Thread by @SwordMercury

Alright, this is a pretty complicated question so the answer will have to be fairly long. Thread-length, actually. Let's start with where Israel is at, tactically and strategically.🧵🇮🇱 🇵🇸

https://twitter.com/Vigilant27/status/1715403681481560238

Right now, the Israeli politican system is deeply dysfunctional and in mental crisis mode. The Hamas operation inflicted more casualties on Israelis than it suffered in previous Wars, meaning that Israel's status quo - settler state in conflict with the natives - is looking grim.

Note: by settler state I am not making a moral judgement. I am not saying the problem is that Israel is "evil" or "bad", or whatever. This is a mere statement of fact.

Sweden does not have "settlers". It does not have "settlements". Normal countries don't have these things.

Israel, in order to exist, needs to be able to militarily overpower or at least deter "the natives". Hamas destroyed that deterrence, and put a huge question mark over whether the IDF is strong enough to actually overpower Israel's enemies.

All this means that the #1 demand placed on Netanyahu right now is to re-establish the feeling of Israeli invincibility, or at least massive superiority. "Destroying" Hamas (whatever this means in practice is very much in doubt) is a national and *psychological* imperative.

Now, with all that said: Israel is at a point where it cannot really invade the Gaza strip without suffering potentially catastrophic losses and further illustrating the weaknesses of the IDF. Urban combat in ruins is a nightmare, and IDF reservists do not train for this.

Also, the problem here is that Israel's northern front is massively exposed, and the country is slowly being bled dry of expensive interceptor missiles for the "Iron Dome." Once these missiles run out, the country is basically a sitting duck.

All of this places Israel in a position very close to check mate. It cannot attack, because to do so is to expose itself on two fronts. It cannot not attack, because to not attack would be to embrace the reality that America's "Rhodesia" can no longer win against the natives.

The Israeli "strategy" right now is thus one of strategic and tactical paralysis. The assault into Gaza keeps being extended and postponed, while Israel is trying very hard to prevent food shipments from reaching the Gaza strip. They clearly intend to starve the population.

Unfortunately, this is national suicide. Hamas aren't gonna be starved: if they can store 5000 rockets in their tunnel network, they can store water and food, way past the point where all the civilians have starved to death. Thus to starve Hamas, you would have to kill millions.

Obviously, the plan from the start was *still* to starve Hamas. This is why American diplomatic efforts in the region have been so laser-focused on trying to get Egyptians - or *anyone else* to take in the entire population of Gaza.

If Gaza could be emptied of civilians, then you could starve out Hamas without murdering a million children. But all of the states surrounding Israel have categorically rejected this. Egypt in particular has said that attempts to ethnically cleanse Gaza will lead to war.

In theory, you could resettle these Palestinians in Europe, but the mere suggestion of this would instantly implode any sort of residual support for Israel that exists in Europe. It'd be political and economic suicide.

So, now we have the basic situation: Israel has to attack, but it doesn't think it can win. It also doesn't think it can survive not attacking. It's preferred strategy, starvation, cannot work without triggering a massive genocide, because civilian displacement is a non-starter.

Here's what I think will happen as a result: the IDF and the Israeli government will simply wallow in strategic paralysis until their hand is forced. They'll keep denying aid shipments, not because it's a workable strategy, but because letting them in is an admission of defeat.

All this talk about "the food will be eaten by Hamas" is a sideshow. Hamas has food to eat, they planned this operation for at least a year. But if you allow in food, you basically admit that they will *never* starve and that you totally lack a plan.

All in all, because Israel can't come to a decision - it can't go forward, nor can it go back - it will keep standing in place while the civilian death toll spikes. This will in turn force some sort of intervention from its neighboring countries, starting with lebanon and Syria.

Moreover, the longer this goes on, the more support Israel is bleeding. But this isn't like Operation Cast Lead or Protective Edge, where Israel can simply go back to the status quo. The status quo was maintained by IDF deterrence and IDF superiority, two things which are dead.