Thread by @aliamjadrizvi

This could be the first war Israel could lose.

What does Hamas want, aside from its long-stated goal of eradicating Israel as a Jewish state from the map?

Let’s break it down:

(THREAD) ➡️

> Conduct an attack so heinous that it will embed tribal hate in its victims for generations. Check.

> Provoke a tremendous overreaction from Israel that kills tens of thousands of innocent Palestinians, advancing Hamas's aims of eclipsing any sympathy Israel temporarily gained for the worst terrorist attack in its history. Check.

> Knowing it doesn't have the military strength to achieve its goals, leveraging Israel's military strength against Palestinians to make the Palestinian cause the world's focus, painting Israel as a pariah, and weaponizing the world's empathy against its enemy. Check.

> Ensuring an endless supply of future recruits, devastated, angered, and rendered hopeless by the bombing and killing of their children and parents. Check.

> Compelling other Arab states to abandon their recent efforts to normalize relations with Israel, particularly torpedoing the Saudi-Israel deal. Check.

> Castrating the Palestinian Authority further as a tool of the Israeli military with no spine or structure to effect any change. Check.

> Gaining the support of a majority of American and European youths (seen in several polls) for the Palestinian cause with a phenomenally effective social media campaign that highlights, by the second, the images of thousands of innocent children brutalized by Israeli bombs. Check.

> Annihilating the bipartisan support that Israel has had for decades in the United States, a fracture also bolstered by Netanyahu's increasing affiliation with far right and religious parties both in Israel and the US. Check.

> Creating a deep cleft among American Jews, who are now increasingly split between supporting Israel and distancing themselves from it. Check.

> Sowing deep divisions between Israel and its international allies, who are recoiling at the excesses and recklessness of the IDF, which increasingly seems to use "Hamas uses civilians as human shields..."—a legitimate reason—as an illegitimate excuse. Check.

> Driving the rise not just of anti-Israeli sentiment, but anti-Semitism itself around the world. Check.

I have never seen so many horrific images of suffering and dying children with such frequency in my lifetime. For most young people on social media, this is all they know about the conflict.

I honestly think most parents have no idea about the kinds of graphic, nightmarish images their kids are seeing on TikTok and Instagram, of crying children, faces half-blown off, flesh ripped open, bones exposed, yet alive. Seven, eight, nine-year-olds. Stuff you wouldn't even let your kids see simulated in cartoons or CGI.

But they're seeing it every day, all day, and it's real.

Every time pro-Israel people dismiss these images as inevitable "collateral damage" in a "just war", it helps Hamas. And every time pro-Palestinian people refuse to condemn Hamas, it helps Hamas.

Feel free to come at me in the comments, but angry and impulsive reactions are what led to this in the first place. And they're not going to change any of the facts above.

For Israel to win this war, it needs to have a long-term, well-thought-out strategy that is enduring and (as difficult as this may be) compassionate.

For Hamas to win this war, it just has to survive.