Thread by @ShamanGeo

🇦🇲Armenia vs 🇦🇿Azerbaijan: MEGA THREAD 🧵

if you *really* understand what's happening, you are top one-percentile in geopolitics

let's go down the 🐇🕳️
⤵️

🟦ethnic Azeris in blue
🟨ethnic Armenians in yellow

That island of ethnic Armenians in Azerbaijan, surrounded by ethnic Azeris, roughly corresponds to Nagorno-Karabakh

What's fascinating is that it's almost a foil to the Azeri enclave bordering Armenia's southwest

It's almost like a puzzle piece - if only Armenia + Azerbaijan could "trade" one for the other, it would solve world peace

But alas, the Azeri island enclave is *PART* of Azerbaijan, while the Armenian enclave one is NOT part of Armenia

Azerbaijan's land-islanded enclave, "Nakhchivan" actually TOUCHES, *shares a border* (ever so tiny) with Turkiye

Therefore, if Azerbaijan can "close the gap" between mainland and non-contiguous enclave, Turkiye can directly connect into accessing *Caspian Sea* to the East; and Azerbaijan can directly connect into all of Turkiye, which means the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and into Europe

For Armenia, they would love to capture the ethnic-Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan, Karabakh; AND to close *THEIR* gap, which would mean Armenia taking Azeribajian land

Thus, both sides are by fate of circumstance designed to fight a battle over closing their respective gaps over each other

Turks and Azeris are part of the broader Turkic ethno-linguistic family, which includes 4 of the 5 Central Asian Republics

Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan are ethnically Turkic

Tajikstan is the sole non-Turkic nation in this region of Central Asia

Tajiks are ethnically related to Persians

Tajiks are Indo-European

Let's place the major Indo-European groups of the Azeri-Armenian Spheres into context:

Armenians are their own ethno-linguistic "Isolate", in that they are the last survivor of a major *Branch* of Indo-Europeans, at the "top line level"

Pan-Persians, like Tajiks and Iranians, are closely related to the Kurds; and together, they roll up to a Branch shared with many Indian groups

Turkiye + Azerbaijan, as Turkic nations, are part of the Organization of Turkic States

Think of it as the next EU, but for Turkic nations

Now let's look through the religious filter:
✝️🇦🇲Most Armenians are Armenian Orthodox Christian

☪️🇦🇿Most Azeris are *SHIA* (not Sunni) Muslim

Most Muslims are either of two denominations: Sunni (87–90%, roughly 1.7 billion people) or Shia (10–13%, roughly 180–230 million people)

Here is the distribution of Shia Muslims

Even where they Shia are not a majority, they form powerful minorities in Sunni-majority nations

Azerbaijan has the distinction, among Turkic Muslim nations, of having the highest % who follow Shia, rather than Sunni denominations

Hence, one would *expect* there to be solidarity between fellow Shia-majority nations Iran + Azerbaijan

But this is not the case *at all*

In fact, it's actually Christian nation of Armenia that has historically cultivated much stronger ties with Iran

Azerbaijan and Iran are often in conflict, despite sharing Shia majority populations

Here, Azerbaijan leans more on the *ethnic* faction of Turkic peoples, such as de-facto leader of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) Turkiye; rather than leaning to a *religious* confederation with Iran

And as we all know, Iran has threatened to obliterate the nation of Israel

Which is how the now world famous Israeli loitering munition drones called "IAI Harop" appeared in the Second Nagarno-Karabakh War of 2020, on the side of *Azerbaijan*, greatly contributing to the defeat of *Armenia*

Azerbaijan, with the help of Israel's formidable Defense Industry and perhaps other types of support, won a *HUGE* victory

It was an *EPIC* victory for Azerbaijan, over Armenia

Azerbaijan has energy resources such as natural gas

Given long-standing Armenia-Azerbaijan conflicts, Azerbaijan transports natural gas over 3 primary routes:
1) Russia to the Black Sea
2) Georgia to the Black Sea
3) Turkey *by way of* Georgia

But Azerbaijan has no pipeline running *over* Armenia at all

Azerbaijan is actually quite well diversified, with those 3 routes

That said, another route could *directly* connect Azerbaijan to Turkiye

That would be a 4th route made possible by the closing of the land gap over Armenia

Russians are Slavic Indo-European

Georgians are actually an ethno-linguistic isolate

There is no surviving relative of Georgian language anywhere in the world

The OTS is VERY resource rich

The Caspian Sea in general is a resource rich area

Azerbaijan could develop pipelines and links to the rest of the Turkic sphere, across the Caspian Sea; and then pass it on to fellow Turkic nation Turkey, and then out to the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and into Europe

