Thread by @InvertTheWing

Tottenham, Manchester City, and Arsenal will all face off in a historic title race. A title race that, in a perfect world, will go on towards the last few gameweeks. A title race that will impact the next decade of football. A title race we will never have seen before.

THREAD on who I think will come out superior, and why.

The current mount rushmore of football managers: Pep Guardiola, Thomas Tuchel, Mikel Arteta, and Ange Postecoglou.

3 of them are in the same league. 3 of them manage some of the biggest clubs in the world.

How often does such a scenario happen, that too with equally balanced teams?

I made some pre-season predictions regarding the table, but never delved into detail. So this is what this thread will do.

If you all recall, my predictions were as followed:

1. Arsenal
2. Manchester City
3. Tottenham Hotspur

The other positions are irrelevant for the scope of this thread. What truly matters in football is winning.

The order of thes 3 teams is not so clear. And by putting Arsenal first, that is not saying they are guaranteed this title. There are a lot of variables that come into play, some more than others.

And taking into account these factors, looking at this like a Monte Carlo simulation, Arsenal ultimately comes out on top.

Let's look at my initial predictions like this:

If you ran this season 10,000 times, starting the season with every squad in their ideal scenario. You would get multiple winners within each simulation, you may see times like Brighton, West Ham, or even Brentford in a few.

But ultimately, there would be a few teams that dominate this simulation. And these 3 teams are the 3 teams that as a matter of fact did dominate such a simulation, almost in a ratio of 1:1:1, with Arsenal being a marginally more common occurance, hence having them at the top.

Arsenal, and Manchester City. Perhaps an outbreak of a certain disease within each squad that puts out their starting XI for a prolonged period of time, allowing the likes of Brighton to take the title, which would be the case in some simulations.

Other scenarios may play out perfectly, which would result in Tottenham taking the title. No injuries, no scandals, a perfect dressing room morale obtained, nothing.

But sometimes you do get things like injuries, falling outs, etc. and with the feasibility of these, Arsenal ultimately came out on top throughout most of my simulations.

That does not mean they will win. But they are simply very very marginally more suited towards winning

Let me discuss the scenarios in which each of these teams can win the league, and what the table would like in a "perfect" scenario.

We have to talk about an ideal scenario. A season where there are no injuries, no dressing room fallouts, and no scandals.

This is the case Tottenham would come out on top.

The dynamics of Tottenham's football just make much more sense than Arsenal. And for Manchester City, with Kevin De Bruyne's injury, they have some flaws.

I know we are talking about an "ideal" world, but it is already confirmed Kevin De Bruyne is injured. The ideal world is the world in its current state, continued for a prolonged state.

We can assume Kevin De Bruyne comes back by December.

But he has still missed around ~40% of the season. I cannot stress how much of a loss this is for Manchester City. And this is why I do favour Tottenham over them.

Let's talk about these dynamics.

Manchester City's focal point in the previous season consisted of Erling Haaland who was supplied by the greatest creator of all time: Kevin De Bruyne.

Kevin De Bruyne's creation tactics largely compromises of perfectly weighted through balls, something which is able to complement Haaland's ability to runs perfectly.

De Bruyne's sheer range allowed him to play in deeper areas, and playmake from anywhere. I am not saying this is the case, but he has the ability to create from absolutely anywhere on the pitch. This is particularly noticeable on counter attacks.

The likes of Bernardo Silva and Jack Grealish were responsible for retaining the ball, and progressing it to dangerous areas of the pitch for their primary creator and goal threats.

With the absence of Kevin De Bruyne, the likes of Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva, or even Julian Alvarez have the responsbility to create.

But they cannot replicate what Kevin De Bruyne can do. With the exception of James Maddison and Bruno Fernandes, no one can.

Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva are what we call "pocket players". They are good creatively, good at working through tight spaces, but are not players that complement Erling Haaland's runs. They do not have the sheer power and precision of Kevin De Bruyne's through balls.

Instead, they will largely focus on using their superior dribbling abilities, and progressing the ball up the pitch.

But this is where the issue comes in. Manchester City will see more sustained pressure in the box as a result, but less control in other areas of the pitch. This is not necessarily a bad thing, but it also a much more high risk avenue of football. One small loss of possession could lead to a counter attacking goal due to the openess of the back. Naturally, you will see the midfield and defense also advance to offer more passing lanes, creating this openess.

Phil Foden and Alvarez both do indeed have good long balls and ability to switch play from deep, but this does not possess the immediate goal threat Kevin De Bruyne does. It leads to what I was saying earlier, just sustained pressure in the box.

