The pathetic absurdity of the Russian state. In the case Ukraine vs. Russian Federation in the International Court of Justice, Ukraine has argued that Russia’s invasion is unlawful because it was predicated on the alleged need to stop “the genocide against the people of Donbas.”
This claim, if true, might provide an exception to the UN Charter’s prohibition against armed violation of a state’s sovereignty. In other words, if a genocide in the Donbas were really occurring, Russia’s invasion to stop it might be lawful. Of course, the claim is false.
And this false claim of genocide necessarily involves the Genocide Convention of the UN. This case, if it proceeds, would compel Russia to disclose all evidence for such genocide.
So devastating is this prospect for Russia that it is fighting tooth and nail to have the case dismissed. Russia has paid a small army of Western lawyers who are this very moment in The Hague subjecting logic to torture worse than that of the Inquisition against heretics.
To prevent the case from proceeding, Russia’s desperate gamble is to argue that the court has no jurisdiction because the Genocide Convention does not apply because… there has been no genocide.
Let me slow down. This case does not even enter the question of Russia’s genocide against Ukrainians. It is about the claim that Ukraine committed genocide against ethnic Russians, which Russia used as a justification for its full invasion.
And to prevent that from being examined, Russia’s strategy is to argue that since there was no genocide here, there is no case. Russia is voluntarily destroying its own claims because it knows that these claims will be destroyed later, but in detail and under great scrutiny.
Russia is banking on having this case dismissed on “jurisdictional” grounds after it has admitted its lies but done so within the legal jargon of its lawyers. It is hoping few will notice and even fewer will understand what has happened.
What Russia fears is its lies being unravelled slowly and in great detail, especially in subsequent opinions written by the Court itself. I’m familiar with the work of some of the current judges and I trust they will not fall for such brazen attempts to manipulate the law.
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The video below of Putin speaking of Zelensky as an “ethnic Jew” placed by his “Western curators” is repulsive and infuriating. The most virulent kind of antisemitism is at the very heart of modern Russian ultranationalism (National Bolshevism or simply Nazism). ⬇️
Russian antisemitism can be traced back hundreds of years. But it is today’s version that is so dangerous and so central to modern Russian Nazism, imperialism and supremacism.
The birth of modern Russian antisemitism can be traced to the 70s Central Committee of the Komsomol whose functionary Zakharchenko, with KGB support, published pieces on the “Aryanism” of Russians in Tehnika Molodezhi (Техника молодёжи) magazine.
In 2019, Rand Co. completed a “Russian Grand Strategy” report for the Pentagon with first author S. Charap. Here is a table with conclusions. First column has Russian claims. Astoundingly, the report gives a “mixed” assessment on Russia’s claim it is a benign regional leader.
Elsewhere, the report consistently downplays fears of Russian aggression and essentially tacitly endorses, under the guise of “testing the claims,” the view that Russia is merely seeking greater stability through a multipolar world.
In making these arguments, the report, in addition to presenting a false view of Russian posture, recycles the points of two books that have served as invaluable resources for the Kremlin’s propaganda - Barry Posen’s “Restraint” and Stephen Walt’s “Taming American Power.”
Recognise Russian fear by the ever more frantic “It’s over; the counteroffensive has failed” pieces written by the mobilised army of Western academics and think-tankies. The Mearsheimers, the Lievens, the Charaps, the Kupchans of the world. Or by their Valdai affiliation.
The appeasement genre has spawned its own meta-pieces reflecting on the “hostile” forces against the noble warriors of the peace table. On cue, here is the @nytimes subtly or not so subtly giving the stage to the same cast of characters lamenting this. nytimes.com/2023/09/01/wor…
Here is Samuel Charap, that indefatigable Valdai warrior, humbly expressing despair that “we are a bit stuck.” It’s not clear who “we” are: the Kremlin-owned army of scribblers or the “collective West.”
Meet Capt. Ibrahim Traoré, a 34-year old Burkinabé military thug who in September 2022 thought to himself that it had been nine whole months since the year’s first coup and that his country’s bright future simply required another. He duly undertook this heavy burden.
Ibrahim’s main preoccupation appears to be with sitting in front of the mirror practicing his “badass” look. You have to understand: given that he has no power basis, that most Burkinabé officers don’t support him and the population not at all, “murderous” looks is all he has.
Still, let’s not dismiss Ibrahim’s meteoric rise. Did he dream that a year later he’d be sitting across the greatest leader in history (at least on the mortal human side), Comrade Vladimir Putin? I don’t think so.
One factor that led to Russia’s feeling of impunity isn’t talked about often. It’s NATO’s long-standing and deeply misguided choice to neglect the Black Sea entirely despite having three littoral member states.
The Putin regime understood early on that Russia’s projection of power and aggression crucially depend not only on access to the Black Sea, which of course it has always had, but also to the perception of dominance and then to the trampling of the laws of maritime navigation.
In the meantime, NATO continued to be timid, unwilling to do anything at all about raising its posture in the Black Sea and ultimately deferring to Erdogan’s inclination never to challenge Putin. Today, NATO continues to hide and prevaricate.
Musk has openly expressed his great concern for “Russian military casualties” if Starlink is used to coordinate counteroffensives to regain occupied territory. He’s not on record expressing concerns for the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian victims.
And despite the Pentagon pushing him not to do this, he deactivated Starlink terminals at crucial moments.
It appears that Musk actively monitors the shifting reality on the battlefield and actively intervenes using geofencing.