Thread by @Mattl8241

Gather around for a logistics thread everyone, today we will discuss the logistical needs of the Russian army around Avdiivka, Donetsk. I will cover the big three logistical commodities, Ammunition, Fuel, and water. As these are the biggest enablers to allow an army to fight.

To understand my numbers, and to simplify the averages I use the following standard vehicles to calculate logistical needs. Tanks I use the T72 which is a happy medium especially for fuel consumption at 1200L for 1100L for a T80 and 1600L for a T90. AFV's I use the BMP2.

Howitzers I go off the D-30 for towed, and the 2S19,and the BM-21 for rocket artillery. For logistical needs I go off of the KAMAZ-5350 with a 6T capacity and its fuel truck version with a 7T capacity.

The information on unit's on this front is based on @UAControlMap map's, which full disclaimer, even they admit this list isn't complete. However there are right now 35 known units around Avdiivka.

These a broken down to 4 Artillery brigades, 7 motor rifle brigades, 1 marine brigade, 12 motor rifle regiments, 2 tank regiments, 6 Rifle/motor battalions, and 1 recce battalion.

Based on known open source data of Russian TO&E/ORBAT's this is roughly 67,501 troops, 1,089 tanks, 4,504 AFV's, 468 towed howitzers, 422 SP-Howitzers, and 158 MRLS.

Water: this is the easiest stat, using NATO standard practice of 20L of water per person, per day to cover drinking, cooking, bathing etc. 67,501 would require 1,350.02 tons of water per day.

This number can fluctuate based on how often one does personal hygiene routine on the battlefield and if one is heating rations vs receiving a hot meal from a kitchen.

Ammunition: A full combat load of a T72 is 39 rounds, at 33Kg per round for APFSDS, a full combat load would be 1,287kg per tank. So in order to fully stock 1,089 tanks, you will need 1,401.54 Tons of 125mm ammunition per every 1-3 days.

Fuel wise, at 1,200L, all tanks in this AO would require 1.3m L of fuel delivered to keep all tanks fueled up.

AFV's, a BMP2 carried 160rds of AP, and 340rds of HE, total weight 191.06Kg, for a total weight of all 4,504 vehicles of 860.53 Tons. Fuel required is 426L per vehicle, or 2.08m L for all vehicles.

Towed howitzers. I do not include the towing vehicle for these calculations. A single D-30 may carry as many as 200 rounds or more per day. For ease I will keep it at 200rds HE which weigh 4,360Kg per gun. For 468 guns that is 2,040.48 Tons of 122mm HE.

SPG: A 2S19 is based of an extended hull T80 chassis, roughly 1100-1200L internal capacity for fuel. This would mean at the high end 422 SPGs need 506,400L of fuel.

Each 2S19 Carries 50 rounds of 152, at 81kg each that is 4,050kg of ammo per gun, or 1,704.88 tons for all 422 guns.

BM21 is used because a BM27 and BM 30 are divisional and corp level arty assets and wouldn't be in these units. Each vehicle needs 365L of fuel, and 40 rockets, which each weight an average of 70kg (sources gave me anywhere from 66 to 76kg, so call it an even 70)

40 rockets would thus equal 2,800Kg of rockets per vehicle. Meaning all 158 vehicles would require 442.4 tons of rockets.

All of this turns into a total ammunition tonnage of 6,605.08 tons, and a total fuel requirement of 3.95m Liters of fuel, or 3,319.44 tons. To convert liters to kg for diesel you times it by 0.84.

As mentioned at the beginning of the thread a KAMAZ-5350 6x6 can carry 6T, and a ATZ-5350 can carry 7T of fuel. This is the happy median where a KAMAZ4350 carries 4T, and a 6350 can take 12T.

In order to carry 6,605.08T of ammunition you would need 1,100.84 truck loads using a 5350 every 1-3 days. For a total fuel requirement of 3,319.44T, you would need 474.2 ATZ-5350 trips.

Does this mean there are 1,575 trucks heading into the Avdiivka AO every day? no, convoys would be staggered, and likely resupplying multiple units and multiple trips per day. Meaning there is likely a 1/4 of this or 393 trucks making the rounds from logistical support units.

These would also primarily be done at night to avoid detection by Ukrainian forces, but not always as we have seen in the past. Sometimes this could be an emergency reply of forces.

Logistics is the rarely seen, and talked about part of war, but it is just as important since most units only have 3 days of supply, so if these convoys are interdicted, the problems of any one unit can start piling up.

or if logistical units do not get their needs met by depot, then that trickles down to front line units not getting everything they need.

In conclusion I hope this helps you all understand the amount of supplies Russia needs to throw into it's main offensive in Avdiivka at the moment in order to keep the battle going, and how if Ukraine can interdict this, it can spell trouble very quickly, as it did in Kherson.

Missing number: 155.25T of small arms ammunition based off 2.3kg per person (10 mags)