Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
@TRyanGregory
Nov 26 • 10 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Here is a quick reminder of what variant trackers have been saying for months now.

🧵
1. The pattern has not been "one new variant, one big wave" since summer 2022 in most places. Rather, there is a soup of rapidly-evolving variant lineages that keep the baseline high. It's not about tsunamis, it's the high sea level.
I've been saying it's not about tsunamis but rising sea level since October 2022, and especially since January 2023.

2. The virus is not running out of evolutionary space. There are several mechanisms by which quite divergent variants can evolve and are evolving.

I've been talking about the main mechanisms for more than a year.

They are not hypothetical:

i. Intra-host evolution during chronic infections (e.g., original "Omicron" B.1.1.529, Pirola BA.2.86).

ii. Ping-pong zoonosis (e.g., rapid evolution in deer).

iii. Recombination (e.g., XBB, deltacrons like XBC, and Eris x Pirola hybrids like XDD).
3. Focusing on one variant at a time is not appropriate anymore. It's about:

i. Evolving lineages (e.g., not stock BA.2.86 per se, but its descendants like JN.1 et al.).

ii. Particular mutations that occur in multiple lineages (e.g., FLip mutations).

4. The lineages that were nicknamed early have indeed proven to be the ones to watch. We have been quite conservative in assigning new nicknames, preferring instead to refer to "clans" for the evolving lineages. Summary of currently circulating variants with formal designations as VUMs or VOIs and/or nicknames. Some of them only have nicknames or are only VUMs, but there is generally very strong overlap. In some cases, nicknames came first, in others VUM designation came first.
Arcturus clan: XBB.1.16*, FU, GY, HF, JF, JM

Eris clan: EG.5*, HK, HV, JG, JJ, JR, KB

Acrux clan: XBB.2.3*, GE, GJ, GM, GS, GZ, HG, HH, JA, JE, JS, JU, JY
Orthrus clan: CH.1.1, DV, FJ, FK, FS, GP, GQ, JL, JP, JV

Pirola clan: BA.2.86*, JN, JQ

Kraken clan: XBB.1.5*, EK, EL, EM, EU, FD, FG, FH, FT, FZ, GB, GC, GF, GG, GK, GN, GR, GU, GV, HA, HC, HD, HJ, HM, HP, HQ, HR, HS, HT, HY, HZ, JB, JD, JK, JZ, KA

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with T. Ryan Gregory

T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TRyanGregory

T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Nov 25
Is your argument valid or is it a logical fallacy? Let's explore.
1. Calling out hypocrisy vs. Tu quoque fallacy:

✅ Calling out hypocrisy: "You criticizing others for doing bad things while failing to acknowledge the bad things you do is hypocritical. Your bad things should *also* be criticized and you should face up to them."
❌ Tu quoque ("you also"): "Your criticism of the bad things I do is not valid, or the bad things I do are justified, because you do bad things also."

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tu_quoque…
Read 7 tweets
T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Nov 16
I once read an explanation for why folks like Jehovah's Witnesses and Mormons engage in what are mostly futile attempts to recruit new followers. It never made any sense to me why so much energy would be invested in what is almost always an unsuccessful project.

1/
The reason, according to the former member, is that it's not actually about convincing new people to join. it's about having the proselytizers rejected and even ridiculed by outsiders. Cohesion is then strengthened as it bilsters an "us vs. the world" narrative.

2/
I have really struggled to understand why the propaganda during this war has been so obviously, even comically, ineffective. I have heard arguments that the intent is to undermine confidence in news reports generally.

3/
Read 11 tweets
T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Nov 10
One argument I am really tired of is the idea that people focus on what Israel does because they're antisemitic. *I have no doubt that is true in far too many cases*, but having been accused of it myself, let me discuss why this is unfair as a blanket criticism.

🧵

1/
1. The premise is false. I also protested the Iraq war 20 years ago. If I had been alive, I am sure I would have protested the Vietnam war as well. I also *regularly* call out antisemitism, racism, sexism, Islamophobia, homophobia, transphobia, and other hate and always have.

2/
2. Many of us in Canada who oppose the war have also been very critical of our own government (regardless of party) on human rights issues such as performative statements and inaction on Indigenous issues, selling arms to human rights abusers like Saudi Arabia, etc.

3/
Read 13 tweets
T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Nov 2
I'm going to keep a collection of what I have found to be the most thoughtful and thought-provoking articles and threads on the current conflict. Feel free to bookmark.
What Happens When We Lose Sight of Our Shared Humanity

nytimes.com/2023/11/01/opi…
What Should American Jews Do With Our Fear?

slate.com/news-and-polit…
Read 10 tweets
T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Oct 24
There are some things we all agree (right?) should be off the table entirely when it comes to war. Things like chemical and biological weapons, torture, abuse of POWs, using human shields, intentionally targeting civilians.

🧵
Some things many of us think should also never be an option, but major powers disagree. Nuclear weapons and landmines, for example.

Then there are major differences in how tolerable some things are, such as how much collateral damage and civilian casualties are acceptable.
So how did we end up with some things that are just off limits no matter what (indeed, stopping their use has been cited as a reason to go to war, as with supposed WMDs in Iraq)?

This is how: international laws based on hard-learned lessons from horrible past warfare.
Read 7 tweets
T. Ryan Gregory Profile picture
Oct 21
After 9/11, America received an incredible outpouring of support from around the world.

Their terrible leaders then utterly squandered it in favour of pursuing their own agenda under the guise of a war on terror.

What were the results?

1/
Hundreds of thousands of civilians killed.

Less freedom (PATRIOT Act).

Torture and other atrocities.

Disinformation (WMDs).

Cost of $3 trillion.

Decade-long quagmire.

Taliban in control of Afghanistan.

Rise of ISIS.

Irreplaceable cultural treasures destroyed.

2/
Again, there was widespread support for the US to respond to the terrorist attacks and agreement on the need to combat the perpetrators.

Then there were massive global protests.

It was framed as anti-American or pro-terrorism to question the actual actions taken.

3/
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Send Email!

:(