Thread by @Phillip_Blond

Strategically what do Hamas hope to achieve? Asking this question is inseparable from asking what does Iran hope to achieve? They both abhor a two state solution, neither wants peace with Israel in any form & both want hegemony. Hamas over the Palestinian people, Iran regionally

The ideation that governs both is key and is paramount. Belief is not a secondary factor, it is the prime motivation and the elimination of Israel as an entity and functioning state is the goal. There isn’t a middle ground here. Ideologically the destruction of Israel is the aim

In this the sectarian differences between both can be subsumed - any future conflict across Sunni/Shia lines which will surely re-emerge as it did over Assad in Syria can for now be resolved by the prime aim: the erasure of Israel.

So what do both want - I suspect they both want a long war. To draw all actors into the ‘final solution’ to the Jewish problem. Hamas wants Israel to come into Gaza - where it is by no means clear that Israel will win. Indeed Hamas may fight the IDF to a standstill.

Neither Iran nor Hamas care about the Palestinian civilian population in Gaza. Indeed they are a crucial part of the strategy - projecting victimhood daily on TV screens across the world - they want Israel to bomb & kill women and children as it serves their ends & is their means

A long war in Gaza very quickly becomes globally unpopular, but more important is its local function as a means to ignite a broader front against Israel both on its borders, in the West Bank and in its domestic Arab population.

Iran has been moving to displace Fatah in the West Bank for a long time - fighting in the Ein el-Hilweh refugee camp in Lebanon has seen Fatah officials assassinated by Hezbollah/Iranian backed elements. Iranian weapons and IED technology are being transferred to the West Bank.

In short armed Iranian proxies are already in place in the West Bank fomenting a coming uprising helpfully accelerated by the coming war in Gaza. It would be foolish to assume that something similar is not taking place domestically in Israel among its large (21%) Arab population

Iran has created the conditions for advanced multi-front conflict in Israel & the IDF entering Gaza is the ignition point for such. They judge that the time is right. Citing both Afghanistan & Ukraine, they believe that the US no longer has the will to intervene decisively.

What is particularly worrying is Iran is acting as if it already has nuclear ability and need not fear Israeli retaliation. The immediate trigger however may well have been the political conflicts in Israeli society and the reservists saying they would not serve.

Highly ideological societies tend to tell you exactly what they will do and why. Recall Putin’s long historical essays on Ukraine. In an August 2022 interview posted on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s website, the head of the IRGC, Hossein Salami, spoke quite explicitly

He wrote ‘The outcome of the battle will be determined when the struggle is on the ground, and the brave and experienced people of Hezbollah and Palestine will move on the ground in a single military formation.’

The conditions for this single movement are in place - they only require Israel to enter Gaza and for civilians there to be the public sacrifice for the ignition to take place. The utter brutality of the Hamas incursion was designed to force Israel to attack Gaza

This is the ultimate strategy at play - it serves the interests of Hamas who will hope to rule any Palestinian state that emerges from the conflagration - it serve Iran who will then attain its arc of influence and regional hegemony. But most importantly it will eliminate Israel

I can’t quite make sense of what is happening outside of this scenario - it’s a strategy to wipe israel from the map - which makes all this talk of peace and place at the table and mediate gains utterly superfluous. I fear the moves are as big as this

So what should Israel do? Generally it’s not wise to do what your enemies want - so entering Gaza is an extremely risky endeavour. But Hamas must be defeated and removed from power - but how to do this without a ground war?

Western strategists need to ask what could change the calculation here - the fulcrum point is indeed Iran and perhaps there the only player that could alter the calculus is the United States. But that would entail threatening and possibly delivering a direct confrontation

Israel itself, with its existence under threat could take the fight to Assad or other Iranian proxies but Hezbollah is already primed to invade from the north & the West Bank similarly so. Instead Israel has to act so as not to generate a general emergency within & on its borders

That I’am afraid is where I fear we are - on the brink of a long planned existential conflict, where Israel will be attacked on all fronts and it only needs Israel to pull the trigger for it to begin. The savage murders of children and women was designed to force Israel’s hand

The terror enacted upon innocents had to be so explicit that Netanyahu - famously reluctant to enter Gaza - would have to do so. And Hamas will gather its citizens and people for their sacrifice for their and Iran’s ultimate goal the erasure of the state of Israel

Israel can win a one front war against Hamas. It can contain a two front war against Hezbollah. It might just endure a three front war in the West Bank. It may not survive a four front war with its domestic Arab population. Everything I fear is designed to bring about the latter