Thread by @QuixoticQuant

We knew that @AEMO_Energy and @CSIRO avoided doing proper apples-to-apples cost comparisons. They used 'sunk costs' to avoid renewables costs and do dodgy apples-to-oranges instead.

But @Bowenchris has taken things to a new low before #QandA. 1/

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I believe that this is the press release produced by Bowen's department, quoted by @australian, @GuardianAus and others.

It's frankly incredible that they are reporting this in the way they have...

This is just such an embarrassingly non-serious analysis. And nothing new.. 2/

@australian @GuardianAus For a start, the headline number of $387 billion is just a capital cost! If only capital costs were the only costs in an electricity system, then $387bn is probably an absolute bargain to secure reliable energy for 70 or 80 years! 3/

@australian @GuardianAus Of course, GenCost assumes that a nuclear reactor only has an economic life of 30 years... When in practice they'll likely to do better than the reactors built in the 70s, which are currently being licensed in the US up to 80 years. 4/

@australian @GuardianAus So on the asset life alone, we could improve the calc by ~tripling the cost of solar/wind construction.

But there's more.

Capacity factor of renewables is only ~35% on average. So triple one more time...

9x the CAPITAL cost of renewables is better ball-park comparison. 5/

@australian @GuardianAus And curiously, in the data for the ISP, if you add all the new 'Generator Capital' to be spent up 2023-2050, under 'Step Change' scenario I get $221bn in June 2021 dollars.

In the ballpark.

And that's annualised costs... the up-front capital spend would be higher. 6/

@australian @GuardianAus And if you add up the other items in the ISP's 'Total System Costs' by year (note, that isn't actually the total system at all, just the costs they count), you get to $383bn!
$387bn isn't looking that bad.

Expecially when you consider what's NOT included in that $383bn... 7/

@australian @GuardianAus Remember this? Basically none of the storage is included.

Snowy 2.0 - excluded.
45GW of distributed storage - excluded.
All the distribution network upgrades? - excluded.

8/
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And... another bombshell on Transmission, credit to @EnergyWrapAU for this...

🥁🥁🥁

The last ISP probably underestimated the transmission costs... a lot. According to Simon Bartlett. (read his bio).

We're talking, maybe, factor of 3.

🧨🧨🧨💣💣 9/

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@EnergyWrapAU Which is all to say that a serious whole-of-system analysis is required to make a cost comparison.

ISP isn't that.
GenCost isn't that.
None of my musings on here are that.

But Chris Bowen's press release... It's not just not right, it's not even wrong! Just nonsense! 10/

@EnergyWrapAU Perhaps the clincher for me is the reference to the Rewiring the Nation fund, of $20bn.

This is nothing like the cost of transmission. Let alone the cost of the whole system.

This is simply farcical. We've now got the apples-to-orangutans type comparisons. From a minister. 11/

@EnergyWrapAU The most worrying thing is the way this gets reported in the media. Somehow, these numbers are still a legit headline.

The only legit headline is that we now can't trust Chris Bowen with numbers.

Not to pick the right ones to compare, not to get the numbers right. 12/12

PS, I've registered for the studio audience tonight.

If anyone else going would like to meet up nearby for a bite to eat or a quick beverage in Ultimo beforehand, around 7, reply here and I'll follow, we can figure something out.

Exciting times!