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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
@kamilkazani
Sep 25, 2023 • 13 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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The Rhodus Story

On a sunny spring day of 2022 someone transferred me 10 Ethereums. That was a lot of money. With this money I could do something big

So, I decided to do something interesting 🧵 Image
Not long before that, I wandered into an article «Germany and Czechia help Russia to build ballistic missiles Sarmat and Sineva with the nuclear warheads» (2017). A case study on the Krasmash missile producing plant, it posed some questions that analysts seldom ask:

🤔 Image
What was the article about?

The Krasnoyarsk Machine Building Plant (Krasmash) is one of two key intercontinental ballistic missile manufacturers in Russia. Krasmash produces and maintains the liquid-propellant missiles such as the ICBM Sarmat and SLBM Bulava Image
In 2016, a Krasnoyarsk regional TV channel "Yenisei" broadcasted a program on the modernization of Krasmash

It had some interesting visuals. Image
That was a VLC 4000 ATC + C1 vertical lathe produced by a Czech company TDZ Turn

Source: (p.1). tdz-turn.com/contentBox/dow…
Image
How did this European machine end up on Krasmash?

That was surprisingly easy to track. Back then, TDZ Turn listed a Krasnoyarsk-based company KR Prom (КР Пром) as their official distributor in Russia

TDZ Turn -> KR Prom -> Krasmash

*there is more documental evidence available Image
What did I learn from this article?

1. The most highly classified & strategically important military producers in Russia operate with Western machine tools

2. I can investigate this based on the most mundane publicly available sources

3. And track the entire supply chain
What did I *not* learn from this article?

1. How import dependent is the Russian military industry?

2. Who is it import dependent upon?

3. Why?
As I could not find the answers in literature, I had to produce them myself. If I do not have a credible picture of how Russia produces weaponry, I will construct it bit by a bit. As I cannot do it alone, I will build a team

And that's how the @rhodusinc was born Image
@rhodusinc One year later, we have... Image
@rhodusinc Some of our materials will be posted on our @Rhodusinc Twitter page. This is a short thread with selected visuals on a Russian strategic missiles producer - the Votkinsk Plant

Paywalled materials will be posted in our newsletter. Here we outline the case study of Votkinsk Plant in more detail

rhodus.substack.com/p/how-to-make-…
It is your donations that made this investigation possible. If you want to support our work, you can:

1. Subscribe to our newsletter
2. Make a wire transfer

BENEFICIARY: Rhodus Inc.
ACCOUNT NUMBER: 9801141480
ROUTING NUMBER: 084106768
BENEFICIARY ADDRESS: 447 Broadway, 2nd Floor, 197 New York, NY 10013
BANK NAME: Evolve Bank & Trust
BANK ADDRESS: 6000 Poplar Ave, Suite 300 Memphis, TN 38119

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
May 2
Fake jobs are completely normal & totally natural. The reason is: nobody understands what is happening and most certainly does not understand why. Like people, including the upper management have some idea of what is happening in an organisation, and this idea is usually wrong.
As they do not know and cannot know causal relations between the input and output, they just try to increase some sort of input, in a hope for a better output, but they do not really know which input to increase.
Insiders with deep & specific knowledge, on the other hand, may have a more clear & definite idea of what is happening, and even certain, non zero degree of understanding of causal links between the input and output

(what kind of input produces this kind of output)
Read 6 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Apr 12
There is a common argument that due process belongs only to citizens

Citizens deserve it, non citizens don’t

And, therefore, can be dealt with extrajudicially

That is a perfectly logical, internally consistent position

Now let’s think through its implications
IF citizens have the due process, and non-citizens don’t

THEN we have two parallel systems of justice

One slow, cumbersome, subject to open discussion and to appeal (due process)

Another swift, expedient, and subject neither to a discussion nor to an appeal (extrajudicial)
And the second one already encompasses tens of millions of non citizens living in the United States, legal and illegal, residents or not.

Now the question would be:

Which system is more convenient for those in power?

Well, the answer is obvious
Read 10 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Apr 5
I have recently read someone comparing Trump’s tariffs with collectivisation in the USSR. I think it is an interesting comparison. I don’t think it is exactly the same thing of course. But I indeed think that Stalin’s collectivisation offers an interesting metaphor, a perspective to think aboutImage
But let’s make a crash intro first

1. The thing you need to understand about the 1920s USSR is that it was an oligarchic regime. It was not strictly speaking, an autocracy. It was a power of few grandees, of the roughly equal rank.
2. Although Joseph Stalin established himself as the single most influential grandee by 1925, that did not make him a dictator. He was simply the most important guy out there. Otherwise, he was just one of a few. He was not yet the God Emperor he would become later.
Read 30 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 16
The great delusion about popular revolts is that they are provoked by bad conditions of life, and burst out when they exacerbate. Nothing can be further from truth. For the most part, popular revolts do not happen when things get worse. They occur when things turn for the better
This may sound paradoxical and yet, may be easy to explain. When the things had been really, really, really bad, the masses were too weak, to scared and too depressed to even think of raising their head. If they beared any grudges and grievances, they beared them in silence.
When things turn for the better, that is when the people see a chance to restore their pride and agency, and to take revenge for all the past grudges, and all the past fear. As a result, a turn for the better not so much pacifies the population as emboldens and radicalises it.
Read 6 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 1
Three years of the war have passed

So, let’s recall what has happened so far

The first thing to understand about the Russian-Ukrainian war is that Russia did not plan a war. And it, most certainly, did not plan the protracted hostilities of the kind we are seeing today Image
This entire war is the regime change gone wrong.

Russia did not want a protracted war (no one does). It wanted to replace the government in Kyiv, put Ukraine under control and closely integrate it with Russia

(Operation Danube style) Image
One thing to understand is that Russia viewed Ukraine as a considerable asset. From the Russian perspective, it was a large and populous country populated by what was (again, from the Russian perspective) effectively the same people. Assimilatable, integratable, recruitable Image
Read 32 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Feb 8
Why does Russia attack?

In 1991, Moscow faced two disobedient ethnic republics: Chechnya and Tatarstan. Both were the Muslim majority autonomies that refused to sign the Federation Treaty (1992), insisting on full sovereignty. In both cases, Moscow was determined to quell them. Image
Still, the final outcome could not be more different. Chechnya was invaded, its towns razed to the ground, its leader assassinated. Tatarstan, on the other hand, managed to sign a favourable agreement with Moscow that lasted until Putin’s era.

The question is - why. Image
Retrospectively, this course of events (obliterate Chechnya, negotiate with Tatarstan) may seem predetermined. But it was not considered as such back then. For many, including many of Yeltsin’s own partisans it came as a surprise, or perhaps even as a betrayal.

Let's see why Image
Read 24 tweets

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