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As the extent of the massacre at the Music Festival of Peace becomes apparent, lots of analysts seem to have trouble understanding the decision by Hamas to embrace ISIS-style tactics.
I think there's a very clear brutal calculus going on here.
I think there's a very clear brutal calculus going on here.
https://twitter.com/cwjones89/status/1710859792443678927
From Anwar Sadat up to the present, Israeli-Arab decisions towards normalization has always been a triangular calculation recognizing the unlikelihood of military victory over Israel versus the economic benefits of peace with Israel and improved relations with the USA.
Against the slow tide of normalization that began in 1979 and continues to the present, groups like Hamas and Hezbollah have always argued "no, armed struggle can still work, just give us a chance."
But winning is the only thing that makes this argument convincing.
But winning is the only thing that makes this argument convincing.
Tension arises because projecting victimhood - the most successful Palestinian diplomatic strategy - requires *not* winning.
Hamas had to choose one route or the other, and chose to go full ISIS.
Hamas had to choose one route or the other, and chose to go full ISIS.
But how is slaughtering hundreds of civilians winning? Because in simple terms of raw power, they've done something Israel was powerless to stop. They've hurt Israel. That's what matters.
This is the "resistance" that many are euphemistically posting about today.
This is the "resistance" that many are euphemistically posting about today.
Will it provoke a massive Israeli response? Certainly. Will it undermine Palestinian diplomatic standing in the West. Yes. Does this matter? Not as long as Hamas' government in Gaza survives.
Netanyahu's goal was to manage the Gaza conflict at a sustainable level indefinitely. That's now been exposed as impossible.
I see many comments calling this a suicide mission by Hamas.
This is based on the assumption that Hamas will inevitably lose if the IDF embarks on a full invasion of Gaza.
That is not an assumption that should be made.
This is based on the assumption that Hamas will inevitably lose if the IDF embarks on a full invasion of Gaza.
That is not an assumption that should be made.
Hezbollah fought the IDF to a draw in 2006.
Hamas has been steadily increasing its military capabilities, gaining experience from every war.
They have had over a decade and a half to prepare the ground.
New tech such as drones and ATGMs heavily favor the defender.
Hamas has been steadily increasing its military capabilities, gaining experience from every war.
They have had over a decade and a half to prepare the ground.
New tech such as drones and ATGMs heavily favor the defender.
A conventional battlefield victory by Hamas inside Gaza is entirely possible.
I don't think the Hamas leadership would have launched yesterday's attack if they thought otherwise.
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I don't think the Hamas leadership would have launched yesterday's attack if they thought otherwise.
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