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Kamil Galeev Profile picture
@kamilkazani
Nov 14, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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1. Russian-Ukrainian war is mostly an artillery war

2. Russian artillery production fully relies upon a few dozen GFM Steyr (Austria) radial forging machines

3. Which rely upon the continuous supply of expendables from the original producer

It is *the* bottleneck. Target it
The funny thing with the GFM Steyr is that it is not even a large business. In 2021, its revenue was estimated at only 32,5 million euros. In 2022, it rose to 69,8 million (for obvious reasons). Yet, the Russian artillery industry is critically dependent upon this single company
First, the existing park of GFM Steyr machines requires a steady supply of parts and expendables to keep them running. Consider this one single SXP-55 radial forging machine operating at the Motovilikha Plants, a major artillery & MLRS producer
In April 2023, they purchased the following expendables for their GFM SXP-55 machine. This list gives an idea of:

1. Structure
2. Quantity

of supplies required to keep the stock forging the artillery & tank barrels running. You need details from the original Austrian producer Image
Second, you need GFM assistance to expand the production capacity. For example, Uralvagonzavod (the only Russian tank producer) is planning to launch a new GFM Steyr radial forging machine in March 2024

Why do you allow Austrians to keep building the Russian military machine? Image
1. A small (!) Austrian business plays a major role in keeping the Russian artillery industry afloat

2. Russian capacity to forge artillery & tank barrels relies on the GFM machines purchased in Soviet & Putin's times

3. GFM keeps supplying expendables & machines to Russia Image
Why don't you:

1. Protest at their HQ at Steyr?
2. Question their management, starting from their President & CEO Michael Kralowetz?
3. Contact the Austrian & EU authorities regarding why the GFM Steyr is still capable of supplying & expanding the Russian artillery industry?
This war is an artillery war. Every GFM shipment = your soldiers being torn into pieces. The Ukrainian civil society must take initiative and pressure the GFM Steyr to cease its shipments to the Russian military industry & its proxies

Small company -> easy to pressure

Do it Image
Here you can read more details & background for how a small Austrian business ended up as a major supplier of major military industrial complexes over the globe

kamilkazani.substack.com/p/why-does-the…

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More from @kamilkazani

Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Apr 5
I have recently read someone comparing Trump’s tariffs with collectivisation in the USSR. I think it is an interesting comparison. I don’t think it is exactly the same thing of course. But I indeed think that Stalin’s collectivisation offers an interesting metaphor, a perspective to think aboutImage
But let’s make a crash intro first

1. The thing you need to understand about the 1920s USSR is that it was an oligarchic regime. It was not strictly speaking, an autocracy. It was a power of few grandees, of the roughly equal rank.
2. Although Joseph Stalin established himself as the single most influential grandee by 1925, that did not make him a dictator. He was simply the most important guy out there. Otherwise, he was just one of a few. He was not yet the God Emperor he would become later.
Read 30 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 16
The great delusion about popular revolts is that they are provoked by bad conditions of life, and burst out when they exacerbate. Nothing can be further from truth. For the most part, popular revolts do not happen when things get worse. They occur when things turn for the better
This may sound paradoxical and yet, may be easy to explain. When the things had been really, really, really bad, the masses were too weak, to scared and too depressed to even think of raising their head. If they beared any grudges and grievances, they beared them in silence.
When things turn for the better, that is when the people see a chance to restore their pride and agency, and to take revenge for all the past grudges, and all the past fear. As a result, a turn for the better not so much pacifies the population as emboldens and radicalises it.
Read 6 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Mar 1
Three years of the war have passed

So, let’s recall what has happened so far

The first thing to understand about the Russian-Ukrainian war is that Russia did not plan a war. And it, most certainly, did not plan the protracted hostilities of the kind we are seeing today Image
This entire war is the regime change gone wrong.

Russia did not want a protracted war (no one does). It wanted to replace the government in Kyiv, put Ukraine under control and closely integrate it with Russia

(Operation Danube style) Image
One thing to understand is that Russia viewed Ukraine as a considerable asset. From the Russian perspective, it was a large and populous country populated by what was (again, from the Russian perspective) effectively the same people. Assimilatable, integratable, recruitable Image
Read 32 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Feb 8
Why does Russia attack?

In 1991, Moscow faced two disobedient ethnic republics: Chechnya and Tatarstan. Both were the Muslim majority autonomies that refused to sign the Federation Treaty (1992), insisting on full sovereignty. In both cases, Moscow was determined to quell them. Image
Still, the final outcome could not be more different. Chechnya was invaded, its towns razed to the ground, its leader assassinated. Tatarstan, on the other hand, managed to sign a favourable agreement with Moscow that lasted until Putin’s era.

The question is - why. Image
Retrospectively, this course of events (obliterate Chechnya, negotiate with Tatarstan) may seem predetermined. But it was not considered as such back then. For many, including many of Yeltsin’s own partisans it came as a surprise, or perhaps even as a betrayal.

Let's see why Image
Read 24 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Feb 2
On the origins of Napoleon

The single most important thing to understand regarding the background of Napoleon Bonaparte, is that he was born in the Mediterranean. And the Mediterranean, in the words of Braudel, is a sea ringed round by mountains Image
We like to slice the space horizontally, in our imagination. But what we also need to do is to slice it vertically. Until very recently, projection of power (of culture, of institutions) up had been incomparably more difficult than in literally any horizontal direction. Image
Mountains were harsh, impenetrable. They formed a sort of “internal Siberia” in this mild region. Just a few miles away, in the coastal lowland, you had olives and vineyards. Up in the highland, you could have blizzards, and many feet of snow blocking connections with the world. Image
Read 7 tweets
Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Jan 4
Slavonic = "Russian" religious space used to be really weird until the 16-17th cc. I mean, weird from the Western, Latin standpoint. It was not until second half of the 16th c., when the Jesuit-educated Orthodox monks from Poland-Lithuania started to rationalise & systematise it based on the Latin (Jesuit, mostly) model
One could frame the modern, rationalised Orthodoxy as a response to the Counterreformation. Because it was. The Latin world advanced, Slavonic world retreated. So, in a fuzzy borderland zone roughly encompassing what is now Ukraine-Belarus-Lithuania, the Catholic-educated Orthodox monks re-worked Orthodox institutions modeling them after the Catholic ones
By the mid-17th c. this new, Latin modeled Orthodox culture had already trickled to Muscovy. And, after the annexation of the Left Bank Ukraine in 1654, it all turned into a flood. Eventually, the Muscovite state accepted the new, Latinised Orthodoxy as the established creed, and extirpated the previous faith & the previous culture
Read 4 tweets

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