Thread by @propandco

𝗧𝘂𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗹𝗸𝘀 𝘁𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀𝗿𝗮𝗲𝗹 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝘆 🧵

In August of 2022, Turkey and Israel re-normalized diplomatic relations after nearly 12 years of tension.

This came shortly after Turkey re normalized relations with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE

The core motivator for re normalization with the Arab states was a need to stabilize the Turkish economy, reduce inflation of the Lyra, and bring in new investments.

With Israel, however, Turkey has bigger plans.

For years, Turkey has been seeking to modernize its Air Force. Their plan was to purchase the F-35 Lightning II. This would have been a multi billion dollar purchase.

But after Turkey ordered an advanced Russian air defense S-400 battery, the U.S. decided to ban the sale of F-35s.

The S-400, used to track and shoot down attacking aircraft, was seen as a threat to the F-35 joint strike fighter program adopted in several NATO countries.

The decision left Turkey with an air force in need of rejuvenation. Turkeys current F-16 fleet are block 30/40/50 models. These are outdated and some block 30 models may need to be sidelined entirely.

Since the US wouldn’t sell Turkey the F-35, they decided instead to order 40 new F-16s block 70 models to at least carry them through the decade. They also ordered 80 modernization kits to upgrade their older F-16s.

But this purchase was also frozen by the U.S.

When Sweden needed Turkeys vote to join NATO this past summer, Biden suggested he would green light the F-16 purchase in exchange for Swedish membership in NATO.

Turkeys vote for Swedish membership in NATO did result in the approval of modernization kits.

But the 40 new F-16s are still in limbo.

So Turkey normalized relationships with Israel with the same hopes as the UAE:

𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝘂𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗹.

If Turkey had better relations with Israel, maybe the US would finalize the F-16 deal.

Additionally, Israel and Turkey entered discussions for a major energy deal.

In 2010, Israel claimed a large discovery of natural gas off its coast. Among the places Israel would like to sell that gas is Europe.

he most economically viable way to get Israeli gas to Europe is through Turkey.

Both countries stand to gain economically and diplomatically should they play a role in reducing Europe’s dependence on Russia for energy.

Only just a year after normalizing relations, Turkish Israeli relations are in a difficult position.

Neither want to lose out on an opportunity to profit from Europes energy insecurity.

And for Turkey, their future isn’t secure until they can modernize their air force.

So, ignore the performative outrage.

Instead, pay attention to the reality behind the scenes and follow the money trail.

As tough as Turkey might talk, they aren’t risking their future for Gaza.

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