Thread by @EdConwaySky

Net zero is the single biggest industrial & economic challenge modern society has set itself.
It’s ENORMOUS.
Every previous energy transition - from wood to coal, coal to oil, oil to gas/nuclear etc - involved moving UP a thermodynamic ladder. Our fuels got more energy dense!

In committing to net zero we are shifting DOWN to less dense sources of energy (eg solar/wind/battery storage).
Not only that, we’re aiming to do it in decades. Every previous energy transition took MUCH longer.
In other words we’re aiming to do something totally unprecedented

So @RishiSunak’s right in one sense: govts have not been clear enough about the scale of the challenge.
It is far-reaching, disruptive & expensive.
Pretending it’ll cost nothing in the short/medium term is nonsense.
BUT costs of doing nothing are, in the long run, far greater 👇

But net zero is also something else.
We’re setting ourselves an extraordinary challenge: a new Industrial Revolution.
The scale of this is momentous (& I think massively underappreciated). It’s something I describe in my book #materialworld.
MASSIVE deal
lnk.to/MaterialWorld

Think about it.
Developed economies like ours have been mired in secular stagnation, with low productivity, for years. It’s hard to think of a better way of kickstarting innovation than an Industrial Revolution.
In other words, net zero is also a massive opportunity…

In the coming decades we’ll need to come up with breakthrough technologies to redo EVERYTHING: not just green power - also making chemicals, refining metals, producing fertilisers.
Understand the #materialworld and you understand how big a challenge this is.
But also…

You understand we’re about to embark on one of the most exhilarating periods in innovation we’ve ever lived through.
And if we do it right we can and should aim not just for green energy but ABUNDANT energy. Which would trigger massive gains for humanity.
This is all v v exciting

In other words there’s a positive story here alongside the scary one. I’m surprised @rishisunak is so reluctant to embrace it. There’s reasons for hope alongside the despair.
Not deluded hope or cakeism.
Hope because we know humankind is capable of this kind of innovation.

When you tour the #materialworld you find that throughout history we’ve repeatedly been too gloomy about our ability to invent our way out of trouble.
Much of the Industrial Revolution involved Brits outperforming these expectations.
Chances are that’ll happen again with net zero

But here’s the thing: right now most of those innovations/patents/advances are happening in China. On batteries, on solar, hydrogen electrolysis - even on low carbon cement.
The Biden admin is trying to change that, steering investment back to the US via Inflation Reduction Act.

Right now it's not clear where the UK stands.
On the one hand it's a leader in wind power deployment. And govt just handed out massive subsidies to Tata/BMW for EV manufacture (and green steel).
On the other, you have statements like the PM's from last night, hinting at rollbacks

Sure. In practice, many in the industry (inc the EV sector) already thought the 2030 petrol car ban looked likely to fail. Gas boiler deadline even less feasible. So in one sense shifting these deadlines back is simply putting this in black and white.
But, but, mood music MATTERS

Right now businesses are deciding where to invest, where to site plants, where to put R&D centres - those places where this Industrial Revolution will be forged.
UK's lack of clarity & policy on energy, net zero etc is infuriating biz.
PM's statement last night made it worse...

Just read at the statements from Ford & Stellantis. They feel they're being messed around. And this is the public stuff. In private they're far FAR more scathing. Why invest in a country which doesn't seem to know what its strategy is?