Phillip Blond Profile picture
Oct 10 21 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Strategically what do Hamas hope to achieve? Asking this question is inseparable from asking what does Iran hope to achieve? They both abhor a two state solution, neither wants peace with Israel in any form & both want hegemony. Hamas over the Palestinian people, Iran regionally
The ideation that governs both is key and is paramount. Belief is not a secondary factor, it is the prime motivation and the elimination of Israel as an entity and functioning state is the goal. There isn’t a middle ground here. Ideologically the destruction of Israel is the aim
In this the sectarian differences between both can be subsumed - any future conflict across Sunni/Shia lines which will surely re-emerge as it did over Assad in Syria can for now be resolved by the prime aim: the erasure of Israel.
So what do both want - I suspect they both want a long war. To draw all actors into the ‘final solution’ to the Jewish problem. Hamas wants Israel to come into Gaza - where it is by no means clear that Israel will win. Indeed Hamas may fight the IDF to a standstill.
Neither Iran nor Hamas care about the Palestinian civilian population in Gaza. Indeed they are a crucial part of the strategy - projecting victimhood daily on TV screens across the world - they want Israel to bomb & kill women and children as it serves their ends & is their means
A long war in Gaza very quickly becomes globally unpopular, but more important is its local function as a means to ignite a broader front against Israel both on its borders, in the West Bank and in its domestic Arab population.
Iran has been moving to displace Fatah in the West Bank for a long time - fighting in the Ein el-Hilweh refugee camp in Lebanon has seen Fatah officials assassinated by Hezbollah/Iranian backed elements. Iranian weapons and IED technology are being transferred to the West Bank.
In short armed Iranian proxies are already in place in the West Bank fomenting a coming uprising helpfully accelerated by the coming war in Gaza. It would be foolish to assume that something similar is not taking place domestically in Israel among its large (21%) Arab population
Iran has created the conditions for advanced multi-front conflict in Israel & the IDF entering Gaza is the ignition point for such. They judge that the time is right. Citing both Afghanistan & Ukraine, they believe that the US no longer has the will to intervene decisively.
What is particularly worrying is Iran is acting as if it already has nuclear ability and need not fear Israeli retaliation. The immediate trigger however may well have been the political conflicts in Israeli society and the reservists saying they would not serve.
Highly ideological societies tend to tell you exactly what they will do and why. Recall Putin’s long historical essays on Ukraine. In an August 2022 interview posted on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s website, the head of the IRGC, Hossein Salami, spoke quite explicitly
He wrote ‘The outcome of the battle will be determined when the struggle is on the ground, and the brave and experienced people of Hezbollah and Palestine will move on the ground in a single military formation.’
The conditions for this single movement are in place - they only require Israel to enter Gaza and for civilians there to be the public sacrifice for the ignition to take place. The utter brutality of the Hamas incursion was designed to force Israel to attack Gaza
This is the ultimate strategy at play - it serves the interests of Hamas who will hope to rule any Palestinian state that emerges from the conflagration - it serve Iran who will then attain its arc of influence and regional hegemony. But most importantly it will eliminate Israel
I can’t quite make sense of what is happening outside of this scenario - it’s a strategy to wipe israel from the map - which makes all this talk of peace and place at the table and mediate gains utterly superfluous. I fear the moves are as big as this
So what should Israel do? Generally it’s not wise to do what your enemies want - so entering Gaza is an extremely risky endeavour. But Hamas must be defeated and removed from power - but how to do this without a ground war?
Western strategists need to ask what could change the calculation here - the fulcrum point is indeed Iran and perhaps there the only player that could alter the calculus is the United States. But that would entail threatening and possibly delivering a direct confrontation
Israel itself, with its existence under threat could take the fight to Assad or other Iranian proxies but Hezbollah is already primed to invade from the north & the West Bank similarly so. Instead Israel has to act so as not to generate a general emergency within & on its borders
That I’am afraid is where I fear we are - on the brink of a long planned existential conflict, where Israel will be attacked on all fronts and it only needs Israel to pull the trigger for it to begin. The savage murders of children and women was designed to force Israel’s hand
The terror enacted upon innocents had to be so explicit that Netanyahu - famously reluctant to enter Gaza - would have to do so. And Hamas will gather its citizens and people for their sacrifice for their and Iran’s ultimate goal the erasure of the state of Israel
Israel can win a one front war against Hamas. It can contain a two front war against Hezbollah. It might just endure a three front war in the West Bank. It may not survive a four front war with its domestic Arab population. Everything I fear is designed to bring about the latter

