Thread by @TOrynski

In this interview, a Polish military analyst Michał Fiszer calls for Europe to stop pretending Russia invasion on Ukraine has nothing to do with us. It's worth reading if you can, if not, so I will give you some digest in English 🧵

wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,1…

1. "We are where Europe was in September 1939. People back then also weren't aware it's the World War. They thought "Ok, Hitler invaded Poland, but that will be eat, why would he need to go anywhere else?"

2. Meanwhile Russians are telling us they are planning to go further West. They officially have discussions with academics on prime time TV "after we take over Ukraine and Poland, should we go West or South from there"?

3. Biden knows they are serious. Polish politicians know they are serious. But people in the West dont' believe that. "How they would do it, they are stuck in the trenches in the Ukraine as it is!" they say.

4. But from the Russian point of view, things are going well. They went into Ukraine and secured their position. They just have to wait until the West gets bored with helping Ukraine and then they will be able to get going again. They use this time to stock up.

5. The Western Europe is no match for Russians. They have millions of soldiers. And "the soldier from Norilsk will fare much better in the trenches than a guy from Brussel' suburbs".

6. According to Fiszer what we learned is that technology is not enough to repel meat storms and invasion of the much more numerous forces. It can help if you have a disadvantage, but you won't stop invading hordes riding on hundreds of 1970's tanks.

7. Meanwhile our armies are small and not well equipped. There is a shortage of ammo, a lack of training. The German army is less than half of the Polish one, and the Polish one would be no match for anything coming from Russia in a couple of years.

8. If Trump was right about one thing, is that Europe should not just outsource its security to America. Even if he won't be the next president, US can't commit too great forces. They still have to think about China etc.

9. Fiszer points out, that NATO pretends it's not about them, while Russia makes it clear in all the ways possible they are going on about NATO. We should stop pretending and take Russia's thread seriously.

10. Meanwhile Russia is clear what their geopolitical aims are "multi-polar world" in their version means "US gets Americas, China gets Asia and we get Europe".

11. So what should be done? The west should stop beating around the bush, stop making red lines, and just start seriously helping Ukraine to win the war - no ifs, no buts, no "perhaps they can negotiate and give Russia a bit of Donbass in exchange for peace?"

12. Russia won't be happy with that, just as Hitler was not happy with Sudetenland. What needs to be done is to Russia to get its arse kicked so badly, that they won't be able even to dream about further conquests for decades.

13. In Fiszer's words: Ukraine needs to be able to do the job and sort Russia for us before they even get here. "They need to become Poland in 1920" (In 1920 Poland - with Ukraine btw. - stopped Bolshevik invasion and pushed Russians back east). NATO planes should support them.

14. Fiszer notes that western Politicians began realising that Russia is a threat and start act on it. We can all see it. Germany made a big u-turn. Macron reforms the army. Sweden and Finland join NATO. This is all good, but, according for him, not enough.

15. The Politicians will be afraid to really act - as people still think it's some war in some backward eastern European country and it has nothing to do with them.

16. I can see it too. People in the West either don't see Russia as a serious threat to them or panic and are afraid that any involvement from the West will end in nuclear armageddon.

17. So what do I think about Fiszer's arguments? Is he just scaremongering, or there is something in what he says?

Well, he is an expert. His analysis is usually very good. And we know by now that the Western Europe should listen to us more, as we know Russia better.

18. And last but not least: what have we to lose if we helped Ukraine while Russia's grandiose plans were unreal all along?

The worst that can happen is that Ukraine will be free sooner and fewer innocent people will die.

I'll say: let's go for it! What are we waiting for!