Ahead of tomorrow's @NZQandA Finance Debate, I thought that I should dig around for how the NZ economy is doing. A few charts here on the current state of play against the countries that we usually compare ourselves to. All data here is from the OECD, Stats NZ, and IMF.
Last quarter, our GDP growth of 0.9% was very impressive in comparison to our peers - only Japan beating us in terms of GDP growth.
When we look at the situation since COVID began (Q4 2019) the situation for GDP growth is even more marked. New Zealand has outperformed its peers quite significantly on this measure.
GDP is important - but arguably employment is even more important. Again, New Zealand can hold its head up high here. Australia and the Netherlands have just nipped ahead of us here, but we are better placed than anywhere else
Now the one everyone is talking about - inflation. It's not as good a picture as painted by GDP and employment - but also not as bad as you might think. Consumer Prices have risen 18% since COVID-19. That's not great - but also not much different to everywhere else
The picture is slightly better when it comes to our Public Debt. On the IMF measure, our debt is very low by international standards, and would be the envy of most countries we normally compare ourselves to
New Zealand's economic performance compares very favorably against our peers. There are still areas where we have not done well for a long time (i.e. productivity) and areas that we should be better at (i.e. child poverty). Solving those will need further investment, not cuts.
This data also suggests that talk of somehow being "off-track" should be dismissed as a very superficial analysis. It's true that the cost of living is hurting many people. But If New Zealand is off-track then most other countries would welcome the opportunity to join us there.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Business NZ looks at the state of the economy through two measures – PMI (Performance of Manufacturing Index) and PSI (Performance of Services Index). If they score above 50 – the sectors are growing. Data today shows them at 47.5 and 44. A 🧵
The PMI fell 5.8 points to 47.5. This was the largest single month decline in its 20+ year history. New Orders (45.3) Employment (45.7) and Production (48.7) led the fall. Finished stocks (51.3) rose suggesting that companies are struggling to sell businessnz.org.nz/pmi/back-in-th…
The PSI “is now at a level seldom seen and consistent with a rapidly shrinking services sector” according to BNZ. Sales fell to 40.1. New orders fell to 43.2. This score is the lowest it's been since the economy was last in recession in June 2024. businessnz.org.nz/psi/service-wi…
I saw the below and thought that's a heck of a claim. So let's examine how National got here. A 🧵
This ad comes from a Ministerial Press Release . It states "Police data shows that violent crime has fallen". In the footnotes it then says "Violent crime is not a category of data that Police tracks". Both these things can't be true.beehive.govt.nz/release/violen…
The data actually comes from . I have no reason to doubt the sincerity of charteddaily - I don't know them. But its not clear what is meant by violent crime, there are just numbers not categories. And it's not the police saying violent crime has fallen.
Stats NZ measures child poverty on three measures – before housing costs, after housing costs, and material poverty. All three central estimates of poverty rose last year. This is the second year in a row in which the data is heading in the wrong direction. A 🧵
Stats NZ now estimates that 1 in 7 children live in households where they experience material poverty – 156,000. That means that households report missing out on essentials, living in cold and damp housing, because of the cost. That is the highest number since 2015
Child poverty is not distributed equally. 1 in 4 Tamariki Māori live in material poverty. 1 in 3 Pacific Children. Where a household has a disabled person, 1 in 4 children in those households are in material poverty. 8 out of 12 regions saw increases since 2021.
Stats NZ produced three new sets of data today - showing the headwinds facing the economy. Housing consents, employment data, and business numbers. All three show declines. A 🧵
Starting with the good news. The number of filled jobs rose just short of 6,000 in November 2024. With falls in primary and goods producing jobs being offset by growth in service-sector jobs. The bad news - its still 29,895 fewer filled jobs than November last year
Filled jobs by sector since last year:
construction – down 5.8 % (12,137 jobs)
administrative and support services – down 6.6 % (6,869 jobs)
manufacturing – down 2.4 % (5,823 jobs)
retail trade – down 2.4 % (5,445 jobs)
Welcome to more "vibes based analysis" on 90 day trials from the EMA. Zero hard data provided within this oped supports the use of 90 day trials, nor is their any mention of their potential misuse. What does the real evidence say? A 🧵 nzherald.co.nz/business/have-…
The oped claims they support employment. Motu Research found "“no evidence that the ability to use trial periods significantly increases firms’ overall hiring" in their work for the Treasury. They don't create jobs or employment opportunities treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/…
The oped claims "90-day trials give employers the confidence to take a risk ". Except the research shows "no evidence that the policy increased the probability that a new hire by a firm was a disadvantaged jobseeker for a range of definitions of disadvantaged jobseeker".
Its the last Sunday before Christmas, so as a special treat to myself I thought that I would look over the last 3 sets of Economic and Fiscal Updates from the Government. That gives us a sense of change over time, and if the government's current approach is working. A looong 🧵
First, GDP - Treasury Forecasts for GDP Growth have fallen every time they have updated them since the election. We are now a year behind where things were forecast to be in October 2023 – as you can see on the chart below – we have had no growth for a year.
It could be worse. The Treasury forecasts still look optimistic in comparison to the Reserve Bank forecasts. To March 2028, the RB thinks the economy will be cumulatively $11.7bn smaller than the Treasury. That would mean around $3.6bn in lower tax - or more cuts.