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Reflects how spectacularly poor we are at assessing risk.
When someone says I’m ok with the risk, it usually means they feel safe, not that they’ve performed a formal risk assessment.
No one I know has been disabled in an MVA, doesn’t lead me to conclude there’s no risk.
When someone says I’m ok with the risk, it usually means they feel safe, not that they’ve performed a formal risk assessment.
No one I know has been disabled in an MVA, doesn’t lead me to conclude there’s no risk.
https://twitter.com/brownecfm/status/1727278534560035131
This is the reason cvd is causing such widespread harm, the serious immediate impact is relatively low, and the longer term impacts aren’t usually immediate.
If 50% were dying while visibly hemorrhaging, there’d be more urgency broadly.
Think 1918 flu or the Plague.
If 50% were dying while visibly hemorrhaging, there’d be more urgency broadly.
Think 1918 flu or the Plague.
But, if you approach cvd as formal risk, it changes the perception. Most can’t (or won’t) do this.
LC 5-25% incidence. 1/20 to 1/4 odds with any infection, increasing with repeats. That’s more than enough to require mitigation.
How many lottery tickets give a 1/20 win?
LC 5-25% incidence. 1/20 to 1/4 odds with any infection, increasing with repeats. That’s more than enough to require mitigation.
How many lottery tickets give a 1/20 win?
But LC is not always visible or recognized. “Brain fog” “Fatigue” “Dizziness” “It’s not cvd!”
Immune de-regulation is far more concerning. Even more difficult to see along one person’s horizon, but clear in population data.
No indication of probability I’ve seen, possibly 100%?
Immune de-regulation is far more concerning. Even more difficult to see along one person’s horizon, but clear in population data.
No indication of probability I’ve seen, possibly 100%?
Lacking any probabilistic risk data tells me much more caution is required.
But most individuals “doing a personal risk assessment” don’t know how to do that beyond, “I feel ok, no one I know is really sick”. Especially with public health massively failing to provide that data.
But most individuals “doing a personal risk assessment” don’t know how to do that beyond, “I feel ok, no one I know is really sick”. Especially with public health massively failing to provide that data.
Even MDs don’t get this mostly. Story from .@1goodtern about how they suggested a child might have PANS, and the GPs were surprised as they didn’t know cvd could do that.
Where does an individual get quant data for proper formal risk assessment?
Where does an individual get quant data for proper formal risk assessment?
We’re at the point where systems designed to do this for us have failed or stopped caring.
Literally need to read the research papers coming out several times per day now.
And follow risk assessment experts to see what they’re projecting.
Citizen science is all we’ve got left.
Literally need to read the research papers coming out several times per day now.
And follow risk assessment experts to see what they’re projecting.
Citizen science is all we’ve got left.
(And I’m not a risk expert)
Did formal assessments in flight test, escape systems and business risk…but I’m not someone to listen to about health risk.
What I do know is how poor risk analysis causes catastrophe. And I see lots of those harbingers today.
Did formal assessments in flight test, escape systems and business risk…but I’m not someone to listen to about health risk.
What I do know is how poor risk analysis causes catastrophe. And I see lots of those harbingers today.
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