Arnaud Bertrand Profile picture
Nov 16 3 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
In what's likely an extremely consequential meeting, this is what Xi told Biden according to the Chinese readout of their meeting (). I think anyone who wishes to understand China's standpoint wrt to the US should read this:

- There are 2 options for China and the U.S. going forward:
either 1) "enhance solidarity and cooperation and join hands to meet global challenges and promote global security and prosperity"
or 2) "cling to the zero-sum mentality, provoke rivalry and confrontation, and drive the world toward turmoil and division"

- To highlight the extreme importance of this Xi stressed that "the two choices point to two different directions that will decide the future of humanity and Planet Earth."

- He said that "China’s development is driven by its inherent logic and dynamics. China will not take the old path of colonization and plundering, or the wrong path of seeking hegemony with growing strength. It does not export its ideology, or engage in ideological confrontation with any country."

- He sought to reassure the US that "China does not have a plan to surpass or unseat the U.S. Likewise, the U.S. should not scheme to suppress and contain China." The reason why is because "mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation are the lessons we learned from 50 years of China-U.S. relations as well as the conflicts between major countries in history. China and the U.S. should put in a lot of efforts to follow them."

- For the purpose of achieving "solidarity and cooperation" instead of "rivalry and confrontation" he proposed the following 5 steps/principles:
1) "Jointly developing a right perception. China is consistently committed to having a stable, healthy and sustainable relationship with the U.S." But "at the same time, China has interests that must be safeguarded, principles that must be upheld, and red lines that must not be crossed."
2) "Jointly managing disagreements effectively. It is important that they appreciate each other’s principles and red lines, and refrain from flip-flopping, being provocative, and crossing the lines. China and the U.S. should have more communications, more dialogues and more consultations, and calmly handle their differences as well as accidents."
3) "Jointly advancing mutually beneficial cooperation. It is important to fully utilize the restored and new mechanisms in foreign policy, economy, finance, commerce, agriculture and other fields, and carry out cooperation in such areas as counternarcotics, judicial and law enforcement affairs, AI, and science and technology."
4) "Jointly shouldering responsibilities as major countries. China and the U.S. should lead by example, step up coordination and cooperation on international and regional issues, and provide more public goods for the world."
5) "Jointly promoting people-to-people exchanges. The two sides should increase direct flights, advance tourism cooperation, expand subnational exchanges, strengthen educational cooperation, and encourage & support greater interactions & communication between their people."

Xi also expanded on China's "interests that must be safeguarded, principles that must be upheld, and red lines that must not be crossed":
- He pointed out that "the Taiwan question remains the most important and most sensitive issue in China-U.S. relations. China takes seriously the positive statements made by the U.S. in the Bali meeting." He said that "the U.S. side should take real actions to honor its commitment of not supporting 'Taiwan independence', stop arming Taiwan, and support China’s peaceful reunification. China will realize reunification, and this is unstoppable."
- He also said that "U.S. actions against China regarding export control, investment screening and unilateral sanctions seriously hurt China’s legitimate interests." He considers that "stifling China’s technological progress is nothing but a move to contain China’s high-quality development and deprive the Chinese people of their right to development."
- He highlighted that despite U.S. efforts "China’s development and growth, driven by its own inherent logic, will not be stopped by external forces." He told Biden that "it is important that the U.S. side take China’s concerns seriously and adopt tangible steps to lift its unilateral sanctions so as to provide an equal, fair and nondiscriminatory environment for Chinese businesses."

That's about it. If one were to summarize, this was Xi trying to make Biden understand both countries and the world at large would be much better off if they cooperated instead of confronted each other, and making it clear that some red lines were being crossed (Taiwan and attempts to contain China’s development).

Knowing Biden and the neocons around him, it's sadly a fair bet this fell on deaf ears... Although I do believe that with Ukraine and Israel, they'll probably look to stabilize things for a while given they have their hands full with their existing wars.
The US readout of the meeting () is unsurprisingly much less constructive and inspiring. It has Biden telling Xi:

- We're not doing this "solidarity and cooperation" stuff you're talking about and we're mobilizing a bloc to compete with you and what you stand for: "The US and China are in competition, noting that the United States would continue to invest in the sources of American strength at home and align with allies and partners around the world.  He stressed that the United States would always stand up for its interests, its values, and its allies and partners.  He reiterated that the world expects the United States and China to manage competition responsibly to prevent it from veering into conflict, confrontation, or a new Cold War."

- The readout highlights a few concrete achievements of the meeting, mainly the "resumption of bilateral cooperation to combat global illicit drug manufacturing and trafficking" as well as "the resumption of high-level military-to-military communication". It also underscores "the need to address the risks of advanced AI systems and improve AI safety through U.S.-China government talks".

