Trevor May Profile picture
Oct 13 19 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
How I would prepare to face Bryce Harper tonight, a thread...
Before I begin, a few things you should know.

1. I designed these reports myself using @TruMediaSports
2. The data represented is Bryce's performance vs. pitches that move like MINE. It's specific for me vs. him.
3. RED is GOOD on Miss Rate and Chase, RED is BAD on NITRO.
3. My fastball is most successful at the top of the zone, generally.
4. My gyro slider performs best at the bottom of the zone, shading to the glove side.
5. My sweeper performs best glove side, generally.
6. My changeup is best down, below, or arm side.
Now, this is how Bryce has fared against ALL RIGHTIES this year. This informs a lot of things, but the gist is that the RED represents where he does the most DAMAGE, an area I call the NITRO ZONE.

(xWOBA is Expected Weighted On-Base Average) Image
From the heat map, I generally see that up and away, up and in, down and in, and a little down, middle might be options that he doesnt handle as well. I then dive in a little bit more with my scouting report.
Below is gus performance, overall, against my pitches this year. OVERALL, hes been VERY GOOD against CH and FB, but SL/SW might be a good option. Now, I get a little more COUNT SPECIFIC to find WHEN I can use each pitch most effectively. Image
The breakdown is as follows: First Pitch, When I am ahead (0-1, 0-2, 1-2), Even (1-1, 2-2, 3-2). and when I am behind (1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 3-1, 3-0). Let's start with first pitch.
Here we can see how he handles each of my pitches in 0-0 counts. I have NITRO and MISS RATE on here because I wasnt to know where his damage is and misses are zero value outcome (you could sub "soft contact" for miss if thats your game). FB up/away, SL for strike seem to be best. Image
Then, I look at when I am ahead. FBs are "ok," but not a great option for a miss If I need it. If I want a miss, I'd take a shot down with the Gyro, as there's more chase/miss where I'm confident I can throw it. CH is best for softer contact, maybe a gb if I can get a chase off. Image
Now that I've estabished where my put away options are, lets look at EVEN counts. Here, we see that he crushes FB mistakes, the miss on SL is gone (though theres not a tone of dmg) and the CH is similar to before. So, options: elevate FF U/A, bounce a SL, get a CH D/A. Image
This is why Bryce is so good. in an even count, there's literally no where in the strike zone that you can count on for soft contact or a miss. You either have to take the risk in the zone (depends on situation) or count on a chase (he doesnt do that much).
In an even count, I'd only count on a miss in a big spot where he could cash in more than just himself on a mistake. So then, what if I get behind?
So, finally, the CH opens up a bit because hitters makes sure they're crushing the FB when the pitchers behind. So there's two good options, and one ok one. I would lean on FB U/I (he sees fastball, goes to juice it but cant handle it as well close to him) or a CH down (+miss). Image
Slider needs to get in and the margin for error is small, but if Im feeling good about either version, I may take a shot.
So I have my insights, so I make a plan. Lets assume no one is on base for the sake of ease.

Id most likely start with a SL down. IF a ball, I'd most likely go FB U/I, but if I feel really good about the CH that day, its there. IF a strike, Im doing it again.
Im reserving CH for 2-0 and 3-1 counts, as I can count on a take on a close one and lower chance of damage on a mistake. If I am ahead and have the oportunity for a strike out or poor contact, Id go with a FB U/A or a SL D/I.
That was a pretty simplified version, but hopefully it made enough sense to follow. Bryce is a great example of someone without a true "hole" in his swing. It then becomes even more important to take the lower risk route, especially with men on base.
Thats why he's so good in the playoffs. There tends to be more mistakes because of the pressure, especially when youre the away team in philly. Cant wait to watch this one.
Questions? Hit me with them. I'll do my best to answer them.

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