The Organization of Turkic States is astonishingly *BLESSED* with geopolitically powerful Natural Resources across *BOTH* the Fossil Fuels Industrial Era, and the fast emergent New Energy Era

Fossil Fuel Energy *Suppliers* such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Azerbaijan, Russia wield enormous power over Energy Importing *Consumers*

The great New Energy conversion under foot is set to flip the script, re-allocating that geopolitical power from legacy Fossil Fuels Supplying-Nations, to those with minerals such as Rare Earths and Uranium

Nuclear Energy Plant construction will be booming for many years

And Kazakhstan is the largest producer of Uranium ever

We're talking production here, not total reserves

That said, this is just one aspect of a bigger picture:

Over time, OTS > Gulf Arab GCC, on the Natural Resources-based Geopolitical Power angle

This is Stalin's mugshot in Bailov Prison, Baku, Azerbaijan

Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan on the Caspian Sea and once part of the Soviet Union, was where Stalin cut his teeth as a revolutionary

In January 1905, Imperial Russian troops massacred protesters in St Petersburg, kicking off "The Revolution of 1905" across the Russian Empire

Stalin was in Baku, Azerbaijan in February when ethnic violence broke out between... you guessed it... Armenians and Azeris; at least 2,000 were killed

Historians like to say that Stalin learned in Baku the value of agitprop, instigating, or lining up behind as the face of, unrest that turns bloody... into an energized political *movement*

So how did Russia end up occupying Azerbaijan, including Baku?

Russia absorbed Azerbaijan after beating *Iran* in the Russo-Persian War of 1804-1813

🟥below RED-line border = what was part of Iran before the war vs Russia

◼️below BLACK BOLD-line border = what was part of Iran *after* the war vs Russia

So the Russians got Azerbaijan from Iran

But it was not Indo-European *PERSIANS* who ruled Iran at the time

Russia had gone to war against "Qajar Iran", a dynasty ruled by the ethnic *TURKIC* Qajars

And so, Turkic Azerbaijan went from being under Turkic-ruled Iran... to being under Slavic Imperial Russia

Map shows Iran under the Qajar dynasty in 19th century

If "Turkic Iran" sounds surprising, consider Mughal India

For 200 years, India was ruled by the ethnic-Turkic Mughals

The Taj Mahal was commissioned in 1631 by ethnic-Turkic Mughal emperor Shah Jahan to house the tomb of his beloved wife, Mumtaz Mahal

Anyway, so the Russians absorb Azerbaijan in 1813, and then hit jackpot after discovering Black Gold there in 1837

Commence: The Great Baku Oil Rush

But before we fast forward back to Baku in 1905, where Stalin is fomenting a Russian Revolution...

Let's discuss how Baku, Azerbaijan's "Great Baku Oil Rush" bonanza perpetuates the theme: overlapping nature of Armenians + Azeris

Russians built the first oil refinery in Azerbaijan, but the first to *drill* oil was ethnic Armenian

The so-called "founding father of Baku's oil industry" was *Armenian*, living on Azeri land, inside Imperial Russia:

Ethnic Armenian Ivan Mirzoev, founder of the great Mirzoev Brothers oil company

Anyway, so basically Armenians were killin' it in Baku during the Black Gold Rush

Mirzoev Brothers joined a ton of other oil businesses that got rolled up into a mega powerful Oil Corporation run by an even *MORE* prominent fellow ethnic Armenian who also operated out of Baku, Azerbaijan - when it was still under Imperial Russia...

Stalin was in Baku in 1905 when he found revolutionary potential in ethnic violence that broke out between Armenians and Azeris

It's no wonder Stalin won the post-revolution Soviet Union "Game of Thrones"

Stalin of course was ethnic *Georgian*, who grew up in Georgia, and then joined a *Russian Orthodox* Seminary

In Baku, he demonstrated keen "tribal reading skills", by dint of his own mix of nested-ethno-religious-national-identities

That perceptive skill would serve him well as he consolidated power over rivals, and then transformed Eurasia into a German revolutionary talking head's sociological lab rat

Karl Marx, the "German revolutionary talking head"

Anyway, you get the picture. It's *delicate* around here in the Caucuses

Today, Russia has its own version of NATO called the CSTO

NATO and CSTO are mutual defense treaty alliances

NATO is de-facto led by US; CSTO is de-facto led by Russia

*ARMENIA* is INSIDE "Russia's NATO" CSTO

*AZERBAIJAN* left Russian Security Bloc CSTO in 1999, 24 years ago...

