John Burn-Murdoch Profile picture
Dec 8 16 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
NEW: Does the American Dream foster inequality?

Let’s start with a shocking stat:

These two things are simultaneously true:
• The richest Americans are the richest in the world
• Food poverty is more severe in America than in any other developed country Image
To reiterate, a higher percentage of people in America have to skip meals because they don’t have enough money for food, than in not only Britain & France but also Lithuania & Slovenia.

By this measure, extreme poverty is worse in the US than in any of these poorer countries. Image
But despite such wide disparities in US living standards, a fascinating new study finds that:
• Americans are less supportive of efforts to redistribute income from rich to poor than people in peer countries
• After reading about inequality in the US they become even less keen! Image
Why?

Could it be that Americans still don’t appreciate the severity of US inequality?

It doesn’t look like it: Americans are more likely to describe their country’s income distribution as "very unfair" than people in any other peer country Image
But: Americans are by far the least likely to say government should try to narrow the gap between rich and poor, and the most likely to say it’s up to low-income people themselves.

The old "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" philosophy Image
As it happens, Americans are also the most likely to say that despite the gap between rich and poor being so large, nothing should be done about it 🤷‍♂️

"Yes some people are very rich and some people are very poor, that’s life", essentially. Image
And this brings us onto the American dream aspect: more than any other country Americans believe firmly that hard work brings success… Image
And Americans view themselves as more upwardly mobile than people from other countries, feeling that they will move up the ranks of society in the coming years.

Between this and the "hard work brings success" chart, this is the American Dream distilled in two graphics. Image
But that’s just perceptions. How about reality?

The US actually has one of the *lowest* rates of social mobility of any developed country.

Both upward mobility and the idea that hard work translates into success are *less true in the US than almost anywhere else* Image
So, a strong culture of aspiration, meritocracy and individual responsibility. Many would argue these all are positives, and I wouldn’t even disagree.

Britain could certainly do with more aspiration!
And these beliefs surely all play a role in America’s entrepreneurialism and wealth generation.

The US as a whole is very rich. It’s full of innovators, and attracts the best from around the world.
But these strong beliefs in individual responsibility and the accompanying scepticism of government intervention make it easier for inequalities to arise, and much harder to address them.
Americans recognise that inequality is a problem, but consistently reject the solutions.
• Higher taxes on the rich? No thanks.
• Increase the minimum wage? Nah.
• "Inequality is not government’s problem, it’s individuals’ problem" Image
Now, does all of this mean extreme wealth and extreme poverty have to go hand in hand?

I don’t think so. You can have a society where the rich do very well and the poor still have a good standard of living.

But America is clearly not currently getting that balance right: Image
In US society, a culture of aspiration and individual responsibility appears to breed apathy towards inequality and especially towards government intervention, leaving the poorest to fend for themselves.

Here’s my column in full: ft.com/content/6a6175…
And here’s the ingenious study from @PepperCulpepper and co that found that Americans become *even less supportive of redistribution* after reading about US inequality banklash.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sitefiles/rigg…

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More from @jburnmurdoch

Nov 20
NEW: how worried should the Democrats be by recent polls, and are they losing young and non-white voters?

Recent polls show significant shifts away from Biden among core Democratic demographics, but is everything as it first appears?

Let’s take a closer look Image
First, here are those same swings by age group, but now we’ve split them by survey method 👀👀👀

The size — and even direction — of swings varies significantly by methodology, and those steep declines among young voters only show up in telephone surveys, not online polls Image
But you might notice something else here: the different methods also disagree on where we started, particularly among older age-groups.

Online polls think that ahead of the 2020 election the oldest voters leaned towards Trump; phone surveys think they were leaning Biden 🤔 Image
Read 19 tweets
Nov 10
NEW: Generative AI is already taking white collar jobs

An ingenious study by @xianghui90 @oren_reshef @Zhou_Yu_AI looked at what happened on a huge online freelancing platform after ChatGPT launched last year.

The answer? Freelancers got fewer jobs, and earned much less Image
The steeper decline in earnings than jobs is particularly striking, because it means that not only is generative AI directly taking away digital freelancers’ work, it’s also devaluing the work that they do still carry out.
Most strikingly, the study also found that freelancers who previously had the highest earnings and completed the most jobs were no less likely to see their employment and earnings decline than other workers. In other words, being more skilled was no shield against disruption.
Read 17 tweets
Oct 28
NEW: we need to talk about UK graduate wages, and the idea that Britain sends too many people to university.

American readers should stick around for the UK/US comparisons 👀

Let’s start with this: the UK graduate wage premium has fallen substantially over the last 25 years Image
To spell out what means:

In 1997, graduates in the UK earned almost 50% more per hour than non-graduates. Today, that’s down to a bit less than 40% more.

Having a degree brings back smaller rewards in the job market than it used to. Image
In isolation, this is not necessarily surprising.

As more people go to university, having a degree becomes less of a luxury.

In economic terms, as the supply of graduates increases, all other things being equal the price of graduates (their wages relative to non-grads) falls.
Read 18 tweets
Oct 18
Some quick thoughts on why large parts of the mainstream media keep slipping up on Gaza/Israel (and why it was the same at times with Covid):

The main reason is a failure to keep pace with modern news gathering techniques, but there’s more.
With the proliferation of photos/footage, satellite imagery and map data, forensic video/image analysis and geolocation (~OSINT) has clearly been a key news gathering technique for several years now. A key news gathering technique *completely absent from most newsrooms*.
Obviously not every journalist should be an OSINT specialist, just as not every journalist is a specialist in combing through financial accounts, or scraping websites, or doing undercover investigations. But any large news org should have *some* OSINT specialists.
Read 15 tweets
Sep 29
NEW: the problem with using simple polls to measure nuanced opinions

Ask Brits or Americans about immigration, and they’ll tell you it’s too high.

But ask about specific groups of immigrants, and only a minority want numbers reduced. Plenty want an increase!

So which is it? Image
Well, it’s both! The public is under no obligation to hold coherent policy views, and a single question will not capture the full picture.

In this week’s column, I argue politics has become far too poll-oriented, and this is doing nobody any favours.

on.ft.com/3teFCTd
Back to immigration:

The general question is used as a barometer for attitudes to immigration, but the subgroup questions paint a much more complete picture.

Even when asked about people simply coming to the UK/US for a better life, only a minority want these numbers reduced. Image
Read 17 tweets
Sep 22
NEW: a recent study found a fascinating pattern

People are becoming more zero-sum in their thinking, and weaker economic growth may explain why

Older generations grew up with high growth and formed aspirational attitudes; younger ones have faced low growth and are more zero-sum Image
My column this week explores the implications for politics and society in a world where zero-sum thinking becomes the norm on.ft.com/450fGYI
In the rich world, Millennials are much more likely than boomers to agree with statements like "people can only get rich at the expense of others", or "success in life is mainly about luck, not effort".

These are perfectly rational beliefs based on those generations’ experiences
Read 16 tweets

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