Kevin De Bruyne is able to stretch defenses. Not in the typical way, but his passing arsenal is able to completely able to instil a sense of fear and create the same effect. This is why wingers such as Jack Grealish and Bernardo silva worked.

With his absence, I cannot see such a wing pair working as efficiently until his return. And Guardiola knows this, and hence signed Jeremy Doku.

The idea is genius, sign a player that is able to stretch defenses, and compensate for the loss of Kevin De Bruyne.

And whilst yes, this gives the option for Bernardo Silva, Julian Alvarez and Phil Foden to potentially playmake from deep, due to more open channels, which would circumvent the previous issue, the question becomes: Is the vision and ability of Foden and Bernardo Silva enough to negate the lack of ball retention by Doku?

Of course, Manchester City have the best defensive depth I have ever seen in my life, but such scenarios which involve counter attacks cannot even be stopped by a defensive line consiting of 4 Maldinis.

And for this reason, I can see Manchester City leaking goals. Not due to a lack of defensive quality, but rather as a result of the way they will be forced to setup in De Bruyne's absence.

Now, talking about Tottenham.

Postecoglou's signing of Brennan Johnson makes them clear favourites in my eyes, in this perfect world scenario.

Postecoglou although uses a very similar formation to Guardiola, has vastly different ideologies with his wingers.

He prefers them to stay high and wide, and stretch opposition defenses.

And this is exactly the profile Tottenham lacked, and which Brennan Johnson achieves.

Simply put, this gets the best out of James Maddison, the player Ange is clearly trying to build his squad around.

Do you remember the the early Guardiola era of Manchester City that consisted of wingers such as Leroy Sane and Raheem Sterling that liked to run at defenses. Do you remember how many goals they scored?

That is exactly what we will see this season from Tottenham.

I have spoke on it before, but the combination of James Maddison and Heung Min Son follows a very similar dynamic to that of Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne.

This combination was the focal point of Manchester City's attack last year. Now imagine adding wingers that will stretch defenses to that. Can you imagine how many goals they would have scored?

That is what we have here. A more attacking version of the treble winning Manchester City squad.

I am not saying it is better, as Guardiola clearly preferred defensive stability, but for Postecoglou, it seems he prefers to score more goals.

And like I mentioned before - Kevin De Bruyne's absence for Manchester City will result in more box pressure, which is not a bad thing, but more risky. This is not the case for Tottenham, having an elite creator like James Maddison allows attacks to stem from every area of the pitch, however deep, meaning the likes of Bissouma and Sarr do not leave the back half of the pitch as open.

Simply put, the James Maddison-Heung Min Son duo is similar to what Erling Haaland-Kevin De Bruyne achieved last year. That, in combination with a winger that is able to stretch defenses, James Maddison and Heung Min son will have absolutely their best seasons ever, and a season good enough to carry Tottenham to their first Premier League title.

As for Arsenal, in a "perfect world" scenario, I have them finishing 2nd, above Manchester City. Smply put, Arsenal have the best starting XI in the league. Tottenham the most individual brilliance and team dynamics, but Arsenal the best starting XI.

It would be a completely different story if Kevin De Bruyne was not injured.

You may think, what areas are Arsenal better than Manchester City?

Attack and midfield.

Arsenal's attack is the most fluid in the league. There is not a single focal point, and that is a nightmare for defenses, as well as tactically instructing against.

One thing I can very rarely say about an attack is that all players are equally good. Manchester City, Erling Haaland is clearly a cut above the rest, Tottenham, Heung Min Son is clearly a cut above the rest, Liverpool, Mohammed Salah is clearly a cut above the rest, you get the point.

But Arsenal, this is not the case. Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka, and Gabriel Martinelli are equally as good. Saying any one of these players is the best in their attack would be a valid, non delusional decision.

And in game, their fluidity with Jesus being able to drop deep, Martinelli being able to overlap and hit a cross, whilst also being able to drift in centrally with Jesus shifting slightly wider, is a tactical nightmare to deal with.

Manchester City's attack is what we call "efficiency". It is good at what is does, but very one dimensional. Haaland is superb, but one dimensional, Grealish and Bernardo Silva the same.

As for midfield, it is very tricky, but I think Arsenal do very slightly edge it.

Rodri, a fanastic player, but is not as good as Declan Rice. Other than the exceptions of James Maddison and Bruno Fernandes, currently, there is no midfielder in the world better than Declan Rice. He is a signing that made me put Arsenal as title favourites. He is Arsenal's game changer.