Look at how 🇦🇲Armenia is orbiting 🇷🇺Russia's Union State with 🇧🇾Belarus

Whereas 🇦🇿Azerbaijan is half inside a post-Soviet, non-Russian GUAM; and half inside the post-Soviet, Russian-led CIS

They are both still at least partially "in the Russo-sphere", but 🇦🇿Azerbaijan is *independent* of 🇷🇺Russia, while 🇦🇲Armenia is looking like a New Member to Putin's 🇷🇺Russia

That said, do not mistake 🇦🇲Armenia as guaranteed to be a 🇷🇺Russian "Vassal State" (meme credit: Giga Chavda aka @AbhijitChavda)

Take Turkic 🇰🇿Kazakhstan, which is in the same close orbit as 🇦🇲Armenia

🇰🇿Kazakhstan and 🇦🇲Armenia are in 🇷🇺Russia-led groupings: EEU, CSTO, CIS

Yet, we all now know that 🇰🇿Kazakhstan most certainly is not a 🇷🇺Russian "Vassal State"

Many Analysts were recently proven wrong about 🇰🇿Kazakhstan

By inference, we could be wrong about 🇦🇲Armenia

I'm not saying 🇦🇲Armenia is this or that for sure

I'm saying 🇦🇲Armenia could truly be 🇷🇺pro-Russia, but that's not a given - either now, or in the future

The Caucuses is a "Geopolitical Bermuda Triangle"

Russia is Armenia's traditional arms supplier

But Ukraine War has shafted all Russian arms clients - including Armenia, India, Vietnam

Russia can't deliver orders for Client States abroad, since the "Special Operation" gets gets first dibs; and sanctions have gummed up Russian industrial supply chains

Remarkably, *INDIA* has stepped in and is now Armenia's leading arms supplier

Last year, India signed military agreements with Armenia, including sale of multi-barrel rocket launchers (MBRL), anti-tank missiles, rockets and ammunition worth $250 million

Thus, India and Israel, traditionally considered strong allies, find each other on opposite sides of the Armenia vs Azerbaijan Conflict

As if the Caucuses is in some sort of Twilight Zone, we find even more strange bedfellows and awkward rivals

Israel cultivates ties with Hellenic world, Greece and Greek Cyprus, as a counter-weight to Turkiye

Greece is among Armenia's strongest military allies; they even train together and deploy together on peacekeeping missions

But Israel is a huge arms supplier to Azerbaijan

Hence, traditional allies Israel and Greece find each other on opposite ends of the Armenia vs Azerbaijan conflict

So what's the beef between Iran and ethnic-Turkic Azerbaijan?

Do you see how much Azeri land is currently occupied by Iran (top left)?

🟦ethnic-Azeris in Blue shading on map of Iran below

Ethnic-Azeri majority territory inside Iran is equivalent in size to Azerbaijan itself

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend" explains how Israel + Azerbaijan developed such strong ties

*Iran* has been Armenia's largest trading partner since 1991

Israel has been a major arms supplier to Azerbaijan

Why is India interested in supporting Armenia, which is connected to Iran and Russia?

1. Armenia is in "Russian NATO", the CSTO

2. India and Russia are strong allies, ever since the Soviet Union stunned US & UK Naval Forces and helped India win The 1971 War

3. India's regional rival is Pakistan, and both are locked in a Nuclear Weapons-strapped staring contest

4. Pakistan is composed of 4 major ethnic groups, one of which are the ethnic-Baluchis

5. Baluchis are spread primarily across Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan

6. Pakistan and Iran have fought each other over how the other side is allegedly weaponizing Baluchistan separatist terrorism against them

7. Thus, India + Iran as Team Pair can "squeeze" Pakistan from East + West

@AbhijitChavda Turkic Ethno-Linguistic Family is very large

One sub-branch is Orghuz languages, which includes Turkiye's Turkish *and* Azerbaijan's Azeri

Here is the distribution of *Orghuz* sub-branch of Turkic family

Note that *Crimean Tatar* (whose Urheimat in the Black Sea is currently contested by Russia vs Ukraine in the #UkraineWar) is sometimes included in Orghuz, and sometimes not

Regardless, Crimean Tatar is generally considered mutually intelligible with Orghuz languages such as Turkic + Azerbaijani

