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David Sacks Profile picture
@DavidSacks
Nov 4 • 6 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Another remarkable confessional by the MSM in which we learn that everything we were told over the last 5 months about Ukraine making progress in its Counteroffensive was a lie.
“Stalemate” has replaced “Counteroffensive” as the main media narrative about the war. But it is not accurate. Ukraine is *losing* a war of attrition. This is why officials believe they only have until the end of the year before “urgent discussions” are necessary. Image
One of the main reasons for this is that Ukraine has not been able to impose significant attrition on the Russian side, even as its own casualties have been horrific. Russian casualties have actually been trending down for months.
Professor Mearsheimer explained in May why Russia would win a war of attrition. When I posted a summary of his views, it was met with an outpouring of vituperative anger and disbelief. Yet everything that’s happened over the past 5 months has confirmed his analysis.
From CNN today: Zelensky is openly criticizing his top general Zaluzhny for calling the war a stalemate.
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It’s worth pointing out that Zaluzhny is spinning too. The war is not a stalemate; Ukraine is losing a war of attrition. But at least his take is plausible-sounding, whereas Zelensky refuses to update his script at all.

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More from @DavidSacks

David Sacks Profile picture
Oct 31
The average age of a soldier in the US military is 23. In Ukraine it’s 43. Think about what that means. For every 23 year-old remaining, Ukraine would need a 63 year-old or two 53 year-olds just to maintain the average. An entire generation of young people has been wiped out.
According to TIME, the shortage of personnel has become even more dire than the deficit in arms and ammunition. One of Zelensky’s close aides says that even if the U.S. and its allies come through with all the weapons they have pledged, “we don’t have the men to use them.” Image
Yet a delusional Ukrainian political leadership orders the military to take new towns. With what? comes back the word from the front. Image
Read 7 tweets
David Sacks Profile picture
Jul 22
I suspect most establishment politicians looking at the Joe & Hunter Biden arrangement are quietly thinking “Wow this was really brazen. I can get away with a lot more than I thought.”
This has been going on a long time. Obama aids were forced to defend their VP pick back in 2008. Image
Even at the time that Hunter Biden joined the board of Burisma in 2014, “The arrangement raised questions about the propriety of his appointment.”
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Read 4 tweets
David Sacks Profile picture
Jul 17
Nice try. The expert class touted the upcoming counteroffensive for months, crowing about the benefits of “combined arms operations” and “maneuver warfare” and promising to “punch through” quickly. For example:
Just days before it began, Petraeus said the counteroffensive would be “very impressive” with progress after 3-4 days.
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Another media favorite, former general Ben Hodges, gave many interviews predicting the success of the counteroffensive, claiming it would easily break through and sever the land bridge to Crimea.
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Read 4 tweets
David Sacks Profile picture
Jul 10
Wait what
Previously:



Previously:





Read 5 tweets
David Sacks Profile picture
Jul 2
Zaluzhny says current plans are not feasible, and simple math indicates why: Ukraine has recaptured ~50 square miles at a cost of over 10,000 lives. Since Russia occupies 50,000 sq miles (1000x), at this rate it will cost Ukraine 10,000,000 lives to liberate the entire country.
It’s worth pointing out that the 50 sq miles, obtained at a cost of 200+ lives per mile, are in the security (or “grey”) zone. Ukrainian forces have not even made it to the Russians’ first fortified line yet.
So it will cost a lot more more to punch through those lines (though if they do, territorial gains gains could be higher too).
Read 10 tweets
David Sacks Profile picture
Jun 19
THE FAILING COUNTEROFFENSIVE AND THE PEACE THAT COULD HAVE BEEN

With each passing day, it’s becoming clear that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is failing to achieve any of its originally stated objectives. Recall: the Biden administration’s bet was that the counteroffensive would roll back Russian territorial gains, cut the land bridge to Crimea, and force Russia to the negotiating table. That is almost certainly not going to happen. On the contrary, a stalemate is more likely, or even that Russia will take more territory and win the war, as Mearsheimer has predicted.

What are Biden’s options now? Either escalate or admit defeat. In preparation for NATO’s Vilnius Summit, Blinken has been floating a proposal to give “Israel status” to Ukraine. This means multi-year security guarantees including weapons, ammunition and money that would continue even if Biden loses the next election.

This is not what the American people signed up for. Many Americans supported the $100+ billion in appropriations for Ukraine believing it was a one-time deal to reverse Russian territorial gains. If they had been told that it was the basis for an annual appropriation in a new Forever War, they would have preferred an alternative, especially if they had known that one was available.

THE PEACE THAT COULD HAVE BEEN

New evidence is emerging that a peace deal was achievable at the beginning of the war. At a recent meeting with the African delegation, Putin showed the draft of an outline or preliminary agreement signed by the Ukrainian delegation at Istanbul in April 2022. It provided that Russia would pull back to pre-war lines if Ukraine would agree not to join NATO (but Ukraine could receive security guarantees from the West).

This document has not been publicly released yet, but no one seriously contests that it exists. The only dispute is over what happened subsequently; Ukraine (via reporting in Reuters) contends the deal fell apart. However, the availability of a deal based on Ukrainian Neutrality is consistent with previous comments from Naftali Bennett, who said a deal was attainable but rejected by the West.

Why would the West do this? Ukrainska Pravda (UP), a pro-Ukraine publication, reported in May 2022:

“As soon as the Ukrainian negotiators and Abramovich/Medinsky [the Russian negotiators], following the outcome of Istanbul, had agreed on the structure of a future possible agreement in general terms, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson appeared in Kyiv almost without warning. "Johnson brought two simple messages to Kyiv. The first is that Putin is a war criminal; he should be pressured, not negotiated with. And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not. We can sign (an agreement) with you (Ukraine), but not with him. Anyway, he will screw everyone over", is how one of Zelenskyy's close associates summed up the essence of Johnson's visit.”


Johnson (who must have been speaking not just for himself but for the Western alliance) wanted to pressure Putin, not make peace, and promised new weapons systems if Ukraine would keep fighting.

At the time of UP’s article, Ukraine appeared to be doing well, so UP portrayed Zelensky’s decision to accept Johnson’s offer as a smart gamble. Now, in hindsight, it looks like a disaster.

AFGHANISTAN REDUX?

I know some of you may find it hard to believe that the realities on the ground are so at odds with the mainstream media's coverage. But it’s worth recalling that the American public was assured for two decades that we were winning in Afghanistan. All of that reporting was revealed as a pack of lies when the Afghan army that we were supposedly “standing up” collapsed within a matter of weeks. At that point, the media stopped reporting on Afghanistan, just like it had stopped reporting on Iraq, instead of holding anyone accountable.

Unfortunately, it looks like we're headed for a similar kind of outcome in Ukraine. The only question is when, and how long Biden will be able to perpetuate a proxy war of choice that could have easily been avoided.
Update: in an interview with WashPo, Ukraine’s top general Zaluzhny confirms that the Western equipment provided so far (at a cost of $100B+) is insufficient to achieve the originally stated goals of the counteroffensive: “these plans are not feasible at all.” Image
CONFIRMED: Failing Counteroffensive.
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Read 9 tweets

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