In August of 2022, Turkey and Israel re-normalized diplomatic relations after nearly 12 years of tension.
This came shortly after Turkey re normalized relations with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE
The core motivator for re normalization with the Arab states was a need to stabilize the Turkish economy, reduce inflation of the Lyra, and bring in new investments.
With Israel, however, Turkey has bigger plans.
For years, Turkey has been seeking to modernize its Air Force. Their plan was to purchase the F-35 Lightning II. This would have been a multi billion dollar purchase.
But after Turkey ordered an advanced Russian air defense S-400 battery, the U.S. decided to ban the sale of F-35s.
The S-400, used to track and shoot down attacking aircraft, was seen as a threat to the F-35 joint strike fighter program adopted in several NATO countries.
The decision left Turkey with an air force in need of rejuvenation. Turkeys current F-16 fleet are block 30/40/50 models. These are outdated and some block 30 models may need to be sidelined entirely.
Since the US wouldnโt sell Turkey the F-35, they decided instead to order 40 new F-16s block 70 models to at least carry them through the decade. They also ordered 80 modernization kits to upgrade their older F-16s.
But this purchase was also frozen by the U.S.
When Sweden needed Turkeys vote to join NATO this past summer, Biden suggested he would green light the F-16 purchase in exchange for Swedish membership in NATO.
Turkeys vote for Swedish membership in NATO did result in the approval of modernization kits.
But the 40 new F-16s are still in limbo.
So Turkey normalized relationships with Israel with the same hopes as the UAE:
What happened today at Columbia was a victory for the movement
With every move, the Zionists continue to expose themselves for all the world to see
They are using spoons to empty out a sinking ship
Keep in mind that the students were calling on the university to sanction Israel by divesting from corporations complicit in the occupation, apartheid and genocide of Palestinians
If Israel and Iran bump heads again in the coming weeks or months, the Israelis may use their air launched ballistic missiles.
They allegedly used this several months ago when they attacked Iran.
Instead of launching ballistic missiles from their own territory, they fly large bomber planes or fighter jets to the periphery of Irans territory and drop a ballistic from there.
After drop, the missile fires off up into the horizon like a proper ballistic and then comes straight down to precisely hit its target.
This doesnโt necessarily give Israel an edge. Itโs just a different way to deliver a strike.
Hereโs where the war currently stands and where it might be heading next
Letโs start by remembering what each party wants
Hezb has declared that they want a ceasefire and an end to the genocide in Gaza
Israel wants Hezbollah to change these conditions for ceasefire, negotiate separately from Gaza, and retreat behind the Litani River.
Israel is asking Hezbollah to do something it cannot reasonably do without appearing weak
They canโt appear to be abandoning the people of Gaza nor can they go back on what they have clearly stated as an immovable objective : end the genocide
And retreating behind the Litani River would destroy Hezb reputation as a formidable force, tantamount to suicide.
Israel on the other hand can end the genocide without appearing weak. Gaza is completely destroyed. Thousands have left Gaza and tens of thousands , if not hundreds of thousands, have been killed.
So there is a way for Israel to declare success, no matter how grotesque it would be, in Gaza.
They wanted revenge for Oct 7th. They got it.
But Israel wonโt do this. The ball is in their court. They have now moved beyond the initial objectives of destroying Gaza, โfreeing the hostagesโ, and taking revenge for Oct 7th.
Israel kicked into war time gear a year ago. Justifying the human and financial capital for this isnโt easy. It isnโt often that your population is ready and willing to deal with the inconvenience of war.
So Israel has decided to extend this war as long as possible to maximize the potential benefits.
Hezbollah has served as a legitimate threat to Israeli interests for decades.