Thread by @JumpOvertheAge

Looking at the maths on the Unity changes really puts into stark contrast what the effect will be on platform deals—which in my experience are what keep indie studios running/sustainable. Some notes for non devs 🧵:

The upside of these deals is the lump sum payout you receive + the high user numbers you gain. The gamble you make is that those high user numbers will drive sales on other platforms, because the lump sum is not even close to the revenue you’d have for the same number of sales.

But if I (or the platform holder, because they’ll almost certainly pass the cost to me) lose money on the deal the more people play my game, as unity proposes, it completely breaks the paradigm. Now more players = less money. But I want more players!

It’s also impossible to accurately predict how much money per player I might get with a platform deal, because that’s not how these deals are made. Looking at what’s on offer I would expect way less than $1 dollar per player, definitely less than 50c per player.

Unity wants 15c per player for pro users, meaning its not unreasonable for me to expect a platform deal where due to user numbers Unity takes 30-50% of revenue. It could be worse. And this is gross revenue we are taking about, before publisher share and royalties.

And the crazy thing is because it’s install-based, I can’t know what % Unity will take when I sign the deal. And the more popular my game ends up being, the more I will lose to them through the deal. Obviously that’s way worse than a royalty % where I would pay based on earnings

But all this only affects me if I have 1mil revenue and 1mil install base, that’d make me a multimillionaire right? No. Because if I launch on game pass it is very likely I pass those thresholds. Unity want to count reinstalls, press keys, test keys, everything. 1mil is probable

and with 1mil revenue we are talking gross revenue so of that my studio receives only a % after publisher cut and royalties. Then we need to recoup the cost of the game, and games cost a lot of money to make. 1 mil revenue gross might just mean break even in release year.

I rely on platform deals to continue to make experimental and unusual games. I can take gambles on projects because of self-funding and having access to revenue. If I can’t make platform deals I have to play it safer, it changes what I do.

I understand I am in the lucky position of being successful, but I don’t think people realise how much of a risk multi-year game projects are in the current moment. Platform deals are offsetting that risk for a huge number of small studios.

What unity are proposing is going to actively erode the vibrancy, range and sustainability of indie games. Less interesting games, less risk, less sustainable studios. If anyone cares about this ecosystem you should be dead set against this absurd cash-grab.