Thread by @danielgoyal

So, it's my day off and I have a cold. As sad as it is, I have found myself live-tweeting the Covid Inquiry.

Please do mute this thread if you are not interested.

It is Professor of Mathematical Biology, Prof MacLean, and the dumpster fire that is Kemi Badenoch today.

Prof Maclean says that Prof Reilly who is normally very cautious had said they would need to go into lockdown and stay there for quite some time on the 10th of March. She was very concerned that Ministers just didn't get the calamity that was to follow.

I find this incredible. By now we are at 13th of March and this is the first time we are modelling worst-case scenario versus true NHS capacity

The point made by Prof Maclean here is that if NHS capacity is very low then the effort to suppress will need to be monumental

This was actually (AS I HAVE BEEN SCREAMING ABOUT FOR AGES) the critical factor in the pandemic (after we had missed the window to contain it)...

With a shockingly poor NHS capacity lockdown was inevitable and would have to be long and severe healthcare rationing unavoidable

16th March - voluntary restrictions come in. Data came in showing on the 18th of March that 40% reduction in contacts had occurred (actually quite impressive). It was clearly not enough.

And this is crucial to the Judge here. She questions whether voluntary would have been enough. It is a theme throughout the inquiry...did we need mandated orders given how well the people of the UK responded to volunatary measures?...

Prof Maclean knocks this one out the park

She is clear that had voluntary measures been enough, hospitalisations would have peaked ten days later. It did not. And in fact peaked 10 days after lockdown was imposed.

I think this is right...by this point (March), in the absence of C&T up to now, lockdown was inevitable.

Prof is clear that lockdown absolutely should have happened on 16th March. Again, the reason for the delay of lockdown to the 23rd of March isn't entirely clear. Expect some grilling of Johnson on this.

Prof is also clear that had lockdown not happened, then the first peak would have been considerably worse. Again, this is part of the misinformation that has made it's way to the Inquiry that "the curve was falling anyway". Without lockdown (by this stage) it would be worse.

Prof brings up an important issue...scientists probably did not expect vaccines to come so soon and be so effective. As such, there may have been some move to getting through the pandemic (Sweden style).

Astonishingly, modellers do not seem to have been told what capacity the NHS could handle going forward...

Honestly, I am raging about this. How on earth can a pandemic be running and the NHS be smaller??

Big question from counsel: if there was a proper strategy could we have managed the pandemic better?

Honestly, this beggars belief. The govt did not have clear boundaries or a strategy for managing the pandemic post-lockdown.

The position of the modellers was clearly that if a vaccine would be available within 5 years then they should go for low incidence i.e. controls. As I thought, the govt were under the impression that 1 year of high incidence would produce herd ("A useful level of") immunity

Buckle up for this...

Prof Maclean clearly articulates the choice (the same one people like @Dr_D_Robertson were highlighting)...

How many deaths are acceptable to the govt.

@Dr_D_Robertson In April Prof Maclean clearly put forward the possibility of going for Covid ELIMINATION.

Would elimination have been possible ever?

Certainly not after we had seeded the infection after the February school break!

WOW!!!! @trishgreenhalgh @chrischirp @dgurdasani1

@Dr_D_Robertson @trishgreenhalgh @chrischirp @dgurdasani1 The govt had a "half-way" meeting in April, as if this was them half way through the pandemic. Prof Maclean said it was a t least 18 months to go...and you "could hear a pin drop". Astonishing they did not know this.

@Dr_D_Robertson @trishgreenhalgh @chrischirp @dgurdasani1 June, the R number reached 0.7 - the pandemic was shrinking.

"The second wave was completely foreseeable."

September "the worst moment of the pandemic"...

Frustrating to advise the govt and saying to do something and NOTHING HAPPENED!

@Dr_D_Robertson @trishgreenhalgh @chrischirp @dgurdasani1 Very clear evidence being given just now that scientists were strongly advising to act and the govt just weren't listening!

They then advised a circuit-breaking. Bear in mind had they listened lockdowns would have been much shorter!

@Dr_D_Robertson @trishgreenhalgh @chrischirp @dgurdasani1 Oh my....

Prof Mclean attends a meeting "Should the govt act now?" she says they need to "get a grip" on the pandemic.

KC: did it work?

Prof: clearly not as nothing happened

DAMNING!

@Dr_D_Robertson @trishgreenhalgh @chrischirp @dgurdasani1 Some people at the meeting thought "mores studies were needed" and this was the same as doing nothing "in my view".

But check this...the Chief Science officer of Sweden is at the meeting and says this (they should act)

@Dr_D_Robertson @trishgreenhalgh @chrischirp @dgurdasani1 At that meeting, Prof Gupta and Henagan, put forward a different view at that meeting...in regards to herd immunity. Protect vulnerable groups and let it rip.

The level of engagement the Judge is giving to the GBD/herd immunity is quite astonishing. Does someone have her ear?

@Dr_D_Robertson @trishgreenhalgh @chrischirp @dgurdasani1 Prof Maclean completely blows this argument out of the water...it would not have been possible to segregate certain populations...households are not made up with the compositions to allow that.

@Dr_D_Robertson @trishgreenhalgh @chrischirp @dgurdasani1 Prof is doing well not to be quite annoyed about this line of questioning...it is clearly and evidently a ridiculously wrong idea. The large autumn wave and catastrophic consequences prove it unequivocally!

@Dr_D_Robertson @trishgreenhalgh @chrischirp @dgurdasani1 It's hard to disagree with a point made by the judge that Scientists need to be better at making their point. Scientists equivocate, as is their training. A point comes when we need to say we are certain enough to be unequivocal. A very difficult thing to achieve.

@Dr_D_Robertson @trishgreenhalgh @chrischirp @dgurdasani1 This is a spectacular graph by Prof John Edmunds highlighting just how late our March lockdown was.

Prof Maclean is very clear that the govt didn't learn from the mistakes in March. Expect ministers to get roasted on this.

@Dr_D_Robertson @trishgreenhalgh @chrischirp @dgurdasani1 KC: Would a circuit breaker meant less deaths?

Prof: YES!

Recommendations made 21st Sept,

"couldn't understand why the govt weren't doing anything"

Tiers eventually put in a month later. Astonishingly SAGE or SPIMO were asked to advise on the tier system!!!! WTF!!!!

@Dr_D_Robertson @trishgreenhalgh @chrischirp @dgurdasani1 Sorry guys, that's me done. Can't sit through two hours of Badenoch.