Thread by @rhodusinc

The Russian military doctrine is missile-centric. Serving as the principal means of WMD delivery, long range missiles secure Russian capacity to execute nuclear blackmail. Their production ongoing despite the sanctions regime implies that the targeting of sanctions is incorrect🧵

With this investigation, we propose a new look into the Russian missile industry’s chokepoints, specifically in its industrial equipment and processes. As Russia lost the Soviet machinery sector, its military producers have outsourced production of industrial equipment abroad

The power of OSINT is underestimated. Operating under the regime of secrecy, strategic missile industry appears to be impenetrable. And yet, we have built a representative picture of its manufacturing base, with its chokepoints, based exclusively on the publicly available sources

In this introductory material we demonstrate our method on example of a single Russian strategic missiles producer: the Votkinsk Plant. As a part of Roscosmos defence corporation, it is the only producer of solid-propellant ICBMs/SLBMs and SRBMs in Russia

The Votkinsk Plant is the single manufacturer of long-range solid-propellant ballistic missiles in Russia, including:

Intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) "Yars"
Submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) "Bulava"
Short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) "Iskander"

The Votkinsk Plant is one of the most secret military producers in Russia. Nevertheless, secrecy considerations come into conflict with other rationales that require the missile producers, their counteragents, and the state to disclose sensitive information rather than to hide it

This is the visual evidence we have collected on this one single production facility (the Votkinsk Plant) based on official propaganda. As the authorities need to project an image of well-equipped military industry, they must demonstrate visuals

Most are identifiable

We are starting with a relatively fresh video. This is the movie "Votkinsk Plant" of September 2022. It was published on the official page of this strategic missiles producer in Vkontakte (Russian social media)

Source:

vk.com/video-19996077…

2:14

On the left: Kovosvit MAS (Czechia) machine tool

On the right: Unidentified machine equipped with the Sinumerik (Germany) CNC controller

2:25 TOS Varnsdorf (Czechia) machine tool

2:28 TOS Varnsdorf machine with the identifiable "Воткинский завод" (Votkinsk Plant) sign on an machinist's uniform

2:29 Traub (Germany) machine tool

2:38

Foreground: Two Kovosvit MAS (Czechia) machining centres

2:44 Extron (Taiwan) machine equipped with Fanuc CNC controller

3:04 The CEO of Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin visits the Votkinsk Plant. On the background you can see the TOS Varnsdorf (Czechia) machine tool

4:17 Exton M4C (Taiwan) machine tool

4:20 ... equipped with the Fanuc CNC controller

4:56 Kemppi (Finland) welding machine

5:28 Smeral (Czechia/Czechoslovakia) forming equipment

5:34 For the first time, we can see the Russian-produced equipment. This is the pressing machine by the Voronezh-located Tyazhmehpress (Тяжмехпресс)

Whenever they can demonstrate the Russian equipment, the narrator always specifies it is Russian

5:41 The "ТМП" abbreviation meaning "Тяжмехпресс" (Tyazhmehpress) allows us to identify its producer

5:45 An operator is sitting behind the screen. The "Danielli Automation" (Italy) label in the upper left angle allows us to plausibly identify this equipment

Most probably it is the forging press by the Danieli Breda, part of the Danieli Group (Italy)

Consider this visual posted on the Votkinsk Plant official page . We can see the same blue label in the upper left corner of the screen vk.com/wall-199960779…

In 2016, the Votkinsk Plant announced a nearly $100 million capital investment program which included construction of a new 100,000 sq m forging facility. In June 2017, it ordered a 10-MN mono-frame forging press from the Italian company Danieli Breda

web.archive.org/web/2023031521…

web.archive.org/web/2023031521…

While the purchase of forging press Danieli Breda cannot be verified based on the public procurements data, purchases of *spare parts* allow us to verify it with certainty

This is a very common pattern:

Purchase of equipment - classified
Purchase of spare parts - transparent

We have finished with the first video. Now, we will review the Votkinsk Plant official page in Vkontakte social media

