Thread by @cwjones89

Today I woke up to a picture of a street in Ashkelon that I used to walk down regularly on the front page of CNN, aflame and littered with burned-out cars.

I've been stunned. As a sense-making exercise for myself, here's a brief 🧵with some thoughts on what this means:

A great strategic threat to Hamas is that the Sunni Arab countries will choose to set the Palestine issue aside and normalize ties with Israel. This has already happened with the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.

Recently there have been reports of the Biden administration mediating further productive talks with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is the holy grail of efforts for Sunni Arab-Israel rapprochement, because of Saudi Arabia's influence throughout the Sunni world.

IMO, this is what Hamas is trying to disrupt. The goal is to provoke a military response so massive that it becomes politically impossible for any Sunni Arab to recognize Israel.

NB: Saudi Arabia was one of the first countries to condemn Hamas this morning.

But this is a big gamble for Hamas, because the news coming out of Israel today is horrific.

Hamas slaughtered hundreds of people and kidnapped dozens of others. The footage spreading across Twitter and the news media today is reminiscent of the fall of Mosul to ISIS in 2014.

Videos of Hamas fighters celebrating as they parade partially undressed captive women through the streets might play well with the most rabidly anti-Israel sector of the Middle Eastern public, but it puts many of Hamas' sympathizers in the West in a difficult position.

I'm not talking about the subset of people who don't think of Jewish people as fully human. Nothing will change their minds. Footage like this only confirms their belief system.

I'm talking about people whose sympathies with Hamas are based on perceived victimhood.

These people often think about the conflict in terms of proportionality contrasting minor Hamas attacks that kill a few people with massive Israeli retaliation.

When Hamas takes over 22 towns and massacres hundreds of civilians, that framework goes out the window.

What this likely translates to, diplomatically speaking, is less diplomatic pressure from the US & EU for Israel to show restraint.

Wouldn't be surprised if Netanyahu gets a low-key green light from Washington and Brussells to completely remove Hamas from power & occupy Gaza.

Now what does this mean in Israel? This is clearly an intelligence disaster on par with Yom Kippur 1973. Except that in 1973 the fighting all happened away from major population centers. This was an attack on the civilian populace of the type Israel hasn't seen since 1947-48.

This is the largest attack on civilians in Israeli history. Like the Kfar Etzion massacre in 1948, it will be a graphic symbol for a generation of what would happen were Israel to lose a war.

Will this empower the far-right in Israel? I doubt it. But I expect it will move politics in general even farther to the right.

If 1973 is any indication, this could be career-ending for Netanyahu.

The problem, of course, is that Israel doesn't have any good options to deal with Gaza, which is why successive Israeli governments have been kicking the can down the road and fighting an inconclusive war every 3-5 years in hopes that something will change in the future.

It's abundantly clear now that Hamas was never going to sit around and allow themselves to be progressively isolated.

However, much as Israel is stuck between a rock and a hard place (leave Hamas in power/rule Gaza) so is Hamas.

Aggressive actions build credibility in the Muslim world ("this proves armed resistance is the only way to win concessions")...but decreases sympathy in the West (winning means you're no longer a victim).

Which one matters more? I have no prediction to make here.

END