Thread by @RayTrainToTrop

We here at the Capital Region Transportation Forum

Speaker starts talking about public and rail transportation successes and developments in the DMV.

Now we’re moving onto challenges.

- $750M WMATA fiscal cliff
- Sounds like plan is to get short-term relief for WMATA before getting long-term stability
- Maryland transportation budget shortfall
- Gas tax shortfall

While the talk has so far been about transit instead of cars and highways, the sponsors are a mix of consulting and engineering firms, toll road operators, and ride share companies.

Georgetown COO: The world is watching [our problems and how we solve them].

Dr. Cinzia Cirillo of UMD from their @MarylandTransp1 on DMV traffic:

- 20% rise in afternoon travel times 2019 vs now, also rise on weekends
- Increase due to people taking more leisure in lieu of commuting to and from work

@MarylandTransp1 Standard traffic model:

@MarylandTransp1 The newer models can measure individual activity. First is showing where individuals are in a day in DC. Second is showing a car traffic model.

@MarylandTransp1

@MarylandTransp1 Purple line ridership model is on the conservative side, but that’s to be expected because it doesn’t model induced growth.

@MarylandTransp1 Greater Washington Board of Trade CEO on @WMATA:
- says great progress under Randy but system still isn’t where it was before pandemic
- Governance model needs total reworking in order to make metro viable

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata Now @wmataGM Randy Clarke comes up. PowerPoint slide goes dark and he jokes that it’s because the fiscal cliff is just that bad.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Randy took the bus and walked to Georgetown. He then said we need to increase Metro accessibility in Georgetown either BOS study.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Randy says he’d like WMATA to be better integrated with other transportation agencies: bus and regional rail.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Randy talks about the view from the plane landing at DCA. Not the view of DC, but the view of the transit oriented development on the Rosslyn Corridor.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Randy: Young people want walkable cities with good public transportation and not be car dependent.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Metro highlights, per Randy and slide deck:
- 85% satisfaction
- Most federal taps in 3.5 years (guess they track that)
- Highest post pandemic ridership day
- Highest post-Thanksgiving Sunday travel since 2014
- About 1/4 reduction in crime

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Inflation has meant that operating and even the dedicated capital funding has decreased as they were not indexed.
If capital money was indexed to inflation, they’d have enough money for capital projects through 2037.
Inflation and 3% cap and credit hurt Metro’s operating funds.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Metro financial woes are about…
1/3 subsidy credit
1/3 inflation and collective bargaining
1/3 decreased revenue from post-pandemic ridership

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM WMATA has maintained operating costs at or below levels of other transit agencies, both in the regional and other peer agencies.
Without silver line expansion or Potomac Yard, it would only be 3.7% CAGR operating growth over last 5 years.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Using capital budget to fund operations will cause that budget to expire in 2029 or even 2028. May be some wiggle room with lower interest rates on next bond cycle.
Reducing capital budget will affect projects including signal modernization, which is becoming a “problem.”

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Savings Metro has made, per Randy.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Hiring freeze and six-month layoff notice begins in January.
Budget needs to be balanced by July 1, 2024.
Subsidy cap needs to increase or else it is *impossible* for Metro to not decimate service.
Hiring freeze will cause degradation of service starting in winter/Cherry blossom

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Randy’s closing remarks:
- Metro is strong but future is very uncertain
- But he is optimistic

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Q: What conversations have you had with federal government?
A: Metro has a regular scheduled call with OMB and provides data to them. Randy says they want more people to come in so Metro gets revenues. He’d tell the Prez that working in person makes an organization stronger.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Now it’s time for the Secretary of Transportation panel. The secretaries of DC, VA, and MD are all here today.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM The moderator is pro-public transit.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Note that this might not be CAGR. I’m not sure.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM DDOT Sec: “Safety for us is slowing things down”

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM DDOT Sec:
- Vision Zero isn’t working as deaths are in the 40s
- Expanding automated traffic enforcement
- They are noticing distracted drivers are a big issue. Higher number than normal of drivers are dying, signifying high speeds.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM It seems like DC may be shifting in their approach to dangerous driving.

