Saint Javelin Profile picture
Sep 30 8 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The mysterious disappearance of Russian tanks, but how can this be? There are no losses they said.

This is the 22nd Central Tank Reserve Base, located at geographic coordinates 58.46468165, 41.50848361. It stands as one of the largest in terms of the number of T-80UD and other tanks.

Research conducted by OSINT specialists revealed that as of June 2021, there were approximately 700 "good" tanks at this facility, meaning tanks ready for active deployment.

Image
Image
February 2023: By this time, the number of tanks ready for deployment had decreased to 575. This is our starting point. Image
Let's make some comparisons regarding the decrease in the number of tanks since February. Photos above and below from left - spring-winter 2023. Photo below right - summer 2023. It's evident that even in the highlighted areas, the number of tanks has decreased, at least by 55 units (the red, blue, and orange rectangles in the photos). Interestingly, the pink rectangle indicates the area where tanks are in poor condition, yet there's still a decrease in the number of tanks. According to estimates, between 10 to 30 tanks were removed from the zone of tanks in poor condition.
Image
The most significant change affected the T-80UD tanks, the quantity of which remained unchanged from 2021 until the summer of 2023. In the photo, you can see the condition of the area with T-80UD tanks as of spring-early summer 2023. Image
June 12, 2023: The first appearance of the brown color indicates that tanks were relocated, and places where the grass didn't grow became visible from satellites. In simple terms, there is no green color, as seen in previous photos, in the orange zone, which means there are no tanks there.
Image
By August 8, 2023, the number of tanks had decreased even further, leaving only a few rows. It's worth closely examining the previous photos to notice the difference. The second photo shows the situation on September 13, 2023. There are fewer tanks in the highlighted squares.
Image
Image
As of September 23, 2023, there are not many tanks left in this area. Thus, from the 575 tanks in "good" condition on February 20, 2023, we can visually confirm the deconservation of 180-200 T-80UD tanks and up to 80 units of other tanks.

Out of the 700 tanks before the start of the war, at this moment, there are up to 300 tanks left in this storage base. Perhaps even fewer, but the quality of the images allows us to track changes only in areas where tanks are clustered, it's almost impossible to spot tanks that stay alone.
Image
All of this points to significant losses incurred by the occupiers in Ukraine. This material once again prompts us to consider the value of investing in the Ukrainian army and the invaluable contribution made by Ukrainians to the victory of democracy over the growing threat posed by authoritarian states. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have essentially dismantled the world's second-largest army. At this point, all that's left for Russians is to frantically extract the remnants of "Soviet greatness" from storage to avoid a complete loss of combat capability.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Saint Javelin

Saint Javelin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @saintjavelin

Sep 25
ATACMS missiles are just around the corner. Will it live up to our expectations and be so effective?

If the recent news in the media is to be reformatted into an official statement from the United States regarding the long-awaited missile supply, the Ukrainian command will face a significant task in selecting targets and using these missiles effectively. Let's examine some key nuances 🧵:
Image
ATACMS is primarily a ballistic missile. In Ukraine, such missiles are considered the most dangerous because a significant part of Ukraine's air defense systems cannot engage such targets. The SAMP-T and Patriot systems in Ukraine's arsenal are capable of countering them. Therefore, it's essential to understand that these missiles are not "unstoppable" as many are accustomed to believing, selecting the right target and preparing for an effective strike is crucial.
What's important to note is that Russia has a much larger number of air defense systems capable of countering ballistic targets, for example, the S-400 and S-300V complexes. These complexes, when used properly, show themselves at a good level( You can just remember how Ukraine uses S-300 which has much less capabilities than S-400 ), therefore successful attacks require careful planning, and a good strategy is better than relying on perceived weaknesses in Russian air defenses.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 18
Another Russian T-72 attempted to break the record for the "longest turret flight." To achieve such a result, the AFU needed slightly less than $1,000, compared to the tank's cost of 3-4 million dollars.