.@ZelenskyyUa recently fired seven ministers in a Ukraine Defense Ministry purge

Ukraine's new Minister of Defense, Rustem Umerov, is an ethnic-Turkic Crimean Tatar Ukrainian and of Muslim faith

Thus, he shares close ethnic Turkic-Orghuz and religious ties with Turkiye + Azerbaijan

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa Interestingly, Putin's Defense Minister is *also* ethnic-Turkic

That means ethnic-Turkic Defense Ministers in Russia + Ukraine are fighting each other in the #UkraineWar

🟩Tuvan in green
🟦Orghuz in blue (includes Turkish + Azerbaijani + Crimean Tator)

Shoigu is ethnic-Turkic *Tuvan*, which is quite distantly related to Orghuz branch of Turkic family

Shoigu is Russian Orthodox (baptized at age 5), though many ethnic-Tuvans are *Buddhist* and/or practitioners of *shamanism*

Putin can no longer play the "Turkic Race Card" in the Black Sea struggle vs Ukraine over Turkiye's favor

Turkiye is of course the Black Sea Superpower, controlling the gateway connecting Black Sea to Aegean Sea to Mediterranean Sea

Putin's Defense Minister is only *half* ethnic-Turkic Tuvan, while Zelensky's new Defense Minister is *fully* ethnic-Turkic Crimean Tatar

To boot, Ukraine's Defense Minister now shares Muslim faith with Istanbul, while Shoigu is Russian Orthodox Christian

Basically, Zelensky check-mated Putin's "Race Card"

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa Turkiye + Azerbaijan have long described their alliance as "One Nation-Two States"

Turkiye is a NATO member, but none of the Caucuses nations are in NATO

Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia are NOT in NATO

Therefore, Turkiye-Azerbaijan "One Nation-Two States" informal alliance accretes huge indirect protective benefits to Azerbaijan over Armenia

Azerbaijan exited "Russian NATO" group CSTO 24 years ago, and has since aligned to NATO by way of Turkiye

Meanwhile, Armenia relied on Russia for Defense via CSTO mutual defense treaty alliance + Iran as largest trade partner since the 1990's

Russia + Iran both challenge NATO

Turkiye + Israel have been Azerbaijan's strongest security partners

Israel of course supplied Azerbaijan the world-famous IAI Harop loitering munition drones in the 2020 "Second Nagorno-Karabakh War"

And Turkiye is an emergent Defense Industrial powerhouse, ironically *also* in the drone space

But Turkiye's Great Leap goes much further than just Bayraktar UAVs

Turkiye's Defense Industrial Base is getting *very* high-tech, like the world's first *Drone Aircraft Carrier*

From a pure technology-driven qualitative advantage perspective, Azerbaijan > Armenia on the conventional battlefield

Why?

Israel + Turkiye tech > Russian + Iranian tech

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa Quite unbelievably, this is where we REALLY need to start talking how *China* is entering the Armenia vs Azerbaijan chat

Here is the vast distribution of Turkic peoples across Eurasia

🟥ethnic-Turkic Yakut, in red, dwell in *Far East Arctic Siberian Russia*

🟫ethnic-Turkic Uyghurs, in brown, dwell in Xinjiang, China (aka "East Turkestan" by Uyghur Separatists)

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa Here are China's administrative divisions

Note ethnic-Turkic Uyghur Xinjiang Autonomous Region in the Northwest

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa Ethnic-Turkic Uyghur Xinjiang is HUGE! In fact, it's the largest administrative unit in China, bigger than #2 Tibet

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa Just take a moment to appreciate just how many *Biomes* Turkic peoples inhabit, such as this ethnic-Turkic Yakut woman in the Russian Arctic Far East Siberia

Turks span from the Arctic Circle to the Turkish Riviera on the "Turquoise Coast" of the Mediterranean Sea

"Khan Tengri" is a mountain at the center of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Kazakhstan "tri-point" border

Kyrgyz + Kazakh are ethnic-Turkic

Tengri is a God of Heaven, the chief deity of the early Turkic + Mongolic peoples, and of the spiritual tradition of Tengrism

First Map Image = China, showing China's portion of Khan Tengri is within ethnic-Turkic Uyghur Xinjiang

Second Map Image = Kazakhstan, showing where Khan Tengri is split into 3-way border with China + fellow ethnic-Turkic Kyrgyzstan

How is Khan Tengri a shared ancestral heritage of both Turkic + Mongolic peoples?

