whether BA.2.86 (or its offspring) will outcompete the currently-circulating variants, and I don't think there is yet any data about its severity, but...
...our antibodies do not appear to be completely powerless against it.
The fact, however, that another Omicron-like emergence event has occurred, with that long unobserved branch and subsequent spread, should warn us against giving up our genomic surveillance infrastructure.
The fact, however, that another Omicron-like emergence event has occurred, with that long unobserved branch and subsequent spread, should warn us against giving up our genomic surveillance infrastructure.
In the coming days we'll be adding to this data, increasing the number of samples, and possibly adding a few variants into the mix.
Again, credit to @dannysheward and the team (I'm not 100% sure who wants to be singled out in public), the people tirelessly depositing genomes (including @Jan_Albert_ here at KI), and to folks like @shay_fleishon and @LongDesertTrain who so rapidly spot these variants.
Forgot to mention (thanks @StuartTurville!): this is from a pseudovirus assay.
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