The Kaipullai Profile picture
Oct 27 8 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
My Favourite IPO MamaEarth is back.

Last time they wanted a Rs 24,000 cr valuation for having a profit of 24 cr.

This time around they have made a net loss of Rs 151 cr.

So they are being very very reasonable now.

They are only asking for a Valuation of Rs 10,500 cr.
Let's see what a Rs 10,500 cr company looks like, and compare it to MamaEarth.

Vardhman textiles Market cap is similar to what MamaEarth values itself

Their Annual Revenue is 10,317 cr.
MamaEarth is 1/10th of that.

Their net profit is Rs 764 cr
MamaEarth's made a loss
Vardhman has reserves of Rs 3000 and Fixed assets of Rs 4000 cr.

MamaEarth outsources Its entire Manufacturing.

Vardhman's promoter owns 64%

MamaEarth promoter holding is 34%

And then there is this
The promoter's current stock holding is Rs 10 cr Shares

He is selling 3 cr shares in this IPO worth Rs 103 cr, Which is close to 30% of his stock holding

Then there is a question of sales

MamaEarth says they are a D2C company.

But they majorly sell thru Amazon and Flipkart
This means they will always have margin pressure and dependency.

Which is not good for a consumer brand.

And then there is the question of popularity of the brand.

For that you can do a small test.

Ask 6 people around you if they use MamaEarth products.
The answer to that question is also the answer to the question on whether this is a genuine IPO or a PP Waterballs type cash grab IPO?

P:S: In 2020 MamaEarth was valued at Rs 2000 Cr.

What miracles Have they done that their valuation has quintupled in 3 years?
But if you look at it another way, Mamaearth sought a value of Rs 24000 cr when they planned an IPO at the beginning of 2023.

10 months later, they are seeking half that value

Now, What internal disaster has happened that they have cut their own value by half in that time?
Now for the ultimate question

Ghazal Alagh Was on Shark Tank

If a company comes to her, with a 151 cr loss, heavily dependant on Amazon, with no manufacturing facilities and values itself at Rs 10,000 cr, will she invest?

Or say "I am out"?

Which is what we should also say.

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More from @thekaipullai

Oct 29
Everyone is doing a lot of analysis on Jio Financial and how they have everything to conquer the market.

But most analysis have missed the most deadly arrow in Jio Financial's quiver.

Tally.

The data and information Tally has on small businesses, all other NBFCs can only dream
Tally has the exact payment details of most Indian small businesses. Their sales. Their recievables. Their payment history. Their credit worthiness. Their payment cycles. Their overdues. Their payback time.

Basically everything that you need to determine the worth of a party.
To understand How much you can lend? What is the risk? Will you get the money back? Etc.

The biggest concern for all NBFCs with small businesses is the risk of bad debt and write off. And that risk is magnified because of absence of data.

Jio Financial has access to that data.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 28
Usually, it is very difficult for one person to single handedly influence billions of people.

And if someone does that, chances are most of us will know about him.

This thread is about one such person. But in all probability, you know nothing about him.

Intrigued, Read on.
The beginning of the 20th Century was also the beginning of what we call, the age of the consumer

Technology had progressed big time leading to lots of things being made by different companies, quickly and efficiently.

And more importantly, people now had money to buy them.
But all these companies had one burning question.

How to sell these things to our people?

Some smart people will say, "Dumb idiots, Why didn't they just advertise?".

Well they did.

But not in the way you imagine.

Ads those days were very functional and basic.
Read 22 tweets
Oct 27
Thanks to @ashwinidamani for the insight.

It wouldn't be right for me to compare Vardhman textiles and MamaEarth.

They are too different Industries to be compared. Let's compare them with someone in the same sector and in a way competitors

Jyothy Laboratories.
Jyothy Labs is valued at Rs 13,500 cr.
MamaEarth is seeking a 10,500 cr

Sales
Jyothy Labs - Rs 2500 cr
MamaEarth - Rs 1400 cr

Profit
Jyothy Labs - Rs 239 cr
MamaEarth - Are you kidding?

Distribution

Jyothy Labs - 3000 Distributors & 25 lakh outlets
MamaEarth - Non Existent
Manufacturing

Jyothy Labs - 28 plants
MamaEarth - Nada

Known Brands

Jyothy Labs - At least 10
MamEarth - Now you are making me look bad.

Channel

Jyothy Labs - Distributor, Wholesaler, retailer, Online, Offline
MamaEarth - Amazon or Inshallah
Read 5 tweets
Oct 3
As someone said, we are defined by the battles we fight. It is what makes a person legendary.

MS Swaminathan decided to fight hunger and starvation.

But what very few of us know, that he had an ally in this fight

His name was Norman Borlaug.

And this is his legendary story
And like many great stories, this one begins with failure.

When Norman Borlaug applied for admission to the University of Minnesota, he was rejected.

But that year, to India's great fortune, they opened a new school to which he was sent.

It was the school of Agriculture.
Norman started making a great name for himself, not only as a student but also as a Wrestler.

He was one of the best wrestlers in Minnesota, consistently pinning opponents to the ground.

Little did anyone know, that he would also go on to pin global hunger to the mat
Read 20 tweets
Oct 2
Imagine you are the PM of a 17-year-old country which was born in bloodshed and fire.

And the person you are taking over from was a megalomaniac of a PM, who repeatedly put his personal biases over national interest.

And thanks to his disastrous policies
The coffers are empty. The country doesn't have food and are getting by on weed infested wheat rejected by the animals of the western world.

There's no industry. Economy is in shit. We have no money. And nobody wants to help us.

Because our Foreign policy is in tatters.
We have no international friends.

And we have just been devastatingly defeated by a treacherous Neighbour, whom your predecessor made us believe that they were our best friends.

Our Armed forces are totally demoralized.

And then there is our other nuisance Pakistan.
Read 10 tweets
Sep 30
Two days ago, one of the greatest Indians in the history of India, passed away.

And most of us didn't notice. Which is very sad.

Because this guy is the greatest, not only in India from 1947 but our whole 5000 year old civilization

He is MS Swaminathan.

And this is his story
The food situation in India in the early 1960s was absolutely pathetic. Indian food production had dropped continously and reached the nadir in 1965 At 72 mil tonnes

The situation was so bad that a team of US Scientists predicted death of millions, due to starvation. in the 70s
We were entirely dependent on the US for food. Not imports that we paid for.

We begged to throw some food at us. Which they did.

The program was called PL 480

Under PL 480, we got little rice. And the wheat they supplied, as someone put it, "wasn't fit for pigs"
Read 13 tweets

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