- With the usual disguised language, he essentially said he'd seek to preserve American hegemony and fight China's influence in its own neighborhood: "President Biden underscored the United States’ support for a free and open Indo-Pacific that is connected, prosperous, secure, and resilient.  The President reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to defending our Indo-Pacific allies.  The President emphasized the United States’ enduring commitment to freedom of navigation and overflight, adherence to international law, maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea and East China Sea, and the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula."

- He highlighted the US's commitment to Ukraine and Israel: "President Biden reaffirmed that the United States, alongside allies and partners, will continue to support Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression, to ensure Ukraine emerges from this war as a democratic, independent, sovereign, and prosperous nation that can deter and defend itself against future aggression." Interesting to note there's nothing about getting Ukraine's territory back anymore, which might suggest the US has given up on this objective... Regarding Israel Biden said he "reiterated U.S. support for Israel’s right to defend itself against terrorism and emphasized the importance of all countries using their influence to prevent escalation and expansion of the conflict"

- There was of course the usual lecture on values: "President Biden underscored the universality of human rights and the responsibility of all nations to respect their international human rights commitments. He raised concerns regarding PRC human rights abuses, including in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong."

- On Taiwan Biden said that "our one China policy has not changed and has been consistent across decades and administrations." Which anyone who knows anything about the issue knows is a bold-face lie. The US's One-China policy has radically changed under Biden. Him sticking to this line of argument - which is a denial of the truth - isn't exactly reassuring...

- Biden also essentially said he'd continue its efforts to stifle China technological and economic development: "the United States will continue to take necessary actions to prevent advanced U.S. technologies from being used to undermine our own national security, without unduly limiting trade and investment."

So yeah... I might be on the pessimistic side but it looks like between Xi's 2 options - "solidarity and cooperation" and "rivalry and confrontation" - Biden pretty clearly favors the 2nd one. With maybe a temporary pause right now due to the US having its hands full.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
And Biden insulted Xi right after the meeting 🤦

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More from @RnaudBertrand

Nov 16
There you go, China obviously displeased.

And I suspect simply dumbfounded: "why would you ask us over to improve the relationship and publicly insult us?" It makes no sense.

It's also terrible for the US's image in the world, highlights they just can't do diplomacy anymore.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 13
Macron's list of continuous flip flops on Gaza is due another update after his more recent declarations so here it goes (proving how utterly confusing France's foreign policy has become):

- 12th of October: France bans all pro-Palestinian protests (the French, as they do, don't care and protest anyhow)

- 24th of October: Macron goes to Israel and even propose France joins the fight against Hamas (!)

- 28th of October (4 days later!): France was one of the very rare Western nations that voted the UN resolution for a "humanitarian truce".

- 2nd of October (another 4 days later): Benjamin Haddad, the spokesperson for Macron's party, says he isn't for a ceasefire.

- 11th November: Macron now says he's for a ceasefire and tells the BBC that he "urges Israel to stop" because "there is no reason and no legitimacy [for killing civilians"

- 13th of November (today): Macron now declares he "unequivocally supports Israel and its right to self-defense."

Again, Macron's most singular political strategy is the "en même temps", trying to stand on all sides of all issues at the same time. Resulting in this: France ends up being led on a road to nowhere and no-one understand where it stands.
12th of October, France bans all pro-Palestinian protests
24th of October, in Israel "Macron proposes that the coalition against the Islamic State [which France is also a member of of] can also fight against Hamas"
Read 7 tweets
Sep 25
This is so profoundly true and everyone needs to understand that. This is a 2011 video of James Peck, Professor of History at NYU, author of "Ideal Illusions, How the U.S. Government Co-opted Human Rights" and one of the keenest observers of China in the U.S.

He explains that actually, when it comes to "human rights" in China, Western backing of the various individuals and movements is "a serious mistake".

For instance he makes the stunning claim that before the 1989 Tiananmen events he went to "a soirée" at the American embassy and "it was filled with the people who later became very prominent in Tiananmen." He remarks that the way to understand this is to "imagine a comparable contrast in this country where Americans were busily associating with people in a foreign embassy" and then attempting a revolution...

I have zero doubt in my mind that if China or Russia made interference efforts in the US similar to those the US makes in their countries, the US would undoubtedly become an incredibly more dystopian surveillance and security state than it is today, and much more "authoritarian" than China or Russia have ever been.

In way, this is what the PRC has always been telling the world: "no foreign interference". But we've always doubled down in this profound mistake, which in the end helps absolutely no-one.

