These two things are simultaneously true:
• The richest Americans are the richest in the world
• Food poverty is more severe in America than in any other developed country
To reiterate, a higher percentage of people in America have to skip meals because they don’t have enough money for food, than in not only Britain & France but also Lithuania & Slovenia.
By this measure, extreme poverty is worse in the US than in any of these poorer countries.
But despite such wide disparities in US living standards, a fascinating new study finds that:
• Americans are less supportive of efforts to redistribute income from rich to poor than people in peer countries
• After reading about inequality in the US they become even less keen!
Why?
Could it be that Americans still don’t appreciate the severity of US inequality?
It doesn’t look like it: Americans are more likely to describe their country’s income distribution as "very unfair" than people in any other peer country
But: Americans are by far the least likely to say government should try to narrow the gap between rich and poor, and the most likely to say it’s up to low-income people themselves.
The old "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" philosophy
As it happens, Americans are also the most likely to say that despite the gap between rich and poor being so large, nothing should be done about it 🤷♂️
"Yes some people are very rich and some people are very poor, that’s life", essentially.
And this brings us onto the American dream aspect: more than any other country Americans believe firmly that hard work brings success…
And Americans view themselves as more upwardly mobile than people from other countries, feeling that they will move up the ranks of society in the coming years.
Between this and the "hard work brings success" chart, this is the American Dream distilled in two graphics.
But that’s just perceptions. How about reality?
The US actually has one of the *lowest* rates of social mobility of any developed country.
Both upward mobility and the idea that hard work translates into success are *less true in the US than almost anywhere else*
So, a strong culture of aspiration, meritocracy and individual responsibility. Many would argue these all are positives, and I wouldn’t even disagree.
Britain could certainly do with more aspiration!
And these beliefs surely all play a role in America’s entrepreneurialism and wealth generation.
The US as a whole is very rich. It’s full of innovators, and attracts the best from around the world.
But these strong beliefs in individual responsibility and the accompanying scepticism of government intervention make it easier for inequalities to arise, and much harder to address them.
Americans recognise that inequality is a problem, but consistently reject the solutions.
• Higher taxes on the rich? No thanks.
• Increase the minimum wage? Nah.
• "Inequality is not government’s problem, it’s individuals’ problem"
Now, does all of this mean extreme wealth and extreme poverty have to go hand in hand?
I don’t think so. You can have a society where the rich do very well and the poor still have a good standard of living.
But America is clearly not currently getting that balance right:
In US society, a culture of aspiration and individual responsibility appears to breed apathy towards inequality and especially towards government intervention, leaving the poorest to fend for themselves.
And here’s the ingenious study from @PepperCulpepper and co that found that Americans become *even less supportive of redistribution* after reading about US inequality banklash.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sitefiles/rigg…
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The number of people travelling from Europe to the US in recent weeks has plummeted by as much as 35%, as travellers have cancelled plans in response to Trump’s policies and rhetoric, and horror stories from the border.
Denmark saw one of the steepest declines, in an indication that anger over Trump’s hostility towards Greenland may be contributing to the steep drop-off in visitor numbers.
Corporate quotes are usually pretty dry, but the co-founder of major travel website Kayak wasn’t mincing his words:
Recent results from major international tests show that the average person’s capacity to process information, use reasoning and solve novel problems has been falling since around the mid 2010s.
What should we make of this?
Nobody would argue that the fundamental biology of the human brain has changed in that time span. People’s underlying intellectual capacity is surely undimmed.
But there is growing evidence that the extent to which people can practically apply that capacity has been diminishing.
For such an important topic, there’s remarkably little long-term data on attention spans, focus etc.
But one source that has consistently tracked this is the Monitoring The Future survey, which finds a steep rise in the % of people struggling to concentrate or learn new things.
NEW: The actions of Trump and Vance in recent weeks highlight something under-appreciated.
The American right is now ideologically closer to countries like Russia, Turkey and in some senses China, than to the rest of the west (even the conservative west).
In the 2000s, US Republicans thought about the world in similar ways to Britons, Europeans, Canadians.
This made for productive relationships regardless of who was in the White House.
The moderating layers around Trump #1 masked the divergence, but with Trump #2 it’s glaring.
In seven weeks Trump’s America has shattered decades-long western norms and blindsided other western leaders with abrupt policy changes.
This is because many of the values of Trump’s America are not the values of western liberal democracies.
NEW: updated long-run gap in voting between young men and women in Germany:
The gender gap continues to widen, but contrary to what is often assumed, young men continue to vote roughly in line with the overall population, while young women have swung very sharply left.
My wish for the next election is that poll trackers look like the one on the right 👉 not the left
This was yet another election where the polling showed it could easily go either way, but most of the charts just showed two nice clean lines, one leading and one trailing. Bad!
Pollsters and poll aggregators have gone to great lengths to emphasise the amount of uncertainty in the polls in recent weeks...
But have generally still put out charts and polling toplines that encourage people to ignore the uncertainty and focus on who’s one point ahead. Bad!
The thing about human psychology is, once you give people a nice clean number, it doesn’t matter how many times you say "but there’s an error margin of +/- x points, anything is possible".
People are going to anchor on that central number. We shouldn’t enable this behaviour!