Thread by @CheGiaevara

*THREAD*

Manchester United have signed Sofyan Amrabat. A hard-nosed, rough and tumble type of midfielder, that'll do the grafting for the side. At least, that's what you'd think, right?

How does he stats back up that impression? Well, let's have a look!

Primarily, the easiest place to start is to look at apperances, and how reliant Manchester United can be on Amrabat.

Transfermarkt reported that Amrabat missed a total of 5 matches last season through injury. He played a total of 29 league matches, 24 he started for Fiorentina.

And already here we see something interesting:

Amrabat was booked a total of 11 times during the course of the league season. He missed 2 matches due to accumulation of cards.

In comparison, Casemiro missed 7(!) matches due to suspension. Two straight reds, and accumulation.

Casemiro is the natural comparison with Amrabat, both in terms of how similar (or not) they are, but also how they can compliment each other.

Using WyScout, and looking at their league and European competition head maps, this is what we see.

Amrabat (left) and Casemiro (right)

For comparison, we will also include McTominay (left) and Fred (right) to give an indication as to the differences in role.

Casemiro affects the came in a lot of areas, Fred and McTominay appear in different areas.

Amrabat remains centrally. The shield in front of defence.

"But Jonas, United play a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3! Maybe Amrabat played in a different system?"

Perhaps there are modifications, but Vincenzo Italiano has preferred a 4-3-3/4-2-3-1-system for the most part during his stint at Fiorentina.

Here's an example from the UECL final:

Right, so what do you expect Amrabat to do? One of the things you expect him to do is intercept, and win the ball back, right?

We are using matches in league and Europe for this thread, and WyScout show Amrabat at intercepting the ball 3.11 times per match.

Casemiro? 6.99(!)

Even Fred (4.8) and McTominay (4.13) smashes Amrabat in this regard. Looking at "loose ball duels won", Amrabat clocks in at 3.03 a match, winning 50%.

Casemiro? 3.44, with 53.1%.
Fred? 4.48, with 41.4%.
McTominay? 3.01, with 52%

Marginal differences, right?

Where Amrabat might seem like a huge liability is the amount of fouls. As we saw earlier, he picks up A LOT of cards.

WyScout clock him in at comitting 2.17 fouls per match, beating Casemiro (1.61), Fred (2.13) and McTominay (1.82).

So, where does Amrabat actually improve United? He's marginally better or worse than Fred and McTominay, and a downgrade from Casemiro in terms of his defensive work.

Well, it is what he does WITH the ball that has gotten overlooked.

Though it is right that Amrabat runs and tackles, it is with the ball he shines.

Using Fbref and their stats center, these numbers speak for themselves ...

This is how Amrabat scores in terms of passing, compared to his peers, over the whole course of 22/23 Serie A season.

Let's move back to WyScout, and compare compare their numbers.

Amrabat would attempt 61,46 passes a game, with a 92,5% completion rate.

That's a solid upgrade on Casemiro (54,87, with 81,5%), Fred (45,61, with 83,2%) and McTominay (30,81, with 85,6%).

A passing center.

If anything, you would think Amrabat can actually take some pressure off Casemiro to strike the long balls, and switch play.

Casemiro attempted the long ball 7,45 times, and completed 60% of them during matches. Amrabat only did it 4,7, but still completed 77,2%. Upgrade.

Amrabat is also a progressive passer. He attempted to bass the ball into the final third 10.06% last season, completing 87%.

Casemiro is close with his 9,39 attempts, but only 68.5% successful. Both Fred and McTominay with higher percentages, but much lower attempts.

An underrated feature is receiving the ball, and actually being the one that the defence relies on. And you see how important has been to this from his position.

He received the ball, on average, 45.57 times during a game. More than Casemiro (39,73), Fred (33,2) and McT (20,98)

"But Jonas, why is Amrabat contributing with so many passes into the final third? I thought he sits deep?"

Indeed he does, heat map shows that. However, if he constantly sits deep, he'd probably be caught off-guard a lot.

And here are a few tasty numbers from WyScout:

Amrabat lost the ball 5.98 times during a match, 34.5% of these in his own half.

Casemiro? 12,1 times. 42.4% in own half.

Amrabat recovers the ball 8.62 times during a match, 49,1% in the opposing half.

Casemiro? 13.1 times. 35,1% in opposing half.

One wins it, one keeps it.

"You still didn't answer why Amrabat keeps passing it into the third half!"

Kinda did. But I can try to explain it in another way:

Lets move back to Fbref, and "take ons". Basically, players carrying the ball. Amrabat scored high in Serie A last season.

In terms of "successful dribbles", Amrabat averages 0.86 a match, with 51.5% successful. In terms of "progressive runs" (with ball) he is all the way up at 1.88.

He is actually higher on dribbles than Casemiro (0.7, with 53.8 successful) and much more on progressive runs (0.48)

Interestingly enough, in terms of progressive runs, he even beats out Declan Rice (1.78) from last season at West Ham. Though Rice's heat map shows he was way more dynamic.

Rice, however, trumps Amrabat in terms of dribbling with 1.66, with 63.7% successful ones.

IN CONCLUSION: Amrabat won't necessarily improve United defensively, but he certainly is no downgrade. If anything, he will provide the shield Casemiro needs.

United will have a calm passer, and someone comfortable on the ball when building up. A calming, Moroccan presence.