March 27, 2022. Kovosvit MAS (Czechia)

Source: vk.com/wall-199960779…

May 19, 2022. JINN FA (Taiwan) machine with Fanuc CNC controller

Source:
vk.com/wall-199960779…

September 20, 2021

TOS Varnsdorf (Czechia) machining center

Source: vk.com/wall-199960779…

September 4, 2021

For the first time, we see an (unidentified) machine with the Russian CNC control (Balt-System)

An offshoot of the Gorbachev's industrial policy, Balt-System produces obsolete 2-3 axes CNCs for modernising the Soviet-era stock

Source: vk.com/wall-199960779…

Now we are switching to the second video:

"The head of Udmurtia visited the “Votkinsk plant”. (09.27.2016). “Vesti”. Udmurtia. Youtube-channel News_24

Source: mega.nz/file/biJ2BKyT#…

0:20 Special Casting Workshop №027

This is the location of equipment you will see below

0:29 The first photo of the robotic equipment

0:32 The Swedish-Swiss robotic equipment producer ABB is a major supplier for the Russian military industry. It has an extensive network of distributors and maintenance centres in Russia

Even in 2023, their withdrawal is incomplete new.abb.com/ru/partnery/ro…
new.abb.com/ru/servis/serv…

1:40 Cleveland Tool and Machine Inc” (USA). Perhaps this is a syringe machine for making ceramic molds

Another visit by another head of Udmurtia "Alexander Brechalov visited the Votkinsk Plant" (2021)

0:46 On the background you see a Kovosvit MAS (Czechia) produced CNC lathe SP430/1100

See: mega.nz/file/Wv5xhZ6B#…
kovosvit.com/wp-content/upl…

0:59

Foreground: the TOS Varnsdorf (Czechia) horizontal boring machine

Background: Unidentified machine by the Eroglu (Turkey)

Now let’s have a look at the corporate video of the «PARUS» IT company about the Votkinsk Plant (April 2022)

0:25 Walter (Germany) HELITRONIC VISION 400 L five-axes grinding machine

Source mega.nz/file/SqQjSS6J#…

An article in the professional metalworking magazine gives some context on the specific purpose of the Walter machines on the Votkinsk plant

Source:
issuu.com/zolotstrof/doc…

1:00

On the right we see MAZAK label. It is probably a MAZAK H-22- 80 tools Horizontal machining center

If our identification is correct, the Votkinsk Plant is still exploiting one of the earliest mass produced CNC machine models in the world machtechnica.com/en/metalworkin…

0:06 Finally, we come to the neat part. You may have noticed that most labels in this (and other) videos are not blurred. This one is an exception. The labels both on machine itself and on the CNC panel are blurred, supposedly making it harder to identify

Most probably, the management told the video production team to blur the labels. And yet, the team had not idea what exactly to blur. Specifically, they forgot to blur the «Ecoline» and the "DMG Mori" labels, allowing us to identify the producer

It is the DMG Mori AG

Why would the DMG MORI machine be the only one with the blurred labels? The most plausible explanation is that the military industrial management sees *this* information as the most sensitive. Why?

Because this machine may be Russian-made

The DMG Mori AG-built Ulyanovsk machine tool building plant (USZ) is the only new machine tool plant created in Russian since the fall of USSR, 1991. This has been the most serious attempt to indigenise the Western high end production

We will cover this case later

Let's summarise. The visual evidence on this single Russian strategic missiles producer indicates:

1. The wide use of Western European to a lesser degree East Asian production
2. Almost no Russia-produced equipment
3. The total invisibility of China

How could that be?

Wait for our upcoming report:

"How does Russia make missiles?"

Subscribe to our newsletter:

"Votkinsk Plant: How to make an Iskander? Case study of a Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles producer"



It describes our method in more detailrhodus.substack.com/p/how-to-make-…

As @McFaul pointed out

We could not agree more