DDOT Sec: We are now trying to really focus on that small subset of very dangerous high speed drivers where perfect intersections and automated enforcement doesn’t change their behavior.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM VA Sec: Makes funny remark about being in charge of rocket launches

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Rough quote from VA Sec: We made huge time savings at DMV *without adding any money, Randy* from 30 min prepandemic to 8-9 min today. We just made employees focus on their work.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM VA Sec: Really focusing on traffic and transit deaths. Says you can’t engineer out of it. You have to “educate and enforce.”

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM MD Sec: Last year, about 550 traffic fatalities with a third being pedestrians and cyclists. This year, on track for about 600.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM MD Sec: Work with Department of Environment to make sure what we do doesn’t make us go backwards… how can we get people out of their cars or into transit. Everything we plan now comes with that lens.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM MD Sec: Also focus on sustainability and equity.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM MD Sec: Core issue is safety of individuals using our transportation systems.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Q: Moderator asks about Metro death spiral. Bluntly asks the secretaries how we can keep Metro healthy, safe, and funded.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM MD Sec: Metro is very important to making us world class. But we also have other financial issues such as funding Baltimore’s transit system and their transportation funding hole.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM MD Sec: “We’ll have to make hard decisions” because we operate on a budget like a household. (Personal commentary here, but households can’t raise taxes.)

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM VA Sec: Metro is important and Randy is making good decisions, but…

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM VA Sec: WMATA has “intractable” long term problems.
- Declining ridership since 2019
- System expanding but less people riding (personal commentary: Uber)
- Fares have been relatively flat
- SAYS THERE IS MORE SUPPLY THAN DEMAND

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM VA Sec: No blank check to WMATA. How can we get WMATA the best they can be? How can we “right-size” this thing? Talks about high administrative costs. Talks about highest service level this year but ridership is down.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM VA Sec: the question is how often does the service have to be to make it viable?

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM VA Sec: Personal anecdote about deciding how to get from Crystal City to Ballston. Look at price and time of rideshare vs time. Should fare to Ballston be $7 instead of $5? Should train run 30% less frequently?

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM VA Sec: “At the end of the day, some of that’s going to be people, some of that’s going to be service, some of that’s going to be fares.”

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Before the VA Sec’s latest comment, he also talked about fare evasion. Said they’re losing lots of money. Says some stations are at over 50%.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM VA Sec: Says only 8 million of 28 million bus riders paid. (Personal comment: is this true?)

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM VA Sec: Closes by saying that while WMATA doesn’t need to make money, it needs to right-size the service by balancing supply and demand.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Multiple times during the VA Sec’s speech, crowd went silent I think due to shock of how opposed he was to funding Metro at current service levels.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM DDOT Sec: If Metro dies so does DC.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM DDOT Sec: DC is trying to increase demand for Metro services, such as with bus priority.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM MD Sec: Regarding new (American Legion?) bridge, we need to make sure it’s multimodal.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM We’re onto other questions btw, including above tweet.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM VA Sec: Regarding (toll?) operators. Lots of P3s. Use private model for best results. It’s been good for Virginia.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM DDOT Sec: Construction costs rapidly rising. New money is paying for these increases. Need 3 new/refurbished bridges: H St bridge next to Union Station and two others I didn’t here.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM DDOT Sec: Other projects also include DuPont Circle deckover and 11 St Bridge and park. But not much in pipeline because of budget constraints and rising costs.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM Q: Share one key transportation policy to realize your administration’s visions for their jurisdiction and the region.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM MD: Safety. Revitalize complete streets. References VA Sec that infrastructure can deter, but not fully prevent, unsafe behavior.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM VA: I’ve once been T-boned by a car when riding a bike. Not seriously injured. As we introduce more bike paths and put more people in conflict with traffic, you contribute to safety problem.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM VA: Brings up example of not knowing what to do when there’s a center-running bike lane. No training or teaching since then on what laws have trained. No enforcement either, so what do you expect?

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM VA: Stop spending engineering money on “saving people from themselves.” We need to educate and enforce.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM DC: Moving from complete streets to complete networks. Early on: make every street a bike lane. Now says we need to make fewer streets bike lanes but make more of them protected. Also all in on some streets for rapid efficient bus lanes. And some streets just for driving.

@MarylandTransp1 @wmata @wmataGM It was fun, it was frightening, it was informative. I’m glad I could be here and allow at least a few of you to follow along.