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Assuming ABC News reporting is accurate re ATACMS, a very wise move by the administration. Here’s a short thread as to why: 🧵
It eliminates the last big item on Ukraine’s 16 month-long shopping list — a liar HUR provided me in Ukraine in April 2022. This is literally everything the last of what wanted since the early days of the war. (Cluster bombs were even on the list.)
It also calls Russia’s bluff about retaliation, now rendered especially ridiculous in light of successive Ukrainian strikes against strategic Russia targets (including a nuclear bomber) well within Russian territory, all of which led not to World War III.
It puts Russian logistics in Ukraine at greater risk, and further allows Kyiv to target mobile Russian AD: the ATACMS is a particularly useful munition against time-sensitive targets. (An S-300 crew can displace in 15-30 mins; too quick for Storm Shadow or SCALP but not ATACMS.)
Finally, creates much-needed redundancy for Ukraine’s deep-strike capability. The 7th Tactical Aviation Brigade is based at Starokostiantyniv Air Base, in Khmelnytskyi Oblast; this is the brigade that operates the Su-24M boomers that fire Storm Shadows.
Russia has hit the base before. Should it take out some or all the bombers on the tarmac, Ukraine will lose its valuable CM launch platforms. The U.S. cannot send more Su-24M; it can, however, send more HIMARS or M270s, which fire ATACMS. /END.
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