Thread by @jabuttee

a deadly miscalculation of 2022 was that air defense assets would negate the use of jets for both sides. by now, russia is throwing 1000 guided bombs per month, to great effect. orikhiv, the town on the ukrainian side behind robotyne, will be gone soon.

all those red plane symbols? multiple bombs each. a massive strain on UAF

you will see me post some "negative" content from now on, and i promise you i want nothing but the best for ukraine. things need to change, and this miscalculation needs to be talked about (and other ones)

neither side feels comfortable putting air defense forward, because radars are astonishingly bad at detecting slow fixed wing drones. anything you put forward will get spotted and destroyed by a PGM or - surprise - another drone it can't detect.

this gave jets freedom, and the russians were smart enough to exploit it. ukraine does not have the hardware to even remotely do the same OR stop the russians from doing it. it is just Su-34s flying at altitude along the coast all day, dropping glide bombs with next to no worry.

JDAMSKI massively trumped JDAM-ER. nobody cares if JDAM-ER can pinpoint a hamster, we have to dig out PDFs to inform ourselves about esoteric naval mines to find out just how few wing kits exist while russia is churning out 1000 kits a month.

across the board russia is embracing technology. the days of biblical artillery barrages over popasna are gone. and it's working for them.

the footage from some of their recent deep strikes is alarming. the drones evidently have better optics now, the tornado missiles look suspiciously more capable. and iranian and north korean shells are killing europeans.

i invite you to look at the pristine shiny new iranian grad missiles before you make fun of them. the north korean shells? ukraine would kill for them.

iranian ballistic missiles have the potential to trump ATACMS. because of numbers.

so where will the collective west go? freeze the conflict? the same idiots that miscalculated are now saying russia already lost, and i don't know if i should laugh or cry.

the russians will go for kharkiv and odesa as soon as they have the means to do so in a frozen conflict. they are literally calling it holy ground, fucking listen to them. you are saying they already lost because you want convenience. there is nothing else behind it.

we have already been here before. crimea and 2 oblasts in 2014. 2 more in 2022. they will just wait and take another couple in a few years.

and during all this time they will pump your societies full of division and tear you to shreds from the inside.

they only understand strength, wake the fuck up. NATO will be undermined from the inside and it will work. you don't believe me but tucker will say "why would I care about lithuania?", i promise you.

they need to lose. it is the single most important objective for western democracy since WWII.