3/ The most likely explanation is that the wallet was generated from bad entropy - perhaps a brainwallet, or too few dice rolls/coin flips, or an insecure PRNG.
Let this be a reminder not to take shortcuts with your entropy, and ideally to use multisig for very large sums.
4/ It's unclear why the transaction was quickly fee-bumped using RBF.
If it was a low-entropy wallet, perhaps multiple attackers were competing to steal the funds?
It could make sense for automated low-entropy wallet sweeping scripts to be configured to spend a high percentage of the value in fees to hinder competitors (or victims) trying to broadcast replacements.
6/ Since the wallet is compromised, this message could have been signed by either the victim or attacker (or anyone else who brute-forced the bad entropy).
If @AntPoolofficial returns the fee, they'll need another way to verify the victim's identity.
I had initially discounted that possibility, but after receiving a tip-off I took another look.
The overpaid fee came from a hot wallet reusing the address bc1qr3...zpw3, which started operating in June of this year.
The on-chain activity is consistent with automated processing of fiat-denominated withdrawals, and also closely matches the behavior of a now inactive wallet bc1qhs...kx4n, which is labelled as PayPal on .
a substack post going around at the moment claims that a single entity owns 64% of all inscriptions created since early March, paying an eye-watering 1056 BTC for the privilege
I've seen a lot of takes already suggesting this sounds like market manipulation, money laundering, or a well-funded attack on Bitcoin by wealthy adversaries.
but the truth is much less exciting.
inscriptions are created with a two-phase commit/reveal process.
first, a taproot output is created which commits to the inscription data and a public key.
Their hot wallet avoids address reuse, so it's tricky to estimate a balance, but tracing payouts on-chain suggests they might have about 12685 of that BTC remaining in hot addresses.
Withdrawals were processed in peel-chains of only 30 batched payouts at a time, which might genuinely explain throughput issues.