Thread by @dillonrpayton

The long anticipated arrival of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) in Ukraine seems inevitable as U.S. officials discuss sending the system. As a former U.S. Army Fire Support NCO, I will explain what this system can do for Ukraine. 1/28

Sources are all publicly available and include ATP 3-09.32 (JFIRE) October 2019 edition as well as conversations with weapon experts and my own personal knowledge from years in the fire support community. 2/28

The MGM-140 ATACMS is a U.S.-made tactical ballistic missile system, with a range spanning 165km to 300km, depending on the variant. Production rates since 2020 have been 38 ATACMS monthly. For more specifics, check out @ColbyBadhwar thread. 3/28

https://twitter.com/colbybadhwar/status/1703757651623162271

@ColbyBadhwar Exploring ATACMS variants: Block 1 carries 950 anti-pers./armor bomblets (APAM) with a 165km range. Block 1A has 300 APAM and extends range to 300km. QRU features a 215lbs warhead with PD fusing at 270km, the M57 (unitary) uses a 500lbs warhead and adjustable fusing at 300km 4/28

@ColbyBadhwar The M270 MLRS can carry and fire two ATACMS at a time while the M142 HIMARS can carry and fire one ATACMS at a time. Both systems are in Ukraine’s inventory. Interestingly, ATACMS pods cleverly mimic six tubes to mislead enemy intelligence. 5/28

@ColbyBadhwar Similar to DPICM, the ATACMS variants use bomblets to disperse their submunitions over a wide area, maximizing effects against personnel and armor. To understand their effects, I must explain some key doctrinal terms. 6/28

@ColbyBadhwar 0.1% Probability of Incapacitation (POI) describes the minimum range at which you can employ munitions and theoretically begin to risk fratricide to friendly troops or non-combatants. 7/28

@ColbyBadhwar Risk-estimated distances (REDs) are the distances describing POI’s based on employed munition, range of firing unit to target, and degree of protection for said individual/group. 8/28

@ColbyBadhwar The chart below expresses the REDs for precision-guided munitions. The table we’re interested in is the bottom HIMARS/M270A1 column and the ATACMS rows. 9/28

@ColbyBadhwar ATACMS bomblet submunitions notably have lower REDs compared to DPICM, with the highest at 285m in Block 1A. This concern diminishes significantly with unitary warheads. 10/28

@ColbyBadhwar In summary, ATACMS is likely to cause more localized effects compared to DPICM. Ukraine has demonstrated proficiency with cluster munitions, including HIMARS-launched tungsten ball submunitions for quite some time. 11/28

@ColbyBadhwar What can ATACMS offer Ukraine? A significant advantage. Considering Crimea's strategic importance, utilizing ATACMS on military targets can disrupt the relative safety Russia enjoys there, making it a formidable deterrent. (Image: @ameliaairheart) 12/28

@ColbyBadhwar @AmeliaAirheart Ukraine has long possessed the capability for deep strikes in Crimea and has executed them. The introduction of ATACMS is poised to elevate the intensity and impact of these operations significantly. 13/28

https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1703457537314447795

@ColbyBadhwar @AmeliaAirheart Importantly, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated Ukraine would employ long-range missiles, such as ATACMS, only within its own borders. The contrary has been an escalation concern for U.S. administration officials. 14/28

@ColbyBadhwar @AmeliaAirheart I want to remind my audience that weaponry, outside of weapons of mass destruction, are hardly ever “Wunderwaffe” and will likely have proportional effects that are in sync with Ukraine’s overall military goals and capability. 15/28

@ColbyBadhwar @AmeliaAirheart What can be inferred is that Russian targets will be held “in-extremis” as there will be no area in Ukraine that is out of range of ATACMS. Due to its high velocity, Ukraine can hit time-sensitive targets. This has outsized effects on Russia’s centralized command. 16/28

@ColbyBadhwar @AmeliaAirheart Russia will need to adapt its dispositions and warfighting strategies. Logistics, already stretched by preventive measures and support for multiple armies in a defense in depth in the south, will also become vulnerable to targeting. 17/28

@ColbyBadhwar @AmeliaAirheart Command & control centers, ammo depots, logistic hubs (including the vital Black Sea Fleet), and the abundant strategic air defense in Crimea will face attrition and potential neutralization through sustained attacks. 18/28

@ColbyBadhwar @AmeliaAirheart One of ATACMS-for-Ukraine’s biggest proponents, LTG (R.) Ben Hodges, has laid out more specifically what targets Ukraine can, and should, target in Crimea to make Russian positions there, “untenable”. 19/28

newsweek.com/russia-ukraine…

@ColbyBadhwar @AmeliaAirheart Targets consist of the Kerch Bridge, a crucial supply route to the peninsula, Sevastopol harbors to pressure the Black Sea Fleet's retreat to Novorossiysk, and the Saky and Dzhankoy airbases. Their associated logistics hubs are essential for leveling. 20/28

https://twitter.com/grangere04117/status/1701815310918262861

@ColbyBadhwar @AmeliaAirheart However, it is my opinion after talking with weapon experts, that ATACMS is not a likely target for the Kerch Bridge as Ukraine possesses better weapons for that target. 21/28

@ColbyBadhwar @AmeliaAirheart A more likely and interesting target would be Russian EW systems in Crimea. Anything that uses a dish is vulnerable to light damage, effecting it’s use, making long-range APAMS like ATACMS ideal. (Image: TASS) 22/28

@ColbyBadhwar @AmeliaAirheart Given time and ample ammunition, these events could have noticeable repercussions across Ukraine's fronts. Russia's reliance on Crimea's force posture to sustain its broader war effort makes these targets crucial for any future offensive in the region. 23/28

@ColbyBadhwar @AmeliaAirheart As mentioned before, ATACMS isn't a miracle weapon. Ukraine faces challenges with existing HIMARS munitions like ammo shortages and improved Russian defenses, highlighting the need for careful strategy. (Image: @CovertShores) 24/28

@ColbyBadhwar @AmeliaAirheart @CovertShores Reports suggest that Russian air defenses have received software updates, enhancing their ability to counter precision guided missiles (PGMs). Russia has held this capability since the Cold War, notably with the introduction of the S-300 & Tor complexes. 25/28

@ColbyBadhwar @AmeliaAirheart @CovertShores Weaponry experts suggest Russia would likely need it’s costly air defense missiles to intercept ATACMS given their range. Ukrainian reports indicate that only a fraction of launched PGMs have been successfully intercepted. 26/28

https://twitter.com/frhoffmann1/status/1697252466486837503

@ColbyBadhwar @AmeliaAirheart @CovertShores Expect ATACMS to be used akin to the UK-donated Storm Shadow, known for neutralizing vital Russian targets. ATACMS offers increased survivability as it doesn't rely on airborne aircraft for deployment. (Image: WSJ) 27/28

@ColbyBadhwar @AmeliaAirheart @CovertShores The arrival of ATACMS on the Ukrainian battlefield will be long overdue and another weapon that Ukraine needs if it ever hopes to achieve its goal of liberating Crimea. King of Battle! 🇺🇦 28/28