Well, 1) Turkic + 2) Mongolic share a common ancestor, and together are part of the "Transeurasian" or "Altaic" Language Family, along with 3) Tungustic + 4) Koreanic + 5) Japonic

All 5 share a common ancestor whose Urheimat is either in what is now Northern China; or in the Amur region of what is now the Russian Far East

The first "split" was Mongolo-Turkic, which migrated West; and Japano-Koreanic, which remained nearby or migrated slightly East

Mongolics + Turkics then branched off into their own sub-branches

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa Here is the Turkic sub-branch (bottom) in context of broader Altaic-Transeurasian ethno-linguistic family; and approximate time of divergence

You know Japonic, Koreanic, Mongolic, Turkic

But who are the "Tungustic"?

🟫Tungustic includes "Evenki" or so-called "Reindeer People", in Brown shading

Evenki are in the Russian Far East, along border with Manchuria in China

Evenki actually reach as far down as close to the Russian border with North Korea (see bottom right)

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa Here are some Tungustic Evenki people

But the most well-known of the Tungustic branch of Altaic peoples are the Manchu (see "Manchuria" in top right)

The "last dynasty of China", the Qing Dynasty, was actually ethnic-Manchu of Altaic ethnoc-linguistic family, and not ethnic-Han Chinese, which is part of the orthogonal Sino-Tibetan ethno-linguistic family

From 1636 to 1912, the Manchu ruled over what is now largely the modern nation state of China

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa This is the distribution of Sino-Tibetan ethno-linguistic family

and this is the Sino-Tibetan ethno-linguistic family tree

Find modern Chinese languages such as Cantonese and Mandarin in the lower left section

Essentially, modern day China is the conquest of Beijing *Northern Han* Chinese over other Sinitic tribes

Under the CCP, even Cantonese in Southern China is slowly getting sidelined in favor of a common standard national language based on the dialect of the Northern Han ruling class

This is actually quite a common initiative that civilizations periodically go through: languages + ethnicities are always merging and splitting and evolving

*THOUSANDS OF YEARS* of history exist between ethnic Turkics and ethnic Chinese peoples, nations, civilizations

They have fought each other, allied with each other, absorbed each other, integrated each other, developed precursors to the Silk Road together, traded goods and ideas on the Silk Road together

For a VERY long time

And these interactions between Turkic + Chinese is quite prominently featured in their respective written + passed-on histories

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa At US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's Senate Confirmation Hearing, he was asked on record whether he believes that China is committing *Genocide* against the ethnic-Turkic Uyghurs in Xinjiang

Blinken said: "Yes"

China fears ethnic-Turkic movements that could lay the groundwork for secession, separatism, terrorism, and civil war

Uyghur violence / terrorism was met with asymmetrical response, which US officials believe includes mass genocide

The US is leading a battle against China, in what is called "Great Powers Competition"

Part of that has been bringing international attention to the plight of ethnic-Turkic Uyghurs, and supporting Uyghur rights movements

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa Suffice to say, China is unambiguously on Team Armenia, against ethnic-Turkic Azerbaijan

Why?

Xinjiang

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa It gets even crazier...

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa Saudi Arabia and Iran are rivals

Saudi Arabia is a Royal Kingdom; Iran is a Shia Theocracy

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa This summer, China brokered shocking diplomatic coup:

rapprochement between Saudi Arabia + Iran

China's Foreign Ministry claimed that West Asia is benefiting from "Chinese Wisdom"

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa President Trump orchestrated the Abraham Accords normalizing relations between Israel and ethnic-Arab countries Morocco, UAE, Bahrain, Sudan

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa Abraham Accords + long-standing pre-existing diplomatic relations with Jordan + Egypt = huge geopolitical victory for the U.S. vs Russia-China-backed Iran

Technically, it is an over-simplification to say that West Asia-Middle East is:

US-backed Israel + Arab sphere

vs

China-Russia-backed Iranian sphere (+Syria)

That said, China went from being *diplomatically* surface-level neutral, to playing *Offense* in the Middle East, by bridging the 2 Titans of the region: Iran + Saudi Arabia

SO WHAT'S IN IT FOR CHINA?

Why is China pushing Iran-Saudi rapprochement?

Answer: Islamic Sphere dominance

"Dominance", not in the sense that Xi Jinping aspires to annex Iran and Saudi Arabia

Rather, these 2 are THE leaders of the Islamic World:

🇮🇷Iran leads the Shia World
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia leads the Sunni World

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa And why is it so important for the CCP to wield superior Soft Power over the Islamic World?

