This @DouthatNYT column urges Biden to accept an immigration deal with Republicans. But the piece largely erases GOP agency, not engaging with the ways the GOP itself is an obstacle to any deal. 1/
Rs want to gut Biden’s parole programs. But these provide an orderly alternative to seeking asylum at the border. Conservatives who want a deal should admit this demand is extreme and unreasonable. 2/
Rs want to give POTUS authority (i.e. Trump 2025) to end asylum. We all know Stephen Miller/MAGA are *the* obstacle to any deal that doesn’t slash legal immigration. Look at these demands! 3/
.@DouthatNYT cites a new paper to argue higher migration makes voters more conservative. He says the issue declined in salience during the Trump years (because he slowed migration), helping Biden win in 2020. I want to suggest a complicating factor.
First, here's Douthat: 4/
@DouthatNYT President Trump's polling on immigration was awful even when another crisis made the issue salient. Contra @DouthatNYT, here's my explanation for how it plays for voters: 5/
I don't claim the issue is good for Dems. It does hurt, especially now. But why did many leading restrictionist candidates lose in 2022? Yes, abortion, but still, those writing on this issue should engage w/the fact that it often isn't *that much* of a silver bullet for Rs. 6/
What does it mean that all eight senators in the key southwest states (AZ NV NM CO), ones where immigration is a big issue, now caucus with Dems, after Biden won all four in 2020?
It’s time to stop using 2016 as the only touchstone here. 7/
Biden’s $ ask = billions in border security, more detention, faster asylum processing, which Rs should like. Yes, Biden should want a deal. But Ds agree! They too want something done! 8/
I’ll go further: Ds should make more concessions. A real compromise is available. To those who demand Ds act on the issue: Do you see something like this below as acceptable? 9/9
Yes, things look very bleak. Trump is very competitive in polls, despite:
*Facing multiple criminal indictments
*Openly drawing up a blueprint for autocracy
*Vowing to jail political opponents
*Threatening mass persecution of "vermin" voters
It's ugly how fast Republicans snapped into "prosecute Media Matters" mode to protect their favorite billionaire oligarch. See the Missouri AG and Mike Davis, possibly Trump's next AG.
This is the kind of lawyer Trump allies want for a second term. 2/ wapo.st/3GcdvXZ
Musk's case against Media Matters is pretty weak, even if you take his argument seriously, as I tried to do here.
The simple fact of the matter is that juxtapositions of ads with far right extremist content can and do happen. 3/
Climate change can inflame tensions in the Dem coalition. But in Michigan, union officials tell me that after long negotiations, the package transitioning to 100% clean electricity ended up pleasing green activists *and* labor.
It's extraordinary that Trump's advisers would openly advertise plans that are way more extreme than what Trump did as president. They think disapproval of Biden on immigration gives them an opening to sell the public on unrestrained nativist savagery. 2/
The border is a big problem for Biden. But don't forget: Big majorities also disapproved of Trump on the issue, opposing his "solutions" even during migrant surges.
Enough of the weird collective amnesia about this.
Don't overlook this: The big victory in Virginia isn't just about abortion. It also shows that the reactionary "parents rights" nonsense has utterly fizzled.
I talked to Dems on the ground about how the right is alienating voters. 1/
Strikingly, more than $5.5 million was spent on ads about education in the Virginia legislative contests. Some GOP candidates modeled their campaigns on Youngkin's successful "parents rights" campaign of 2021.
One winner, Schuyler VanValkenburg, ran an ad that should be required viewing for Dems. Rather than ducking the book ban fight, he turned it into a high-minded debate over free inquiry by curious kids.