Ukrainian forces are using FPV drones, with extremely high efficiency compared to their cost. 🧵
It all started with someone deciding to attach an RPG-7 warhead to a default FPV drone and testing how it works. From the very beginning, this idea showed high efficiency, and the first videos of infantry and vehicles being destroyed were publicly shared. Scared of the effectiveness, one Russian blogger (who has since accidentally passed away) dubbed them VPN drones.
As the production of such drones increased, they drew the attention of the occupiers who also fine-tuned their production, which now matches or even surpasses the scale of Ukrainian production. However, there's a catch – while the Russians expanded their production, they significantly lagged behind in technologies.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 6
Breaking through the first line of defense won't make the Ukrainian advance any easier. Let's explain why.

Recently, there has been active discussion in the media about breaking through the first line of defense, which creates an illusion of total victory and fast success for readers. However, this is not entirely accurate. Let's start with the fact that modern defense is not built solely on trenches, minefields, and other fortifications. The base of modern defense is reconnaissance and available firepower.

Video: Ukrainian soldier walks close to “Surovikin line”
Fortifications on the modern battlefield are tools that allow reconnaissance and firepower assets to have more time to accomplish their mission by deterring advancing forces. A squad of soldiers in a trench is less of a threat than a single artillery gun that has targets to work using a drone flying over the battlefield.
The main challenge faced by the Ukrainian forces is the terrain. The feature of southern Ukraine is that it is primarily composed of steppes, which significantly facilitates enemy reconnaissance. The earlier the concentration of troops can be detected, the more time the enemy command has to react and prepare firepower assets.
Read 9 tweets
Sep 5
Ukrainian forces have decisively breached Russia's first defensive line near Zaporizhzhia, according to Brigade General Tarnavskiy in an interview with The Guardian.

He said that the Ukrainian army is positioned between the first and second lines of defense. Tarnavskiy also noted that the enemy is shifting reserves not only from Ukraine but also from russia itself. We have confirmation of this.
Image
In the trunk of a car, there is a professional Russian soldier whose name is Imrat, he served on contract in the 76th Airborne Assault Division from the city of Pskov with the rank of Sergeant. This division previously used to do operations in the Kreminna direction but was redeployed due to the crumbling russian defense on the Zaporizhzhia front.
He took part in operations in Syria, Kherson, Popasna, Kreminna, and the final point, Robotyne. He was fortunate to get wounded in combat and after that, he was taken by soldiers from the 47th Mechanized Brigade. He was extremely surprised that he received assistance, and what's more, that the assistance came from female medics.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 4
This thread is a real example that miracles do happen, even on the Zaporizhzhia front.

It all began when a soldier of the 47th mechanized brigade known as "Maestro”, with his squad on one of the "Bradleys," went to assault the most fortified position on the outskirts of the village of Robotyne.
He came under artillery fire during the clearing of positions and went deep beneath the earth. After escaping from the trench, he found himself disoriented and miraculously made his way to the last house in the village, passing approximately 500 meters of open field from the trench where he was.
When he recovered, he began devising a survival strategy. According to his words, surrendering was not an option. For a month, he figured out the routes and rotation schedule of the russians. Thanks to this, Maestro found opportunities to move without encountering patrols, allowing him to steal the supplies necessary for survival.

P.S russians had conflicts because they thought that someone was stealing among them.
Read 6 tweets
Aug 29
Why Ukraine Needs More Western Armored Vehicles: A Comprehensive Thread

Western vehicles are critical to helping save the lives of Ukrainian soldiers, and to understand why, let's compare the Soviet made BMP-1, which the Ukrainian military has been using for decades, and the American made "Bradley Fighting Vehicle”, which the Ukrainian military recently acquired .
First, let's take this example from a soldier in Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade "Magura" regarding the survivability of Bradley crews. "I personally witnessed a Bradley take 5 direct hits (3 on one side, 2 on the other) with ATGMs. It damaged the tracks, it damaged equipment, but the crew and personnel successfully exited the vehicle. And in another example, when the Bradley hit a TM-62 mine, there were no injuries to the crew, only damaged tracks."
The Soviet built BMP-1 wasn't produced as a vehicle that would preserve the crew's lives. It's a lightly armored tin can that, due to its equipment layout and poor armor, leaves no chance of survival for the crew. Its anti-mine protection is useless so if the vehicle hits a mine, the detonation will certainly result in casualties.
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(