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More from @Phillip_Blond

Apr 16, 2021
Broadly speaking I think this is right - the market state is over - people now want solidarity expressed both economically and socially - and that my friends as I have long argued is going left economically and right socially…
Post-liberal societies now want and desperately need an antidote to the fragmentation, inequality and valueless culture that liberalism has advanced. That requires a culture of radical solidarity (it is and can only be social conservatism) coupled with economic communitarianism
That is both culturally and economically we must recover and remake the common compact that binds us - nationalism and populism are but relatively impoverished signifiers of this general trend - we have not yet seen or been offered its ultimate crystallisation but it is coming
Read 7 tweets
Feb 13, 2021
In the bedroom of my mother in a hospice, my little boys said good night over the phone as my Mother passes over, contemplating both ends of finite life & the wrongness of death - playing songs from the sixties for her and the plain chant of human voices that delights heaven
As her student and then her friend my mother nursed the great Gillian Rose during her dying and her death - she said she saw angels around her in the last days - my mother never lied - so I trust they are now also with her in ranks of red and gold song
We have no idea what life is - why then should we assume it ever ceases to exist
Read 8 tweets
Jan 8, 2021
To grasp what is happening in the US one has to appreciate the astonishing violence of American society. I’ve never known a society where the poor are treated with such brutal contempt, were causal resort to violence is so ingrained and where systemic divisions are so deep
The paradox is that the whole legitimation ideology is one of equality and yet the reality is so utterly different. The penalty for not being one of the (relatively few)American winners is so lethal that it is hard for a European to comprehend
The reaction of the American liberal bourgeoisie to their excluded white working class is one of utter incomprehension - an illiterate labelling of all as fascist or supremacist allows yet again, non-engagement with their concerns
Read 6 tweets
Aug 22, 2020
Here in the UK we have a Conservative majority but the intellectual cupboard is bare - we have a few garbled thoughts on big data fused with poorly understood Hayek, and well that’s about it. We are intellectually rudderless which is why we keep crashing into rocks
The virtue of Johnson was that he had debunked the old agenda for his new electorate but where are the ideas and what is the ideology to serve them? What and where are the transformative policies to deliver for the British working class?
What is the new anti-poverty agenda of the right? What exactly will we do at scale to level up? Centralising the dysfunctional parts of a dysfunctional central state will only make matters worse.
Read 6 tweets
May 16, 2020
Thoughts from my interview in @Le_Figaro today… 'Radical analysis doesn’t seem to offer a particularly lucid account of the future, with hard left & hard right thinkers both agreeing the state will become more powerful by normalising the state of exception
Most prosaic reflection suggests the obvious eg 'Revolutions tend to happen when middle class people are as insecure or as unsatisfied as the working class, evidently one effect of Covid will be to restore the middle class need for the state, so mass welfarism is a certainty'
But I doubt this captures the true import of the virus, by contrast I suggest 'all the virus will do is exacerbate the status quo, by which I mean increase the trends already present and already dominant. So is there a political meta-trend in the West that this virus will deepen?
Read 10 tweets
Apr 1, 2020
The failure to support small business owners is perhaps a fatal error in the governments approach - micro businesses with less than 9 employees support 5.6 UK million jobs, yet those business owners are unsupported by either the self employed or furlough offer,
as the majority of these owners pay themselves the most minimal salary through PAYE around £8k a year as their accountants have universally recommended - but now it’s virtually impossible for them to get loans without personal guarantees putting their homes at risk to keep going
and if they self-furlough they get less than Universal Credit - so why would they continue? If pressures mount better for them & their families to just close the business and go onto welfare and what happens then to their furloughed employees? Everyone will end up unemployed
Read 4 tweets

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