As for Odegaard, I do not hate him, contrary to popular belief. He just is not as good as some of the names you compare him to. With that being said, he is better than Kovacic. He offers a combination of pausa and creativity, and one thing Kovacic lacks is composure with his final ball. Odegaard does not.

Havertz is a misunderstood player. He is not a player Arteta wants to get goals or assists, but rather a player that is expected to create space, link attack and midfield, and control the tempo. That being said, he is not as good as Foden, Alvarez, or Bernardo Silva, or whoever is playing that role.

But let me talk about a dark horse I have not discussed as explicitly as these 3 teams. In a perfect world, where Klopp is mentally stable, Liverpool will be 2nd favourites.

Only Liverpool's individual brilliance is able to match Tottenham's. The likes of Mohammed Salah, Trent Alexander Arnold, Ibrahima Konate, Alisson, Virgil Van Dijk, Andrew Robertson, wow.

And in the era of the inverted fullback, Liverpool's classic system of attacking high and wide fullbacks would dominate and exploit the lack of width against such a formation. Especially in conjunction with their triple 8 midfield, and suffocating press. Trent and Robertson will have the seasons of their career.

But unfortunately, Jurgen Klopp nowadays is too unstable tactically for me to take seriously. One game he will invert his fullback, the next he'll invert his fullback and also give him license to roam, and the next game he will go back to playing his classic system. He does not know what he is doing. The pressure of last season has gotten to him. He did not realise the reason he was failing was due to a midfield that needed replenishing.

But in an ideal world, Jurgen Klopp has a system that is working. And once this is the case, Liverpool can be serious contenders. But until this is the case, they won't.

And all of these are ideal scenarios, but when we start considering these different factors, it becomes totally different.

And I will not get too much into detail, but the obvious differences which affect such a title race are simply injury crises and mentality issues.

Tottenham will not have a non-injury ridden season. And simply put, a prolonged injury to James Maddison, and they will struggle. No one in that Tottenham team can replicate what James Maddison can do. Most attacks will stem from him in some form.

A James Maddison injury would result in Tottenham playing a similar way to Manchester City with Kevin De Bruyne's injury, since it is assumed Dejan Kulusevski will take a more central role.

And unlike Manchester City, Tottenham do not have as much discipline to play with this sustained pressure, simply due to the nature of their wingers, whilst also not possessing as much defensive quality to minimise the chance of counter attacks being threatening (Even though it is the 2nd best in the league).

Prolonged Van De Ven and Romero injuries will also be detrminetal, particularly Van De Ven due to no one being able to replicate his recovery runs in that Tottenham squad.

However, it seems like Tottenham are very heavy on the attack tactically, so perhaps, just perhaps, even if Tottenham will concede 5 a game, Postecoglou's philosophy combined with the brilliance of Heung Min Son and James Maddison will allow them to score 6.

And injuries are a thing that are unavoidable. And the fact that a single injury to roughly 30% of the squad would provide detrminetal, it is only logical I put Tottenham as the 3rd on my "real world predictions".

Manchester City and Arsenal simply have superior depth.

And yes, I think Arsenal have better depth than Manchester CIty, and that is why I have them coming out on top.

A common misconception is Manchester City have depth. This is not the case. The reality is Manchester City, due to the brilliance of Guardiola, have players that are able to adapt and play in multiple positions to a good enough standard. But these "standards", whilst high, do not match up to the quality Arsenal have.

If Saka gets injured, Gabriel Jesus can play as a high quality right winger, with Nketiah, Havertz, or even Martinelli moving centrally. If Martinelli gets injured, we will see Trossard. If Rice gets injured, we will see Jorginho (Or Partey when he is fit). If Odegaard is injured, we will see Viera..

And so on.

These replacements are more natural than that of Manchester CIty.

As for the mentality side of things, Arsenal have learned from their mistakes. They were not unable to handle the pressure in the business end last year, but what doesn't kill you makes you stronger.

Now, why do I think this will be a title race for the ages?

Imagine you were a physicist entering his final year of his masters degree.

You see Albert Einstein, Isaac Newton, and Richard Feynman enter a contest to derive a formula for the meaning of life.

The 3 best and most influential physicists of all time, competing for something that is so meaningful for people who enjoy such a thing.

That is the case here. Replace physicist with football manager.

In a decade, you will look back at these managers individually and see the impact they had on the game. And it will begin with this season and this title race.