Thread by @joshtpm

I have no ability to evaluate grainy videos and what different blast patterns look like. But I’ve spent several years developing lists of open source intelligence and forensic analysts who are consistently credible. That doesn’t mean they’re always right. But by credible …

2/ in this case I mean analysts who are highly knowledgeable in one of the relevant domains and use an empirical framework for analyzing videos, open source data etc. A lot of these come out of the Bellingcat world, others have grown out of the Syrian and Ukraine conflicts.

3/ I watched this group closely overnight as more videos and data came out and from what I can tell not one of these thinks the evidence points to an Israeli bomb as the source of the blast at the hospital in Gaza. To be clear, they’re not at all saying it’s open and shut.

4/ In fact I’m not sure any are saying it’s open and shut. That’s a high standard. But I think every one is saying the evidence points to some version of a failed rocket launch from within Gaza. And this with varying degrees of certainty. What I’ve also seen this morning …

5/ are a lot of questions about whether the blast was as large as originally reported and whether the fatality counts were really in the magnitude originally claimed. Unlike the ‘who did this’ question, the verdict in this case is less clear. It’s more that with daylight …

6/ photos many of the same people are saying it doesn’t quite add up. It’s worth noting that there were very large and very round numbers circulated almost immediately yesterday afternoon (US time) vastly faster than it would ever be possible to actually count numbers …

7/ of dead and wounded. Final points: this isn’t a booyah conclusion. Thousands of people have died in Gaza during this war. But this, as best I can tell, is what the people who have a proven track record of credibility in those earlier conflicts (as opposed to people…

8/ popping up in algos) seem to be saying as of this morning.