We always comes back to the all-important golden rule: "Do not do unto others what you wouldn't like done unto you".
He also had a fantastic response to a halfwit question about human rights in China: "you are speaking in a country [the US] that has the largest prison population in the planet, bigger than China's [...] You sometimes say 'we should follow the American model'. What's the American model? Well, find a continent that only has Indians on it that you can get rid of, develop it, become incredibly wealthy, not have foreign powers on your borders and... have the American model!"
Lastly, and I couldn't agree with this more, he explains it is a "profound misunderstanding" to believe China's market reforms "were possible without the revolution" (i.e. the Mao era).

He also explains that the Western version of recent Chinese totally miss the context in 1949 when "the US [was] on Taiwan, blockading all the major cities on China that were the treaty ports and you have a 100 million people in those ports whose trade had once been with the external world and no longer can China develop in that road. It's gonna have to figure out how to develop, because of that hostility, I think significantly, a kind of revolution that turns deeply inward."
Read 4 tweets
Sep 10
I get asked this all the time, so I am reposting my famous thread of all the top strategic thinkers - from Kissinger to Chomsky - who warned for years that war was coming if we pursued NATO expansion, yet had their advice ignored (which begs the question: why?).
The first one is George Kennan, arguably America's greatest ever foreign policy strategist, the architect of the U.S. cold war strategy. As soon as 1998 he warned that NATO expansion was a "tragic mistake" that ought to ultimately provoke a "bad reaction from Russia". Image
Then there's Kissinger, in 2014 ⬇️ He warned that "to Russia, Ukraine can never be just a foreign country" and that it therefore needs a policy that is aimed at "reconciliation". He was also adamant that "Ukraine should not join NATO".

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Read 29 tweets
Sep 4
The more I think about it, the more the I realize how huge this news actually is, how big a win it is for China, and how big a loss for the US.

In one simple move, China basically proved that the enormous years-long efforts the US put to destroy both Huawei and the Chinese semiconductor industry have been defeated.

In typical Chinese fashion - words are cheap in China, you prove yourself with deeds - they didn't make any announcements about it. Huawei didn't even communicate on the product launch, the phone just showed up in their store. And that was coincidentally on exactly the same day as the visit of US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, who had vowed to "slow China's innovation rate". Talk about symbolism!

People had to look inside the phone to find out it is equipped with Huawei’s in-house Kirin 9000s processor, which is apparently made by Chinese semiconductor firm SMIC using a 2nd generation 7nm-class fabrication process. Less than one year ago, when the US introduced its sweeping set of sanctions against the Chinese semiconductors industry, "experts" vowed it would kill the industry or at least freeze its technological progress at the 28 nm chips China were at back then. Fast forward to now: China can evidently mass-produce 2nd generation 7nm chips entirely indigenously. The iPhone 14 Pro has 4nm chips so China is now almost on par, maybe just 1 or 2 years behind but catching up at an insane speed.

So what has the US managed to do? They've transformed Huawei into an incredibly more resilient company and have made China build an entirely indigenous semiconductors ecosystem, which wasn't the case at all before the sanctions, and which I am sure will prove to be a formidable competitor to other semiconductor companies out there.

Because other countries have been paying attention here. They now know that it's super dangerous to source semiconductors with Western firms as the US won't hesitate to weaponize the industry for geopolitical ends. So they'll turn to Chinese firms...

What about Huawei's new phone? You can absolutely bet Huawei will end up eating a significant market share from Apple - as was the case before the sanctions. Especially in China where patriotic Chinese will undoubtedly rush to buy the phone, now a symbol of China's technological might.

So it's lose, lose, lose for the US. Much more loss than if they hadn't done any of their aggressive actions against Huawei or China's chip sector.

Which again goes to show just how utterly pointless this new "cold war" is. Had the US decided to remain in engagement mode instead of "extreme competition" mode (as they call it), they'd have been much better off.

In a word: hubris.
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And this 👇 Of course. For many Western chip-related firms China was 40-50% of their revenue. Let me tell you: their future market share in China isn't looking too good for them right now, and that's the understatement of the century...
And of course I couldn't possibly tweet on this topic and not remind people of this classic "China watcher" take from last October when the US chip sanctions were announced.

Works for the Rhodium group, "an independent research provider combining economic data and policy insight to analyze global trends." He certainly nailed that trend 😂
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Read 4 tweets
Aug 31
Ask yourself why they want to forbid you to travel to Xinjiang...

Because it destroys the narrative - it has to becomes "what you're seeing isn't real" - as argued in this article: "[you] only [see] a Uyghur identity permitted by the Chinese state" 🤦
theguardian.com/world/2023/aug…
It's also incredibly insulting: you're apparently way too stupid to be trusted with your own eyes...

And ironically Orwellian: 'The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.'
You are correct, no restriction. All you need is a standard Chinese tourist visa.
Read 5 tweets

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