Per my conversations with two US officials, this is how we should understand the last 7 hours:
Today’s barrage of intensified Israeli strikes ahead of an imminent ground invasion - coupled with US calling again for a humanitarian pause - was a negotiating tool to push for hostage releases.
Basically, one last big push to get hostages out before ground invasion begins.
As of this AM, Israel’s plan was to send a division into Gaza as strikes intensified– beginning around noon eastern.
For the last several hours, Israel held off large-scale ground offensive, instead sending more limited force as US stepped up calls for pause to get hostages out.
This was designed to allow one last chance for Hamas to be convinced that now is the time to trade // seriously discuss concessions.
As of now, there is no progress on hostage discussions to announce.
That said, this time did allow for Israel to learn more about the environment, gather intel, as they prepare to do more.
I asked about ABC report that US/Israeli officials have indicated tonight’s ground incursion is not a large-scale offensive – and if that is an indication the pressure plan is working...
...The response didn’t directly answer the question, but I’m told Israel “has heard our concerns” – ie. about the need to take every possible step to mitigate civilian casualties.
The US continues to express support for humanitarian pauses if hostage releases would be successful.
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🧵On the claim from some Republicans like Nancy Mace that the budget deal “expands government welfare” – @RepMolinaroNY19 tells me “NOT TRUE”. He explains it this way, adding that he ran this system for 12 years at the County executive level:
CBO assumes all new exemptions are new recipients – but in most cases they are already in the system, especially in blue states like NY.
This issue primarily relates to two groups of people: chronically homeless who are already in the system (and often don’t want to be in the system, because they avoid that kind of activity) and able-bodied veterans under 55.
Debt limit vote count thread: Right now, each side is fighting the perception that their leader (Biden for Dems or McCarthy for R’s) didn't negotiate a good enough deal – so there’s an ongoing effort to step up the vote count on each side, even beyond the votes necessary to pass.
On the GOP side, if more Dems support the bill than R's on the floor, McCarthy may face a motion to vacate from conservatives on his right flank, already upset that the bill didn’t go far enough.
Rep. Dan Bishop said “it’s inescapable to him” that a motion to vacate would not happen, but depends on whether his colleagues “have the courage”.
Debt limit update ahead of Biden/McCarthy meeting:
-WH offered 2023 baseline with 0% increase for 2024, then 1% for 2025. WH wants 2 yr-caps
-GOP wants FY 2022 levels, 1% increase per year with 10 yrs of caps
- possible compromise being floated: FY 2022, adjusted for inflation
- both sides interested in reigning in pharmacy benefit managers
- WH proposed closing the carried interest loophole - which would not violate McCarthy's pledge not to raise taxes.
*GOP took this off the table, I'm told
- disputes continue over GOP push to add work requirements to some welfare programs
- WH does not want to erode Biden signature legislation, Inflation Reduction Act // climate pieces
NEWS: Starting at 12:01am ET on January 5th, all air passengers 2 yr + traveling from China will be required to test negative for COVID no more than 2 days before their departure from China, Hong Kong, Macau- regardless of nationality and vaccination status.
This also applies to people traveling through the US who may only be here for a connecting flight.
In addition, people traveling through Incheon International Airport, Toronto Pearson International Airport and Vancouver International Airport and to the US --
-- will be required to provide a negative test no more than 2 days before departure if they've been in the PRC in the last 10 days. That is "due to the current volume of passengers from the PRC" transiting through those three airports.
🧵🚨THREAD AHEAD: State of play in the House speaker's race - first House Dem signals openness to voting for a GOP candidate, as McCarthy allies warn of what that would look like:
As anti-McCarthy dissenters grow vocal about their intention to deny House GOP Speaker-designate Kevin McCarthy the speaker’s gavel, Republicans in his camp are warning of what concessions could lead to Democrats voting for a “unity candidate” – like a pledge not to impeach…
…Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas or repeal Biden legislation, equal subpoena authority, or negotiations on how committees are structured and how many members are on them.