The world's worst air pollution crisis is happening right now across Kalimantan & Sumatra, Indonesia ๐ฎ๐ฉ
According to our monitoring network, PM2.5 is at a 24-hr average of around 300 ยตg/m^3 (hazardous AQI of 350), 1-hr averages peaking at 750 (above the AQI max)
A thread ๐งต [1/n]
Persistent fires in Kalimantan, particularly in Central & South provinces, are sending a thick plume of smoke that by today has enfulged pretty much the whole of Indonesian Borneo (~500,000 kmยฒ). Millions of people have been exposed to hazardous air pollution for weeks now.
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The situation is also bad in Sumatra, where fires in Lampung & South Sumatra are sending a thick plume north affecting millions on the island, but also densely populated cities across the Malacca Straits to Singapore ๐ธ๐ฌ & Malaysia ๐ฒ๐พ.
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Most of these fires are on tropical peatlands that have been degraded due to deforestation & drainage. Tackling peat fires on this scale is beyond the capacity of civil contingency agencies. Smouldering fires require huge volumes of water to extinguish.
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Our experiments @ImperialHazelab have shown that peat fires will continue to burn even following heavy rainfall events. These fires will not go away until the wet season, which under the current El Niรฑo conditions might be delayed or substantially diminished.
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This is a recurring disaster. In 2015 (El Niรฑo), the smog from these fires resulted in the premature deaths of 10,000s and more than 600,000 severe asthma attacks in children. This was possibly the worst ever human-caused environmental disaster.
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[6/n]ehjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11โฆ
Part of our @NERCscience project (@Kalimantanlest1) hopes to develop a better understanding of exposure to smoke pollution. Deploying sensors in communities, indoors, outdoors, and personal portable devices to identify those most at risk.
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Right now, our sensor network is highlighting just how bad things can get, and I worry for our volunteers who are having to live through this. A quick look @ThePurpleAir map shows that our network in the Palangkaraya region is the global max.
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As usual, the 'transboundary' air pollution blame game is at play, with Malaysia blaming Indonesia for their poor air quality @MongabayID
Things aren't so simple. Leaving the transnational corporation & financing responsibilities aside, there are also fires on peatlands in Malaysia... I was measuring the smoke from a whole bunch of them just three weeks ago with @Inter_PEAT, all within 80 km of Kuala Lumpur.
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The prognosis isn't good. Significant rain is what's needed, and under El Niรฑo that might not come for some time. Despite the millions suffering hazardous risk of acute health impacts, this unfolding disaster is noticeably lacking in media attention.
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Read more about our Kalimantan Lestari (Kali) project here: kali-project.com
"I'm not aware of a similar period when all components of the climate system were in record-breaking or abnormal territory"
This is what I mean by "all components of the climate system"... [๐งต1/n]
We're most familiar with air temperature records. These are being smashed for individual weather stations, regions & countries all over the planet. June in the UK was 0.9ยฐC warmer than any previous June on record. Global assimilations show the same pattern.
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The surface of our oceans have been warmer than any other time on record since *March* and the difference between previous records & this year is widening. El Nino is playing a role, but that has only just begun. The North Atlantic plot is from @LeonSimons8
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What are tipping points?
They are processes whereby a system experiences a shift in state when a threshold in its conditions (caused by forcing) is breached. The shift is relatively rapid & if you reverse the forcing, the system does not return to its earlier state.
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Examples of systems that exhibit tipping point behaviour:
- Society (often related to critical mass where once a few people have adopted or contracted something, a rapid shift follows, e.g. viruses, tech adoption, fashion)
- Financial markets
- Earth's climate & ecosystems
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A fire ecology example: From forest to non-forest. Stabilising feedbacks keep a forest a forest. But if you keep forcing (e.g. with logging & climate change), a tipping point is crossed & new mechanisms help to maintain the non-forest, even if you reverse the forcings.
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I *hope* we're not crossing tipping points. We might not know for some time and & we may not know in our lifetimes. But it's very hard to look at these data & not be very worried. The past three days are *likely* to have been the warmest on our planet since records began. [1/3]
Daily data are preliminary estimates using models that will be carefully evaluated over the next few weeks. There appear to be few places on the planet cooler than average, with dramatic +20ยฐC anomalies over Antarctica (it's winter there).
The reason why we can't know about tipping points is because thresholds are not well-defined for most of them. We simply don't have the precision. Many are also related to slow inertial processes that even if we were to cross thresholds today, we may not know about it for decades
Today, there are ox bow lakes in the sky. A river is driven by gravity. The polar jet stream is driven by the temperature difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes. That difference is getting smaller. And like a river, the jet stream meanders. [1/5]
@cambecc
Why does this matter? High pressure systems get stuck in the meanders & can persist for many weeks. In the summer that means heatwaves and prolonged dry spells. Here's the temperature anomaly 3-week forecast for the NH. Check out NW Canada stuck in one of those meanders ๐จ๐ฆ
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And this inevitably leads to more fire-conducive conditions. Read more about this here @climate @daniellebochove:
Signs of fire activity in Canada moving further north this week, with multiple fires burning inside the Arctic Circle in the Northwest Territories and Yukon, driven in part by temperatures ~10ยฐC above average.
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https://t.co/piH10oFNsgworldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-151.929334โฆ
A persistent 8-14ยฐC heatwave looks set to continue over this northwestern region of Canada for the next 3 weeks. I expect this might be the next big fire story by mid-July.
@TropicalTidbits
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Here's a nice close-up of that fire in the NW of the Northwest Territory inside the Arctic Circle at 67ยฐN courtesy of @Pierre_Markuse & @sentinel_hub:
Parts of the North Sea are >6ยฐC warmer than usual for this time of the year. It's probably the most anomalously warm body of water on the planet.
There are severe storm warnings in place for much of Western Europe... [1/2]
With the rest of western Europe surrounded by a north Atlantic Ocean heatwave, it's perhaps no surprise that there are multiple severe storm warnings today. Large to very large hail, strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. @Estofex
Here's the global context so you can compare the North Sea anomaly with the rest of the world. Only the Sea of Japan has a similarly extreme anomaly.