Thread by @umairh

If someone told you HALF of our global economies would be destroyed due to climate change, would you believe them?

Well, the research doesn’t lie. We're on a collision course, and this is a data-driven reality check. 1/7

New research from a group that’s the antithesis of "alarmists"—The British Institute of Actuaries—just dropped a bombshell. They have zero motives to exaggerate.

Their take? We’ve SEVERELY underpriced climate risk. 2/7

Recall the 2008 financial crisis? Dubbed a 'Minsky Moment'—a crash where asset values weren't what they seemed. Now, climate change is steering us toward a "Climate Minsky Moment". Assets worldwide are OVERvalued because climate risks aren't properly accounted for. 3/7

Scenes we're witnessing—megafires, towns incinerated, Antarctica melting at alarming rates—are events theorized for 2050. Yet, here we are in 2023. Earth’s warning sign: Our current models? Way off. 4/7

So our current crises were predicted for 2050. We're living the future.

The craziest part is, we're still relying on economic models see just 2% GDP drop for a 3°C rise.

Reality check: we're at around 1.5°C and the toll is massive. Our modeling needs a serious reboot. 5/7

In fact, many models assume GDP growth in a “Hothouse Earth” scenario. Widespread crop failures, water scarcity, and town-leveling events somehow lead to growth? The Institute of Actuaries highlights the glaring flaws in such projections. 6/7

Historically, civilizations can't bear a 50% GDP loss. The stakes? Our very existence. This isn’t a drill—it’s a clarion call for our age. The real threat of civilizational collapse is closer than we think. Act now, or our future might be history. 7/7
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