Thread by @BigManBakar

🧵 GW13 Preview Thread 🧵

Welcome to my latest GW13 preview thread where I cover:

🔴Best Bowen replacements
🔴Mitoma
🔴Mbeumo & Palmer
🔴Captaincy
🔴Cash
🔴Benching dilemmas

Fantasy5 has joined forces with Opta to introduce thrilling new gaming experiences!

Vie for your piece of the $70,000 prize pool in games centered on "Opta player ratings."

Sign up and play for free 👉

#ad bit.ly/3QQDFFG

Still torn on your transfers for GW13?

See what the AI has to say about your team!

Check out recommended transfers for your own team for FREE here: 👇

fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/ai-team-rating…

Q) What to do with Mitoma and Bowen?

First and foremost, wait for the press conferences.

Mitoma has been pictured in training but De Zerbi is generally very difficult to predict.

What makes it trickier is that Brighton have a crucial encounter in the Europa League on Thursday, so Mitoma’s minutes could be at risk even if he is “fit” and back in training.

If he is fit, he is a reasonable hold but if you have two free transfers with no pressing issues in your squad, you can choose to sell.

If Bowen is ruled out, you can sell with two free transfers at your disposal. I don’t view him as a “must have” over the next few weeks.

If you have just the one free transfer but an able replacement for Bowen on the bench to cover, then you can opt to hold him.

With no able replacement on the bench to cover, I would advise selling Bowen.

In case you are looking to sell either, I think Mbeumo is the best replacement.

xGi this season

1) Haaland 13.6
2) Salah 12.0
3) Mbeumo 10.7 🎁
4) Watkins 8.4

Mbeumo is an absolute gift. He's competing with the big boys for underlying data at £6.8m. 90 minute man, on penalties with a potential double soon.

I was just looking at some of the under & over performers this season.

Mbeumo is actually one of the biggest underperformers, with just 6 non pen returns from a non pen xGi of 9.21!

The crazy part is that he should be on more returns, imagine the frenzy had that been the case! Easily the best Mitoma/Bowen replacement if needed.

I would pick Palmer in case you can’t afford Mbeumo.

I prefer the option of picking Palmer immediately rather than going for Eze for the next 3 & switching to Palmer later.

Palmer has benefited from penalties but he's actually 4th for non pen xGi among midfielders since his 1st start in GW7.

Since Palmer has started playing, he has a non pen xGi of 0.53 per 90 which is really impressive considering that he has played Ars, City & Spurs in that run.

Even without penalties, he is a gamebreaker with the fixtures coming up. Will be in almost every active team soon.

Q) Who is the best captain this week?

Assuming he is fit, Erling Haaland is always a reliable choice – especially at home where he tends to usually get his big hauls (even though he has actually done better away this season).

No player beats him for xG or non penalty xG this season so a return is almost guaranteed whenever he starts.

If Haaland is a doubt/leaked not to start this week, I don't mind going for Son (c).

Villa are 19th for big chances conceded away this season & 2nd for big chances conceded at home. Big disparity!

Wolves last week was a tough test - even City didn't create much at the Molineux.

Both Newcastle and Villa failed to win there as well so I wouldn’t yet buy into the narrative which suggests that Son will be a much poorer pick in the absence of Maddison.

While it might be true to some extent, Maddison’s absence also means that Son will almost certainly be on penalties.

Q) What to do with Cash?

Cash is expendable from this point onwards, especially if you have two free transfers and no pressing issues in your team.

3 of his 4 big chances came when he was a RW, which isn't the case anymore. Fixtures are getting tougher & attacking threat is not the same.

Saliba is the best replacement, Arsenal are 1st for non pen xGc with good fixtures to come. He is likely to be secure for starts as well, which is big as we head into the congested period.

Q) Darwin – sell or keep?

While there is a chance that he might be benched this week (Klopp tends to rest the South American in the early kickoffs), I’d hold Darwin.

Liverpool face Fulham and Sheffield Utd after this GW so Darwin is a potentially explosive differential to hold.

Q) Wood worth buying over Archer?

With news that Awoniyi is out for a while, I think Wood becomes a good bargain enabler.

I prefer him to Archer for £0.3m more as his fixtures are slightly better but crucially in GW18, he plays Bournemouth at home when Archer has Villa away.

Our bench strength might be tested in GW18 with Man City and Brentford blanking.

Q) Play Archer or Diaby/Palmer/Gordon?

Archer has a xGi per 90 of 0.12 this season.
For context: Ben Davies, Patterson, Ake, Varane, Bissouma, Barkley, Brownhill have a better xGi per 90.