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The Story so far:
-> India pushes farm-sector reforms
-> It's met with not just protests, but a dormant separatist movement awakens overnight
-> India disrupts the movement by withdrawing said reforms
-> The separatist movement grows in scope, recruits local operatives with cross-border weapons training and a corps of suicide bombers is raised overnight
-> Throughout the farm-law protests and in its aftermath, there's a spate of violence in India, countless Indians die
-> India allegedly seeks out a key figure in this movement, and guns him down in terrorist safe haven Canada
-> The US, which has been spying on the Indian high-commission in Ottawa, hands Canada "evidence" of Indian involvement
-> Canada throws a public tantrum, wants India to admit its role, hand over those responsible, and promise never to repeat what it did
-> Canada wants a new normal where Canadians can tread on Indian sovereignty with impunity, and withdraw to Canada, where they're beyond reach
-> India learns just how reliable the US is and keeps this in mind when calibrating its own Indo-Pacific security strategy.
The only thing India can do in this situation is escalate. If Canada is trying to impose a normal on India, then India should try to impose its own normal on Canada. Take out even more Canadians involved in the separatist movement.
-> India pushes farm-sector reforms
-> It's met with not just protests, but a dormant separatist movement awakens overnight
-> India disrupts the movement by withdrawing said reforms
-> The separatist movement grows in scope, recruits local operatives with cross-border weapons training and a corps of suicide bombers is raised overnight
-> Throughout the farm-law protests and in its aftermath, there's a spate of violence in India, countless Indians die
-> India allegedly seeks out a key figure in this movement, and guns him down in terrorist safe haven Canada
-> The US, which has been spying on the Indian high-commission in Ottawa, hands Canada "evidence" of Indian involvement
-> Canada throws a public tantrum, wants India to admit its role, hand over those responsible, and promise never to repeat what it did
-> Canada wants a new normal where Canadians can tread on Indian sovereignty with impunity, and withdraw to Canada, where they're beyond reach
-> India learns just how reliable the US is and keeps this in mind when calibrating its own Indo-Pacific security strategy.
The only thing India can do in this situation is escalate. If Canada is trying to impose a normal on India, then India should try to impose its own normal on Canada. Take out even more Canadians involved in the separatist movement.
Couple of important takeaways here:
1. India has implicitly held the US (and not Canada) responsible for the resurgence of the khalistani movement, when it leaked that story to the Indian Express that it isn't touching Pannun because it thinks he's a CIA operative.
1. India has implicitly held the US (and not Canada) responsible for the resurgence of the khalistani movement, when it leaked that story to the Indian Express that it isn't touching Pannun because it thinks he's a CIA operative.
2. While it didn't lose territory, India found out that the US poses a bigger threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity than even China.
3. There will be recalibration in India's Indo-Pacific security calculus after this. The US has thrown India under the bus cheaply.
3. There will be recalibration in India's Indo-Pacific security calculus after this. The US has thrown India under the bus cheaply.
The Chinese may be at our borders, but the Americans are on our streets.
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