Ahead of tomorrow's @NZQandA Finance Debate, I thought that I should dig around for how the NZ economy is doing. A few charts here on the current state of play against the countries that we usually compare ourselves to. All data here is from the OECD, Stats NZ, and IMF.
Last quarter, our GDP growth of 0.9% was very impressive in comparison to our peers - only Japan beating us in terms of GDP growth.
When we look at the situation since COVID began (Q4 2019) the situation for GDP growth is even more marked. New Zealand has outperformed its peers quite significantly on this measure.
GDP is important - but arguably employment is even more important. Again, New Zealand can hold its head up high here. Australia and the Netherlands have just nipped ahead of us here, but we are better placed than anywhere else
Now the one everyone is talking about - inflation. It's not as good a picture as painted by GDP and employment - but also not as bad as you might think. Consumer Prices have risen 18% since COVID-19. That's not great - but also not much different to everywhere else
The picture is slightly better when it comes to our Public Debt. On the IMF measure, our debt is very low by international standards, and would be the envy of most countries we normally compare ourselves to
New Zealand's economic performance compares very favorably against our peers. There are still areas where we have not done well for a long time (i.e. productivity) and areas that we should be better at (i.e. child poverty). Solving those will need further investment, not cuts.
This data also suggests that talk of somehow being "off-track" should be dismissed as a very superficial analysis. It's true that the cost of living is hurting many people. But If New Zealand is off-track then most other countries would welcome the opportunity to join us there.
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Treasury opened the government books today, showing us their latest forecasts for the economy and govt. spending. The economy is forecast to remain resilient, with an average GDP growth of 2.6% across the next four years. But there are also some challenges in the data. A🧵
Most of the main economic indicators are largely as advertised at Budget in May. Unemployment peaks at 5.4% before falling to 4.6%. Inflation falls to 2.5% by June 2025. Wages rise faster than inflation. Overall, this is better than many had feared would be the case
Interest rates are expected to be higher for longer, driven in part by higher net migration. Treasury forecasts net migration of 100k in 2023/24. That helps lift house prices more quickly than previously forecast. It looks like a good time to be a Landlord.
National has identified nearly $2.5bn in cuts to public spending. It calls this "Savings from Back Office Bureaucracy". However an analysis from the CTU has identified many areas that Kiwis would consider front-line and essential. A thread...
Nationals numbers come from Budget 23 data
This breaks the departmental spending down so we can see the areas in which government spending is taking place. This also allows us to see what National has in its scope for the cuts programme.budget.govt.nz/budget/2023/es…
These areas include courts, biosecurity, and cybersecurity. It includes work on family violence and sexual violence. It includes serious fraud. It includes food safety. These are not areas for cuts. These should be areas where there is cross-party consensus that we need to invest
NZ is now in a technical recession - but only just - with GDP declining by -0.1%. That's equivalent to a fall of $45m in a $69.8bn economy, or about 1 minute of output per day across the quarter. Essentially, its well within the margin of error for GDP estimates
GDP data was driven in part by the impact of Cyclone Gabrielle and the poor weather earlier this year. If we exclude those one-off effects then it would likely have been flat or positive. If we look at GDP on an annual basis it was 2.9% higher than last year.
This data supports our view that further increases in the Official Case Rate aren’t necessary. The data also shows that faster cuts to government spending would likely make the situation worse, with government consumption already falling 2.3% from this time last year
The CTU has recosted National's Tax Bracket plan using information provided in Budget 23 and from IRD. This shows that they appear to have underestimated the cost of the package by $1.5bn across 4 years. This is mainly because they have not added in the impact of rising wages
National's last written costing for the package was $1.66bn annually. Our costing averages out at $2.05bn a year, or $1.57bn more across the forecast period. That's roughly equivalent to the cost of the Dunedin Hospital rebuild. Our figures have been verified by @BCLTax 👍
Recently, National has used another figure, which is $1.8bn. Even if we take that figure, they are a $1bn short over four years. We have been very cautious in our estimates, not costing in population growth for example. So the real-world costs are likely much higher
The CTU has costed Nationals Tax Package because it consistently refuses to. The clear take-away from $bns in tax cuts is that it is geared to those on the very highest incomes, with more than 2m New Zealanders getting $2.15 a week or less. A thread...
If Luxon delivered the tax bracket adjustment and the 39% rate change as PM, he would make 162 times the gain of a Minimum Wage worker. He would get $349 a week. The Minimum Wage Worker would get $2.15.
Overall, the gains are hugely skewed toward the well-off. 39% of the gains go to the highest 5% of income earners. 6% of the gains go to the 50% lowest paid taxpayers. More than 2m taxpayers get less than a loaf of Tip Top a week
A short 🧵 on the GDP numbers. The good news: New Zealand’s economy grew more quickly last quarter (1.7%) than Australia (0.9%), Canada (0.8%), Japan (0.9%), Euro area (0.7%), and the OECD average (0.4%). Both the UK and the US saw economic decline last quarter (-0.1% each).
Since the beginning of COVID the economy has grown by nearly 5% in real terms. Exports of goods and services are up 11.3% annually and annual GDP per capita was up. Together with low unemployment this is a positive sign of the continuing resilience of the NZ economy
Not so great news: There is a weakening trend of growth. The risk of recession in this data has been averted, but annual average growth has fallen from 4.9% to 1% in just 3 months