Look: Ethnic-Turkic Uyghurs are NOT the only Muslim ethnic minorities in China

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa Uyghurs are the 2nd largest Muslim ethnic group in China

China has a total of ~20 million Muslims, the total population of the Netherlands

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa The Hui are China's largest Muslim ethnic minority

Hui Muslims descend from Indo-Iranian Persians, Mongols and other Central Asian immigrants

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa Now, WHAT does this all have to do with Azerbaijan and Armenia?!

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa Look: while Saudi Arabia leads Sunni Islam and Iran leads Shia Islam... the *OTTOMAN* Turks once dominated the region

Hence, besides ethnic-Arab + ethnic-Persian, Islam also has a very strong ethnic-Turkic pillar

NATO member Turkiye is the successor nation state to the Ottoman Empire that was dissolved after WW1

Ottoman Turks ruled over *Israel / Palestine*, SYRIA, the entire Caucuses, Muslim holy sites now cared for by Saudi Arabia, and parts of what is now modern Iran

In effect, *BOTH* the Islamic World AND the Chinese World have experienced long eras of Turkic super-regional geopolitical supremacy

China-Saudi-Iran Trilateral:
- gives China "Soft Power" over Islamic World's 2 primary drivers of theological ideology: Saudis lead Sunni Islam; Iranians lead Shia Islam

- China believes that Saudi Arabia + Iran are more likely to overlook ethnic-Turkic Uyghur issues, in favor of pressuring Israel on the Palestine Question

- Palestine is without question a top tier issue across the Arab World; Palestinians are, after all, Arab

- But ethnic-Turkic Uyghur Muslims are not as top of mind for the Arab World

- By contrast, Xinjiang / East Turkestan has a prominent place as a birthplace of pan-Turkic ancient history; Uyghur Muslims are *very* important to Turkic peoples

- China would like to elevate Iran-GCC-Arab League ties, as it could sideline Turkiye-Azerbaijan from the region

- China would like to become de-facto "Collective Bargaining Union Leader" for Saudi-Iranian side vs US-Israel on the Palestine Question

SAUDI ARABIA'S NUCLEAR PIVOT

The US and Israel are now furiously working to woo Saudi Arabia *back* towards joining the Abraham Accords, rather than PIVOTING into a China-Iran Axis

Saudi Crown Prince MBS holds all the cards now

MBS won't join the US-backed Abraham Accords with Israel, *unless* he gets some BIG asks from his Wish List, such as:

- Nuclear Energy Alliance with South Korea + US: China is *counter*-offering *cheaper* Nuclear Plants than South Korea *AND* support for Saudi domestic Uranium Enrichment

- Solving Palestine Question

- Mutual Defense Treaty Alliance modeled after the ones US has with South Korea + Japan (note: US has no Treaty Alliance in the Middle East; not with Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or UAE

Saudi Arabia is *actively* in the thick of negotiations with US-Israel on one side vs China-Iran on the other

Every day it seems outrageous news leaks from the ongoing talks:

MBS walks out of negotiations for good!

Israel says Saudi Uranium Enrichment is a Red Line "No!" (even if only for energy, not weapons-grade uranium)

MBS wants Biden and Congress to sign a *Treaty* with Saudi Arabia; none of that Iran JCPOA business (Obama unilaterally by Executive Order joined the Iran Nuclear Deal aka JCPOA; this meant Trump could unilaterally LEAVE the JCPOA, since Congress never blessed his predecessor Obama's deal)

MBS wants *permanence*, not flimsy Obama to Trump flip flopping!

MBS wants to join a UK-Italy-Japan 5th Generation Fighter Jet alliance!

It's harrowing

Which side will MBS join in the end? US-Israel or China-Iran?

One hopeful sign for Team Azerbaijan-Turkiye-Israel-NATO-US-South Korea:

Erdogan recently mended ties with Saudi Arabia

In May, MBS even deposited $5 billion into Turkey's Central Bank, to support a struggling Turkish Lira

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to fuel an investment boom in Turkiye

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa Israelis have been surprisingly nonchalant about "alleged" Saudi-Iran sudden love affair

First, Israelis are skeptical that Saudis and Iranians can *truly* ever be aligned

Also, the possibility that MBS might not be bluffing about Iran-China Axis is just too scary to imagine...

@AbhijitChavda @ZelenskyyUa Follow the "Next Episode" here:

https://twitter.com/ShamanGeo/status/1705061246733627673