Thread by @JonathanJWalsh

Moneyball gets thrown around a lot in AFL circles these days. Rarely is it properly understood, with the focus on ‘money’ rather than ‘ball’.

I first read Michael Lewis’ book when it was thrown on my desk whilst I was working at Essendon.

At the heart of Bill James’ theory (a stats and data nerd that probably got picked last at school), was that the game was obsessed with outdated measurements.

His theory was that if you got players on base more often, you’d score more…

runs and that would lead to more wins.

For the A’s they couldn’t compete with the likes of the Yankees when it did come to money. That matters less in AFL. We all have the same salary cap.

So much focus is on Points For & Points Against in AFL. Wins and Losses.

With scant regard of how to get there.

I think there’s a fair bit of Moneyball theory in how Essendon has gone about this Free Agency & Trade period.

McKay & Gresham have come on big contracts. Duursma won’t come cheap either. But cash is the resource we do have.

Tradable assets we don’t have. With the exception of BZT, who we are attempting to turn into an asset that fits a defined need (I’ll get to the Moneyball theory in a sec, context first).

I’m making an assumption here. Goldstein comes to fill a need with Phillips leaving.

McKay, Gresham & Duursma all help in very specific areas that address real weaknesses in our game.

None are stars of the comp, they do have upside. The assumption is all three will have front ended deals to we meet our cap requirements in 2024.

Shiel & Stringer come out of contract next year, freeing up cap space, along with the above mentioned on lesser money in 2025 than 2024.

I expect that’s when we will target genuine star power in Free Agency to take our list build to the next level.

For now. It’s addressing weaknesses, with experienced players (with upside), without giving up draft capital so we can bring in another talented 18 year old early (ish) in the draft.

Back to Moneyball. Let’s start with our new key defender.

Essendon ranked 15th for Intercept Differential in 2023.

What does that mean? It means we weren’t very good at disrupting the opposition’s ball movement and winning the ball back.

Ben McKay is ranked Elite for Intercept Marks. #1 Ranked Key Defender.

Needless to say, the more often you can win the ball back off the opposition, the better your chances of reducing opposition scores and scoring yourself.

Sure, he will help on the big, monster forwards that have troubled us for years. But it’s his intercept marking and…

partnership with Ridley that should have us excited.

Jade Gresham. Essendon ranked 17th for Ground Balls in 2023. 12th for F50 Ground Balls (whilst being 12th for F50 Marks).

Our ability to win the ball at Ground Level post clearance was poor. We did it 6 times…

less per game than the AFL Average.

As was our ability to win Ground Balls in our F50.

Jade Gresham is exceptional at working between the arcs and getting back Inside 50.

It’s why he was ranked Elite among forwards for Ground Ball Gets & 13th in the AFL for F50 GBG in 2023.

Ground Ball Gets aid ball retention, it creates stoppages, it slows down opposition ball movement. It helps you stop opposition scoring, it helps you to score yourself.

Then there is Xavier Duursma. Not an Essendon player yet, but here’s what he’s exceptional at.

He’s exceptional at closing space when his team doesn’t have the ball. He’s exceptional at getting into D50.

He’s exceptional at creating space when his team does have the ball.

He’s an elite runner. We don’t have those.

He came back into Port’s side in Round 18.

Played the last 9 games. In 5 of those he was in the Top 5 players on the ground for KM’s covered.

Twice he was number one ranked on the ground, one other he was team high.

None of these players are superstars. They all do something exceptionally well that we lack.

It may just help turn 2-3 of those 18 point or less losses into wins.

It will add depth to our squad and provide competition for spots.

We’ll do it without giving away our first pick.

And we’ll do it (because we haven’t added CBA increases into players deals) without…

jeapordising our ability get high-end talent in the next 2 years.

In the past I’ve felt we’ve had a talent strategy, not a list strategy. We’ve procured talent for talents sake with little regard for how the pieces connect.

This feels like the start of a grown up list strategy.

Whoops. Forgot the hashtags.

#DonTheStat | #GoDons

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And thanks to @AnthProc & @mike_read_ who helped me with some of the data referenced in this 🤝

Give them a follow if you’re not already.