Thread by @michaeldweiss

.@holger_r and I talked to "Karl," the Estonian military analyst, about latest developments in Ukraine. Thread:

"This time, let’s start with a broader overview of the situation. It got quite messy for Ukraine from the strategic communication perspective a few weeks ago. It was a combination of several issues..."

"1. The expectations that Ukraine had for the summer counter-offensive were by far not met.
2. The still on-going confusion in U.S. Congress regarding funding Ukraine
3. Fears relating to Trump’s possible return to White House..."

"4. Internal fighting that broke out after Zaluzhny’s Economist article and the subsequent criticism from Ukraine's president’s administration.

If you add Russia's massive attacks mainly on Avdiivka, it all became very problematic."

"So far, Russia hasn’t achieved success with the attack and in the last few weeks the overall picture has improved a lot. Ukraine's internal rhetoric is more or less in tune again. The Zelensky-Zaluzhny quarrel hasn’t advanced."

"There are clear indications from D.C. that the new Ukraine package will be approved before the end of year. It will be a compromise that will account for domestic U.S. issues, but sooner or later Congress will reach an agreement."

"The Russian offensive hasn’t led to a breakthrough. They continue to press on but it has come with the price of massive losses. Their latest wave of attacks on Avdiivka has slowed down over the last days."

"The overall picture in the last few weeks was much more depressing than the actual situation on the frontline."

"Militarily, Russia has achieved very small wins near Avdiivka. They’re also pressing south of Bakhmut at Klyschiivka but so far with no success."

"Ukraine's success on the eastern bank of the Dnipro is strategically more meaningful. Their small bridgeheads are steadily expanding their areas of control. Russia has a serious risk that Ukraine will cut through the M14 highway that connects Melitopol & Nova Kakhovka."

"This would significantly hamper Russia’s ability to supply their forces on the eastern bank. It can also affect Russia’s position on the Kinburn peninsula which is the only remaining area of the Mykolaiv oblast under Russian occupation."

"It is not strategically very important, but Russia uses Kinburn to launch attacks on Mykolaiv. The roads to Kinburn are already under Ukraine’s fire range."

"Elsewhere, Russia has not seen notable success in their attacks on Kupyansk and Marinka directions. The same goes for Ukraine’s push towards Tokmak in the south."

"What is the perspective of Ukraine’s operations on the east bank of the Dnipro? From there it’s only 60-70 kilometers to Armyansk in Crimea. If Ukraine breaks through the eastern bank, it will be a huge risk for Russia."

"The territory there is not so heavily fortified. The minefields were washed away by the floods when the Kakhovka Dam was blown up and Russia hasn’t been able to restore the minefields. Also, there aren’t even the small forest strips along the fields that would offer cover."

"If Russia brings additional units and weapons, Ukraine can destroy them from farther away. Russia's fortifications start only at Chaplynka which is halfway between Nova Kakhovka and Armyansk."

"Ukraine’s defense has kept steady at Avdiivka so far but there is reason for concern as Avdiivka is itself at ‘tooth’ inside Russia's defensive line. There is a risk of encirclement. It is Ukraine’s closest point to Donetsk. This is the main strategic importance of it to Kyiv."

"For Russia it is also a matter of some symbolic importance. The frontline hasn’t changed much there since 2014."

"Compared to last year when hordes of prisoners died for Bakhmut, Russia's losses come in the majority now from the rows of mobniks. There is a risk that the high casualty rate can grow into discontent in Russian society."

"You can sense some discontent in Russian war blogs but if and when it spreads to the general society, I can’t assess. There was one attempt to organize a soldiers’ mom’s protest in Moscow but that was banned with the excuse of COVID."

"Overall, I don’t see significant change of the frontline this winter. I am mildly surprised that Russia hasn’t yet started massive rocket attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Last year it started at the end of October."

"It might mean that Russia wants to launch an even more massive attack than the roughly 100 missiles per day they used last year. They might be waiting for even colder weather to come, although it is already very chilly there."

"Ukraine doesn’t have air defense cover across the country. This means that they can be vulnerable to large-scale missile attacks in some places."

"Zelensky has now confirmed that there will be no elections next year. This is clear. It was strange pressure from a specific part of the U.S. administration to hold the elections. I can’t imagine who'd take the responsibility to open polling stations during the war."

"The UK didn’t hold elections during World War II. Why would we presume that Ukraine would do it now, especially when its constitution bars it and you can’t amend the constitution during a time of war?"

"The Kremlin has demonstrated that it can effectively stop systemic attempts to weaken its rule in Russia but it fails to react and stop unpredictable situations such as the Makhachkala airport storming."

"Every country takes extra measures to protect its airports but they allowed a gang to just storm it and keep control of the airport for 5-6 hours. This incident also raised the question how eager were the Dagestani security officials to follow Moscow’s orders."

"They seemed to just calmly observe what was going on."

"Elsewhere, the EU’s plan to supply Ukraine with a million shells by March 2024 is far behind schedule. It is realistic that they will achieve 60-65% of the plan by March."

"The European and American defense industries say that they need assurances that if they open new production lines, there will be enough orders for the next 5-10 years."

"The development in that direction is still slow. It raises the question if the West actually buys its own rhetoric the need to be prepared for a long war." /END