You can outperform most venture funds by buying LEGO.
I analyzed the last 20 years of secondhand LEGO pricing data, and found randomly purchasing sets will match most VC's returns
if you're somewhat intentional about what you buy-- you massively outperform even the best firms
I pulled data on 16,000 LEGO releases since the year 2000. I dropped any promotional items, duplicate items, or any other oddballs. This got me down to 10k or so.
For each, I then pulled in resell data from bricklink for each item to get current market price (ebay prices higher)
This allowed me to calculate a net IRR, assuming you bought it at release, and held it until 2023.
The VC benchmark data is sourced from the Cambridge Associates
recent years are iffy because of extreme paper markups (30%+ mean IRR). The data seems best through 2010/2015
In most years, random purchasing rivaled the returns of the median venture fund.
If you just blindly bought certain themes, you can consistently generate double digit IRR across all vintages. For most, resale was high enough at EOY1 that these strategies would be obvious.
Dollar value, and piece count, seem to have less effect on present resale value.
But other strategies seem possible.
Applying modest statistical methods, on like two years of data, leads to finding strategies producing 20%+ irr over 10y+
the world of super alternative assets is hilariously vast and probably deeply unexplored.
there are paths towards transcendence (a hamptons compound w/ a 1974 Land Rover Series III) that involve deploying capital at things other than b2b software
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i spent ~3 years dealing with debilitating pain and weakness in my leg before progressing to the point where I was nearly unable to walk.
I went to every top doctor I could find, and none could offer a consistent diagnosis, let alone a cure. why?
because the pain wasn’t real.
I found my cure via Dr John Sarno.
sarno pioneered the theory that much chronic pain is caused by repressed emotions and psychological stress rather than physical injury - what he called TMS (Tension Myositis Syndrome)
to review: executive health is a major profit driver for top hospitals.
you, a fancy executive, are flown out to any number of world class hospitals that are happy to take your money in exchange for a cash pay 3-day visit with a series of world class specialists.
if you are dealing with a complex illness, this can be an incredible asset. skipping the lines to get access to the top specialists in your field with top tier care coordination and a great user experience is, of course, worth thousands of dollars to an individual with resources
Olin short cut selectivity by offering full tuition scholarships to every student. You don't need billions to achieve this, a $400m endowment did it for Olin for 20 years before mismanagement cut it short.
This works, steal it.
2. Project-Based Learning
Olin's greatest innovation was project based learning. You cut lectures, and have students learn through building and shipping end to end projects. This also forces cross disciplinary work across degree agrees.
I went to Olin College, a tiny engineering school outside Boston.
Olin was once the top engineering college in America, now its in free fall. The actions of the board and administration are unacceptable; Olin was a powerhouse, and it still can be.
Here's what's really going on
Olin was founded in 1997, fueled by a $460 million gift from the Olin Foundation, as an experimental hub for reimagining engineering education.
It championed hands-on, project-based learning. The approach worked, and scaled up at many top universities.
Olin decided to stay small, giving every student a full scholarship and housing, never expanding beyond a few hundred students.
Admissions selectivity soared, and the college quickly ranked among the top in the nation.
In 2020, an explosion rocked Satartia, Mississippi.
A thick cloud engulfed the town as 911 calls flooded in. One mother begged for help as her daughter gasped for air. Residents passed out standing up
Satartia is the most important infrastructure failure you've never heard of.
Satartia, Mississippi is a small community on the banks of the Yazoo River in western Mississippi.
Most residents were unaware that a 24-inch CO2 pipeline ran near their town-- part of a system the White House sees as key to defeating climate change.
The pipeline was part of a carbon capture and storage effort.
CCS captures CO2 emissions at the source and transports them to long-term storage in pockets deep underground.
The Biden administration poured an initial $251 million into funding CCS in 2023.
Every week, a dozen new companies boasting "tech-enabled healthcare for the rich" announce massive funding rounds.
I think nearly every single one fundamentally misunderstands the business of high end medical care.
Here's how to build a real executive physical killer:
over the last two years I've done basically every single executive physical.
I've flown to the Mayo Clinic in the middle of winter, five times, I met a referral only infusion clinic in an empty warehouse filled with buddha statues, I've done every variety of full body MRI
more important, I've interviewed patients of each.
academic medical centers pull in tens of millions a year to serve these patients, and techniques used here are a leading indicator for what the rest of care will look like.